WKU Football: Keys to Victory Against Southern Miss

After a week off after the incredible 45–19 victory against Arkansas in Fayetteville, Western Kentucky is back into conference play.

After a week off after the incredible 45–19 victory against Arkansas in Fayetteville, Western Kentucky is back into conference play.

Now bowl eligible, WKU and 52 other teams vie to improve their resume. Nearly 40 other teams are vying for spots in bowl games, so building the resume is extremely important for teams like Western Kentucky (6–4, 4–2 C-USA) and Southern Miss (7–3, 5–1 C-USA).

Both teams are technically alive for a division title, as well. Southern Miss is tied for first in the West Division with La Tech. UAB is one game behind them, hoping to capitalize. Western Kentucky’s path is much more unlikely. By losing to Marshall and FAU in consecutive weeks a few weeks ago, they must win two and have both of those two lose their last two games.

Both Southern Miss and Western Kentucky have plenty to play for, and although neither is guaranteed a championship appearance without help, losing a game likely ends it for both.

Let’s see what the Keys to Victory are…How does WKU beat Southern Miss in Hattiesburg?

Keys to Victory

Play Clean Football

This means a variety of things, but they’re all important. WKU generally avoids penalties, while USM commits enough to be a liability every once in a while. Also, the Golden Eagles are an extremely good Conference USA football team. In order for WKU to win, WKU needs to be sharp looking. If the Tops are sluggish, forget it. It is extremely unlikely a team competing for a realistic shot a championship is going to come out and lay an egg at home. The Tops better be sharp like aged cheddar or they’ll get the Cheez Whiz knocked out of them.

In addition to being disciplined with their emotions and playing hard, the Tops need to be pretty good in all phases. Watch for someone to mess up. I say this all the time, but football is so much more about how not to screw up than how to make an individual play. With 22 moving parts on each play, one or two screw-ups can change the complete outlook. Late in the year, the team that cleans up the most generally is going to give itself the best chance to win.

WKU Offensive Line vs. USM Defensive Pressure

Notice I did not say the defensive line only. Why? USM has 34 sacks, nearly twice as many as WKU. However, eight players have at least two sacks. Get this: Only two of the eight are defensive linemen. Without even watching film, that tells me the defensive coordinator for Southern Miss dials up all types of pressure from everywhere. For a DB to nearly lead the team in sacks and to have less than half of your pressure coming from your front three or four, that means you are extremely creative with your scheme at the line of scrimmage. What it also means is they take huge risks, sending linebackers and defensive backs constantly into the backfield.

If WKU holds Southern Miss to three sacks or less, that is an absolute win for the Tops. This is a tough assignment, but a veteran offensive line can be a good match-up for a tricky defensive blitz scheme. If WKU’s offensive line dominates the defense of the Golden Eagles, that is a huge factor in the favor of the Tops. Western should have opportunity to throw into the holes where the pressure came from. Likewise, if they get utterly blasted backwards all game, how can a marginal WKU offense withstand losing the line of scrimmage?

Make the People of Abraham Uncomfortable

When the Israelites got uncomfortable in the desert, they began complaining and were distracted from their goal. Quarterback Jack Abraham is really good. He can run and throw, and WKU is yet to face such a good quarterback all year. Western has really lucked out not facing a single gunslinger. Welcome to the biggest defensive challenge of the year, Tops. Now, how do you get to a great general? Kill his troops. Take advantage of the weakest spots in the offensive line. Be physical with their (really good but banged up) receivers. Keep the running backs from running loose. Constrict Abraham’s abilities to help out his teammates and then he must do it all on his own.

If the Tops can bottle up all of the other position players for Southern Miss and force Jack Abraham to win the game for Southern Miss, it gives Western a great chance to pull the slight upset.

Get a Third Receiver Involved

Lucky Jackson is now on pace to get 1,000 yards in the regular season. Jahcour Pearson is always in the mix, causing problems with his quickness. They are 3/5 of the Topper air attack. Wonderful. No one else averages more than 30 yards a game, though. Now, to beat Southern Miss, a team that gives up a good amount of yards through the air, I believe the Tops need a third receiver to show up to help keep up with USM’s offensive production. This could be someone else scoring a touchdown, a monster day from say a tight end or Jacquez Sloan, or Gaej Walker stepping up and making several big plays in the receiving game. Whoever it is, the Tops need someone to show up and be a big presence through the air. Southern Miss bottles up the run and blitzes like crazy, so Western’s receivers must show up in a big way.

Keep Kevin Perkins and De’Michael Harris Under Check

These two are a pretty good 1A-1B punch at running back. Both average right at 50 yards and both have played in at least nine games. Neither is a true bell cow, but both are consistently producing in each game. Of 19 combined appearances, only five of those resulted in either one producing less than 30 yards rushing. In other words, they both show up and contribute. I issue this challenge to the WKU defense as a Key to Victory: Stop these two. Without them, 100 yards rushing and over 30 yards receiving (mostly from Harris), over 1/3 of the Golden Eagle offense is absent.

Prediction

This is a tough match-up for WKU in some ways, but a decent one in others. USM’s defense is overwhelming to opposing offensive lines. They get after the quarterback and take huge risks. Ty Storey is a dual threat game manager, so a guy like that can go four ways with significant pressure: He can execute the dink and dunk game, he can start to throw longer passes, he can scramble and make some big plays with his feet, or he can completely fold under the immense pressure. USM has several really good players on offense and averages way into the 400s in yards per game, including a quarterback accounting for over 300 yards per game by himself. Can WKU flat out keep pace with them?

WKU has struggled against the deep pass at times, and USM gets lots of chunk plays. Quez Watkins has the third most catches on the team but leads in yardage (with one less game played) by 300 yards. He averages over 20 yards per catch. That’s scary good. In addition to the skill players offensively, the offensive line gives up less than a sack and a half per game. There is not much weakness there. Transition to the defense for weaknesses, and you look at 34 sacks on the year. You look at the second leading sack artist being a defensive back with three interceptions in D.Q. Thomas. You look at about 100 yards per game given up on the ground. Where is the hole? Maybe you would say 350 yards given up per game. Great. The problem is they give up less than 1/3 of their third down conversions on defense.

All of these represent match-up issues for the Tops. How do they get Gaej Walker and the rest of the running game going? How does the line handle the pressure? Can the D-Line get any pressure? They give up a good amount of pass yards, but the passing game can be inconsistent. How can WKU stay on the field on third down? All of these issues have to be resolved before WKU could expect to win.

WKU owns an edge in punting, so perhaps John Haggerty could be the star of the game for the Tops. Other special teams areas are even or better for Southern Miss. WKU also has DeAngelo Malone, a true game wrecker, which Southern Miss does not necessarily have on the defensive line.

When picking a winner, I’m looking at match-ups and probability of outcomes. For me, I see a lot of issues for WKU to overcome. I like WKU’s momentum, but I also like USM’s. They are going to be laser focused on their task at hand. So will the Tops, but I see too much going the way of Southern Miss, and simply playing at home may give them the edge they need to beat the Tops Saturday.

This may not be a popular pick in Bowling Green, but I’ve got Southern Miss 37-WKU 27. I think WKU ultimately struggles stopping the Golden Eagles.