WKU Football: Keys to Victory Against UAB
Well, Western Kentucky should be well-rested Saturday. The Tops had a bye week after getting handled fairly easily by Louisville on…
Well, Western Kentucky should be well-rested Saturday. The Tops had a bye week after getting handled fairly easily by Louisville on September 14 in Nissan Stadium.
WKU (1–2, 1–0 C-USA) is still a mystery, but certainly, the picture will come into focus a little more after this game against UAB (3–0, 0–0 C-USA).
UAB comes in looking awful good, but obviously part of that has to be attributed to schedule. Beating Alabama State by five points certainly didn’t make them look like the defending Conference USA champions. Beating a now 0–4 Akron by 11 doesn’t scream impressive, but when considering UAB was up 31–6, it certainly paints things in a different light. Then UAB took on good ole South Al in the Mouth (I swear that’s what their band says on free throws at basketball games) and slaughtered them 35–3.
Although the Blazers’ early record is impressive, UAB’s opponents’ records combine for a 3–9 record, including an FCS team.
So how do we sift through these two early season mysteries to figure out who may come out on top? More importantly for Topper fans, how does WKU beat UAB?
WKU’s Keys to Victory
Win the Trenches
More than any other game, this is pivotal. I know I’ve said the lines are so important this season, and I’m not backing away from it now. Both teams have good lines on both sides of the ball, statistically speaking. Tyson Helton said as much in his weekly press conference. UAB has 13 sacks and has given up a grand total of one the entire season through three games. WKU has seven sacks (with a ton of tackles for loss and a defensive end that produces like a linebacker) and has only given up two sacks on the year, including holding Louisville to one sack, a team with a pretty good defensive front.
This is a game that seems pretty even according to Vegas and according to how each of these teams has looked so far. In an area, both teams seem to be good at, who is going to win this battle? I’m not looking anywhere but the battle on the line for the true indication of who might win this game. I’ll be shocked if that battle doesn’t determine the game. Freak things always happen, but if one side truly dominates another, it’s very rare for the opposition to overcome such a crucial part of the football game. Tops need to make this game ugly. Win the dirt.
Contain UAB’s Top Three Wide Receivers
Austin Watkins, Kendall Parham, and Myron Mitchell are all upperclassmen wide receivers that average at least 75 (rounded) all-purpose yards per game, have at least two touchdowns, and have at least one play of 40 yards or more. Watkins and Parham are more the immediate issues on offense, but Mitchell still averages 52 receiving yards. Mitchell is the returner averaging 34 yards per return, including a 98 yarder for a score. Combined, they average 205 yards receiving per game, have eight total touchdowns, and with Mitchell’s kick and punt returns, bring almost 300 all-purpose yards to the table.
Anybody that has paid remote attention to WKU knows the Topper secondary has struggled this season, especially when dealing with deep throws. WKU must hold these guys under 300 all-purpose yards or it will be difficult to see WKU winning. Just keep them at bay and force someone else to beat you and WKU has a great chance here. The problem is with a three headed monster and depth issues in the secondary, how do you cover all three at once?
Contain the Dual Threat Quarterback
WKU should be pretty adept at covering mobile QB’s at this point. They’ve faced one in all or part of each of their games so far. This will not change. Tyler Johnston III averages over four yards per carry and gets nearly 40 yards net on the ground. That’s a legitimate threat. He also throws for nearly 250 yards per game to skilled receivers (see above). He also throws the deep ball well, so if I’m Clayton White, how do I contain so many threats? No one is monstrously elite, but everyone seems to be pretty good. Anyone could bust loose for a big game on this offense. If I’m Clayton White, maybe I’m focusing on taking away the quarterbacks first couple of preferences and hoping he screws up due to a lack of discomfort.
Dominate the Run Defensively; Produce Something Offensively
This is a chance for WKU to shut down the run. Yes, UAB has a good running quarterback, but other than that, the main rusher averages 3.4 yards per carry. Sure, the running back is supposed to be an elite running back, but other than the last game against South Al, he has not been terribly impressive against three bad teams. The entire team averages 3.7 yards per rush. WKU’s offense, however, only averages 3.5. WKU’s defense has a real opportunity to constrict UAB on the ground and force UAB’s good receivers to truly be great on Saturday. Stop the run.
