WKU Football: Keys to Victory Against Old Dominion
A month of the season is already gone. Thankfully, my subliminal frustration has not boiled up to the point that I said something to the…
A month of the season is already gone. Thankfully, my subliminal frustration has not boiled up to the point that I said something to the tune of “down the toilet”.
That’s because WKU is atop the Conference USA standings, and honestly has a winnable stretch of conference games here to really stretch their lead or consolidate their cushion for what should be an inevitable misstep down the road. The back half of the schedule is much tougher, so take advantage while you can, Tops.
WKU gets what should be a tough test, but a test that the Tops are slightly favored in (Vegas likes WKU by 3.5 currently). Old Dominion is another Conference USA mystery. Unlike UAB, ODU has played good to really good competition and lost, with the exception of squeaking out a win against the crosstown FCS team, Norfolk State. Again, when comparing, that’s something WKU couldn’t do: Beat an FCS squad.
Again the doubt creeps in for both ODU and WKU fans. So let’s break this down from a WKU perspective: How does WKU leave Norfolk victorious?
The Keys To Victory
Don’t Screw Up
I know this is more generic than omeprazole, but WKU has one loss against ODU all-time, and that one loss was an absolute flukefest that took WKU from possibly winning to definitely losing in 2018. WKU got an opportunity at a 57-yard kick, a 52-yard kick, and just had to cleanly tackle a field goal returner to send the game to overtime. Instead, Alex Rinella attempts a 52 yard field goal, ODU fields the ball on the goal line, returns it into the red zone, gets tackled on the sideline after an easy missed tackle, facemask on the Tops, half the distance to the goal, and ODU gets a chip shot to win the game on one untimed down. All of that unfolded in NINE SECONDS of actual game time. Sadly and definitely unfairly, that loss probably cost Mike Sanford his job.
What is my point? WKU needs to be solid in every area, and I firmly believe they would beat ODU. Given the revenge factor, if I’m Tyson Helton, I’m looping that play over and over on the screen during practice to straight up piss off the team into a molten fury. Now, as the rest of these keys will show you, “not screwing up” is extremely difficult against ODU.
Protect the Football
Ty Storey seems to fit the game manager role much more naturally than Steven Duncan. With an offense that is not explosive and a defense that can single-handedly win the game for you, taking care of the football is paramount. There’s a problem with this goal: ODU forces a lot of turnovers (more than two per game) and WKU commits a ton (almost two per game). Storey does seem to be a more seasoned decision maker, and he also has as much or more game experience than Steven Duncan.
Weaving this thought into one of my Keys a little bit here, but ODU has some great cornerbacks. They only allow in the low 200s in passing yards and have twice as many pass break-ups as WKU. They have four different players with interceptions, and of their interceptions, forced fumbles, and recovered fumbles, ten different players have contributed out of 13 opportunities. It’s clearly a team concept defensively for ODU. There is no megastar, but everyone scrapes and claws for the football.
Convert in the Red Zone
Old Dominion’s opponents score a fair amount of points, but they do not gain a ton of yardage. Old Dominion barely gives up 300 yards per game, despite being 1–3 and facing some really good teams. The Monarchs are stingy and don’t give up big plays. They control the clock by running the ball as much as possible offensively. Without question, WKU will probably deal with less time and opportunity offensively than they have been used to. One thing ODU’s defense struggles with is stopping teams once they get into the red zone. Old Dominion’s opponents have scored touchdowns 3/4 of the time and have only been held scoreless once. That is a blaring weakness for a defense that otherwise looks quite formidable.
Crush the Quarterback
ODU has given up 16 sacks already this season. Sure, it could be argued they have faced great competition. That’s fair but look at WKU’s line for comparison. Although they have not faced the same level of competition, WKU has faced four very good defensive fronts themselves. They are way on the other end of the spectrum — a very good offensive line —only giving up four sacks in four games. This is an opportunity for WKU to have a sack and TFL parade. If they don’t and ODU holds its own up front, I see an issue for Western. This seems like a great opportunity for WKU to take control of this game.
If WKU can’t assault the quarterback relentlessly, he is very capable on the ground, and because of his threat to run, he becomes competent passing the football. He only has one passing touchdown on the year but has five rushing scores. He is the Monarchs’ leading rusher. Crush him and you crush the Monarch offense.
