WKU Football: Keys to Victory against MTSU
Western Kentucky will go to a bowl game. Western Kentucky has clinched a winning record. Western Kentucky (7–4, 5–2 C-USA) has a chance to…
Western Kentucky will go to a bowl game. Western Kentucky has clinched a winning record. Western Kentucky (7–4, 5–2 C-USA) has a chance to finish off an incredible turnaround by beating its most hated rival, Middle Tennessee.
This 105-year-old rivalry is about as historically even as it could be, with MTSU owning a slight edge currently (34–32–1). Western had a chance to tie it up last season, but Mike Sanford’s version of the team struggled to remotely stay in the game, despite Middle doing virtually everything it could to help WKU stay close. WKU fell 29–10 in 2018.
Both teams should expect a war. Regardless of record, this game generally comes down to the last possession. Controversy and drama thrive.
Since the rivalry resumed after a long hiatus (between 1991 and 2007), almost every edition of the rivalry has been close. Seven of the 11 games since 2007 have been final margins within five points. There have been multiple overtime thrillers. MTSU leads 6–5 since 2007, and no team has won more than three in a row. Blocked field goals, walk-off scores, and instant replays with huge, game-altering implications define 100 Miles of Hate of late.
Middle Tennessee (4–7, 3–4 C-USA) is completely playing for pride. There is absolutely nothing they play for in this game. Rick Stockstill is certainly on the hot seat, despite having a huge buyout that likely prevents that scenario from unfolding.
Really, so is WKU, though. Western knows its fate. The Hilltoppers are going somewhere to a bowl and not winning a conference championship. What does WKU have to play for in all honesty?
That being said, neither team should expect a snoozefest. Therefore, what does WKU need to do to take down the Blue Raiders?
Keys to Victory
Produce
Middle gets more yards offensively than WKU, so that is an absolute immediate threat to the Tops. If Middle could get in the 300s (and obviously 400s) in yards, they would absolutely stand a chance against Western. How does Western keep pace with a pretty good offense? Produce yardage and score yourselves. Get touchdowns instead of field goals and field goals instead of nothing. If WKU produces in the stat column, it will likely win. WKU is definitely the better team this year, but anyone that remotely knows Western Football this season knows the offense is not the strength of the team.
MTSU is 114th in the country in yards allowed. It’s time to produce, Tops. If WKU doesn’t produce 400 yards, that’s a poor performance against a bad defense.
Protect the Wet Football
It’s supposed to rain on Saturday. Honestly, I think this would be a key regardless of the weather, but the fact it’s supposed to be raining heavily Saturday really drives the issue home even more. One of WKU’s defensive weaknesses has been forcing turnovers. Middle’s defensive strength is definitely forcing opponents into mistakes (nearly two per game). Again, if Middle makes headway in this department, it spells nailbiter for WKU. It really does feel like WKU has plenty of advantages, but if WKU does not perform well, Middle is perfectly capable. Turnovers help upset bids more than anything else statistically.
Utterly Dominate the Offensive Line of Scrimmage
Western’s offensive line is very, very good and has kept its health throughout the season. Middle’s defensive line is absolutely terrible, only mustering nine sacks in 11 games. That is horrifyingly bad, and on top of that awful number, the defense as a whole gives up over 450 yards per game. If Middle gets a footing and causes trouble in the backfield, that is huge for Middle. Keep in mind, this is not a god awful, hapless football team. This team beat Marshall, and it has won three games in conference.
What it means is if the Middle Tennessee defensive line becomes even remotely effective, it takes the MTSU defense from being one of the worst in the nation to being respectable. Respectable means it can beat you on any given day. Respectable is dangerous. Destroy them.
Make O’Hara Need His Lucky Charms
MTSU’s offense starts and stops with dual-threat QB Asher O’Hara. He accounts for over 300 yards per game, including about 90 on the ground. That’s right. The quarterback is the leading rusher by about 60 yards per game. That’s a fairly unique challenge. Most running quarterbacks run for under 50 yards per game and generally don’t lead the team by a mile, if at all.
Stop him and he’s literally 3/4 of the offense. How could Middle possibly win without him? If I’m Clayton White, I’m spying with a linebacker or rover the whole game, or I’m using DeAngelo Malone as a linebacker again. White generally sags one or both of his defensive ends to monitor mobile QB’s instead of using linebackers. That makes good sense when accounting for a 4–2–5 system. Using a linebacker as a spy limits your unpredictability and your ability to blitz. Using defensive linemen disguises your coverage.
Just Find a Way to Beat Middle
Honestly, who cares how it’s done or by how much? Just win against the hated rival. In rivalry games, important games, and games with high emotion, keeping your wits and ignoring the crazy is extremely key. There is always going to be something funky, people are gonna play dirty, and wild emotions can mess up your team, especially at the beginning of the game.
A perfect example would be the Marshall game. WKU came out flat and spotted Marshall two touchdowns, eventually losing in a thriller by a last-second field goal. Without question, taking one of those back changes the game. That’s what this game could certainly come down to Heart and execution.
Prediction
Honestly, I will NEVER predict a loss to MTSU, but I really feel strongly about this one. This is one of Rick Stockstill’s worst years at the helm of the MUTS. His defense is putrid and he has no running back or receiver with more than 500 yards. In addition to an overall terrible defense, he has no defensive line. These are all crucial to winning and his team is wonderfully concocted to suck.
I see very few ways for MTSU to win. We’ve talked about match-ups all year and I really like this one for Western. Middle almost certainly will not win the line of scrimmage and does not have the skill positions capable of overcoming bad line play.
Let’s not paint this as if Middle has no chance because they really do. First of all, they’re 4–7 and recently lost to two teams getting hot at the end of the year. From a motivation standpoint, they just won on Senior Night last week and should be upset about this season and want to take it out on the Tops. From a skillset point of view, they have some tools to get it done.
They can move the ball. They’ve had some good performances from the defense. The kicker can kick. The punter can punt. They have more pass-break-ups and quarterback hits than their opponents. Interestingly, despite the low sack total, they still get significant numbers of tackles for loss. They have a really good, almost unique quarterback.
That all being said, WKU is just better and should win. It’s just a simple fact that WKU is expected to find a way to win. I believe the tendency for WKU of late is to just smother opponents and never allow them to breathe offensively. I believe WKU will be able to run effectively, and I believe Ty Storey and crew should be able to get it done. In my gut, I think WKU wins this thing in embarrassing fashion. I could always be wrong and expect the unexpected with rivalries. But I’ve got Western Kentucky 37-MTSU 13.
Rain or shine, support the Tops on Senior Day against the MUTS. They deserve it, especially with dealing with our crap last year. They have crafted one of the better turnarounds in college football this season.