Defensively, UAB’s goal should be the same, but Gaej Walker is certainly an X Factor for the Toppers. Averaging nearly 100 yards per game, Walker is the beginning and the end of the Topper run game. If WKU could get over 100 total rushing yards, be it by Walker alone or by someone else pitching in, this spells good news for the Tops. With a new quarterback (Steven Duncan is officially out for the season), the Tops absolutely have to produce on the ground.
Win Third Down
WKU seems to have a slight statistical advantage offensively, but UAB holds the edge defensively. With only three games under the belt, we can only tell a few things: Both teams do a good job getting off of the field, and both do a decent job staying on it offensively. UAB’s defense only allows 21 percent conversions on third down, while WKU holds its opponents to 28 percent. WKU’s offense converts 40 percent of the time, while UAB’s gets it done 35 percent. With both teams generally winning time of possession and running the football and using play-action(albeit in different ways), third down will be a massive factor.
With UAB’s spread/RPO type of attack, third down could be frustrating for the Tops if they can’t find a way to contain short yardage runs and throws. Watch out for the big plays, though, because Johnston is always capable of throwing it up. With a good offensive line and an offense designed to generally gain something on every play, UAB should hope to be in third and short yardage situations. If WKU could contain UAB’s deep threats and force UAB to dink and dunk its way down the field, WKU could blitz and allow Juwuan Jones and DeAngelo Malone to pin their ears back and attack the quarterback on obvious passing downs.
What Happens and Why?
It breaks my heart that I won’t be able to see this game. I’m actually missing two home games this year due to weddings (UAB and Charlotte). I think this game is going to be a heck of a game, without a doubt. This is a game for early season bragging rights, and beating two contenders (UAB and FIU) in the early going could quickly put WKU among the favorites to win Conference USA. A loss for either team puts them in desperation mode the rest of the year.
Vegas has UAB as a slight favorite, despite them being on the road. That feels about right. In the preseason, most of the Towel Rack staff (if they dared pick each game) picked the UAB game as a loss, including me. Ross Shircliffe did pick the Tops to upset the defending conference champs.
Personally, I’m going back and forth, but it comes down to depth and weaknesses for me. WKU does not have consistency in the passing game, running game (with the exception of Walker), and the back end of the defense. UAB is good to really good everywhere. When picking the weakest positions so far this year, maybe you go running back (although he’s preseason Doak Walker and two time All C-USA), tight end, and maybe kicker? Honestly, throw out the running back, because the running game is good enough and has a ton of potential to be the best in Conference USA. That leaves two of the most inconsequential positions as your weakness.
I think any team that can hold its own with WKU’s lines is a bad matchup for the Tops. The good thing is WKU should always be around because it won’t get obliterated in the trenches, so don’t write this or any game off as a definite loss, either. UAB is a really impressive team, and those 30+ seniors they lost from the 2018 squad clearly had capable backups. This comes down to WKU making it ugly, producing just enough offensively, and minimizing explosive plays by UAB.
With WKU starting a new quarterback, they’re even more of a mystery offensively and are unlikely to be as productive as they were with Steven Duncan. Could they possibly take better care of the ball, though? That could be a huge factor for the Tops to even things up. WKU needs this to be a grind it out, under 20 points scoring, try to find a first down, ugly type of game to win. I just don’t think WKU can stop UAB’s receivers. They may be able to stifle the run, but UAB is too explosive. If this is a fun game to watch because of all of the big plays, that spells danger for the Tops. That’s UAB’s game to win. If it’s ugly, like your chances, Topper fans.
I’ve got UAB winning 27–19, but this is super tentative. I see tons of options for WKU to win, and I see plenty of reasons to doubt UAB is as good as they were last year. I just see UAB being too solid everywhere and WKU not being quite consistent enough. Let’s say it’s a really good chance for the Tops to pull off a slight upset. This game will go a long way in establishing a more official pecking order in Conference USA.