Contain the Passing Game
Again, this feels like another weakness on weakness. WKU’s secondary is inconsistent. Last week, it was incredible against a good unit. This week, it pretty much needs to shut down a sub-par unit. ODU throws for 172 yards per game and exactly one receiver has over 100 yards (running back Kesean Strong). He only has 105 yards. By comparison, WKU’s first four receivers have at least 20 more yards than ODU’s most prolific receiver. The running back out of the backfield is certainly a concern in itself. Most teams’ leading receiver is not the running back, so obviously they go to him a lot on the safety valve. Without watching any film, I would say the quarterback has such a difficult time passing that he basically has been told to dump it off when in doubt.
Facing a team so weak in an area is nice, but the pressure is also on you to keep the numbers down. If ODU magically went wild and broke open a few pass plays, Western would quickly be in deep trouble, especially considering a blaring inability to create big plays themselves.
Win the Coaching Battle
If WKU loses, Tyson Helton and his staff will likely have been out-coached. ODU Coach Bobby Wilder has done an overall good job in his tenure at ODU. He knows what he’s doing, and he’s seen a lot of football at this particular level and with this particular program. He knows his kids in and out. His staff has good chemistry. This is not a slouch coaching staff. Look at WKU’s opener against Central Arkansas. What was the biggest play of the game? A UCA trick play that tied the game to open a drive in the second half.
Somehow, Bobby Wilder is fielding a team that musters less than 300 yards of offense, gives up four sacks a game, only forces 1.5 sacks a game, has no player averaging more than 56 yards from scrimmage, has nearly double-digit turnovers in four games despite only one player forcing multiple (2) turnovers, and no real standout freak talents on defense. However, despite all of those deficiencies, the Monarchs have been competitive in every game. That’s coaching, teamwork, belief, and toughness at its finest.
To Tyson Helton’s credit, when has he really just screwed the pooch this year? I would say he’s done very little out of line. There were a few things in the Louisville game, but over four games, if you have less than five things you can nitpick, that’s a job well done. Defensively, Clayton White is not too shabby, either. He has one productive linebacker and a secondary that gives up big plays and his defense has won two ball games by itself. Also, Offensive Coordinator Bryan Ellis = THE MAN. If WKU wins the coaching battle, the Monarchs should be dethroned.
Final Prediction
I’ve gone from being cautiously (and extremely) optimistic about this WKU team to really believing this team can do some damage this year. WKU is 2–0 in conference and faces what looks to be a tough but beatable test on the road. Old Dominion is absolutely capable of beating anyone, mainly because of their defense and lengthy possession of the football offensively. Nothing drives a defensive coordinator more bonkers than a running quarterback.
Both of these offenses are below average, so count that as an overall wash. Both defenses are excellent, boasting different strengths and focuses. Which style of defense prevails? Does the semi-aggressive, strip the ball/tip the ball at all costs team defense of ODU work out? Or does Clayton White’s stop-the-run, control the trenches, and blow up the line of scrimmage aggressive type of defense get it done?
I see a few advantages for WKU that ODU just doesn’t have, or at least has not manifested so far. One is awesome special teams, especially the actual punter and kicker. That doesn’t hurt. Second is an advantage on the lines, specifically offensively in the favor of WKU, but I believe WKU’s defensive line is a little better, as well. The lines usually decide a majority of the game’s flow.
Third is what I think makes the difference in the game: Explosive players. ODU clearly has production as a team. But who do they go to when the times get tough? No one offensively stands out. The kicker has been good, going 5-of-6 on the year. Defensively, maybe two defensive linemen stand out in defensive end Keion White and tackle Juwon Ross. Kaleb Ford-Dement has seven pass break-ups, which is impressive. However, WKU has some really good talent at every level on defense, and offensively, everywhere but quarterback has some explosive capability. Compared to ODU, each position group certainly has the same or more big play ability.
ODU’s impact players are young, so they may grow into superstars in a couple of years, but for now, I like WKU’s experience, depth, and explosiveness, especially defensively. I’m trying to find ways ODU wins, and I see them having a much tougher go of it than WKU. I believe WKU makes some big plays, wears ODU down, and prevents ODU from doing much offensively. I’ve got WKU 27-ODU 16.