WKU Football: Keys to Victory at FIU
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I’m sure there’s been a lot of that going on in both L.T. Smith and Riccardo Silva Stadiums.
Western Kentucky loses to Central Arkansas in what very few would argue was a disastrous start to 2019. That being said, it’s one game and it’s time to flush it down the commode and move on. FIU did the same thing with Tulane. It’s not that FIU was expected to win. Tulane is supposed to be a very good AAC team, but FIU got dominated in every phase of the game.
Both teams now have to move on and try to get on the winning side of things. Conference USA season begins, whether they are ready or not. If either team is not ready, it could be out of the race before it even begins for everyone else.
WKU heads to Miami for a battle with an FIU team that was a preseason dark horse to win the East. WKU was expected to exist near the bottom of C-USA but improve slightly on its 2018 campaign. After their first week performances, who knows where these programs will finish this season?
That being said, what does WKU need to beat FIU?
Keys to Victory
Dominate Both Run Games
FIU got absolutely gashed for 350 rushing yards against Tulane. Gaej Walker moved from nickel to running back and exploded for 152 yards, only losing yardage on one of 19 carries.
FIU only ran for 59 yards against Tulane, but again, Tulane just utterly dominated.
WKU’s defense held what is supposed to be a very good UCA running game to 20 yards. This was an impressive showing, mainly due to WKU’s incredible defensive line performance.
This is clearly the most obvious area to watch. If WKU goes for 300 yards rushing and holds FIU to 20 yards, surely that means FIU falls. If WKU can’t do anything or can’t stop FIU on the ground, that spells almost certain doom for the Tops.
WKU Offensive Line Needs to Emphatically Win vs FIU Defensive Line
This runs right along with the running game, but it also includes the passing game. When did Duncan run into issues floating passes and putting the ball up for grabs? When he was under pressure. FIU specializes in shutting down the passing game. Win the trenches and a rising tide lifts all boats. The offense will stay on the field longer, and Steven Duncan will be on his front foot instead of backpedaling while throwing into a very good secondary. And in theory, he will have a good running game to bolster what could be a difficult time through the air.
FIU seems to have a difficult time controlling the line of scrimmage, be it in the passing game (one sack) or running game (350 yards rushing allowed). WKU’s offensive line is supposed to be one of the best units on the team. On the road, it’s always massive to win the battle in between the tackles. Win that and even when things go wrong, you’re always giving yourself a great chance by simply beating the opponent into submission.
WKU’s Tight Ends and Running Backs Need at Least 100 Yards Receiving
Listen, FIU had a bad game, but let’s not overreact, either. FIU is supposed to be one of the better teams in the conference, and they’re coached by Butch Davis. He knows what he’s doing. WKU’s receivers weren’t great, with tight ends and running backs contributing a huge chunk of the 304 receiving yards.
FIU’s passing defense is awesome. How do you loosen up a really good defense? Tear up the middle. Joshua Simon, Fourtenbary, Moses (if healthy), and (maybe) Gaej Walker can all create issues for defenses by gaining unexpected, tough yardage in the passing game. If WKU stretches out the middle of the defense, that should open up the outside for big plays. It will also create running room. Nothing troubles and frustrates a defense more than giving up yards they feel like they should never have to worry about, especially after bottling up everyone else.
Win Time of Possession
Western’s run game helped the Tops to hold the ball against UCA for over 35 minutes. FIU only had the ball against Tulane for 26 minutes. It would be great to come close to duplicating that in this game.
Time of possession is an indication of a trend, but it is not an end all be all. However, if the Tops dominate on the ground, and/or FIU gets shut down on the ground, TOP should go in favor of the Tops. Winning time of possession is always a good thing, and I would think it’s on Butch Davis’ mind directly or indirectly. He is going to want to have the ball on offense as much as he can. As the underdog, take every bit of advantage you can take, and if that means milking the clock, go ahead and do it if it means it gives you a better chance.
Win Special Teams
Frankly, it feels like WKU needs to dominate in several areas to beat FIU. Special Teams is another opportunity for the Tops to make up some ground. John Haggerty looked like Brett Kern out there, bombing punts with ease. He really has an awesome leg and has the size to maintain that type of power. It was no fluke. Corey Munson, despite missing his lone field goal attempt, looked great on kickoff and extra points. He just pulled the field goal attempt. We should forgive him, I think.
FIU averaged 39.7 yards per punt last game. WKU averaged 55. If that trend proves to be a remote level of expectation for either going forward, FIU will struggle with field position and WKU should dominate in this area. Western gave up only 14 yards per return against UCA, while recording two touchbacks; FIU gave up 29 yards on its lone return, while recording two touchbacks.
Again, signs point to WKU having the advantage in this area, and given the preseason predictions and expectations, WKU would seem to need to win in the areas that they happen to have an advantage.
Overall Thoughts
WKU really needs to play a quality game to beat FIU. It is not completely off of the table, but FIU absolutely smoked WKU at home on Homecoming last season, 38–17. FIU may have looked bad in its first game, but so did WKU. In my opinion, throw out the first couple of games and walk in with what would have been preseason expectations.
In that case, WKU should be a near ten-point underdog (-7.5 currently) and will need to show up and get it done on the road. In my opinion, WKU needs to dominate two of the three phases of the game to win, and the third phase needs to be competitive. In other words, from what I said in the article, win on the ground, be competitive through the air, and win special teams. It could come in any two of the three in theory (or all three, if you please), but that is the most likely scenario. If the Tops throw away opportunities to separate themselves, it is difficult to see them pulling this slight upset.
Any conference game is up for grabs, and the Golden Panthers showed some serious weakness in its run defense. The Toppers showed obvious issues in the back end of its defense. FIU struggled last season against the run, surrendering 192 yards per game. However, only once last year did FIU surrender more than 350 yards rushing in one game. Perhaps it is a suggestion of a disturbing trend, but ultimately, Butch Davis’ defenses are about stopping the pass. Last game, they only gave up 195 yards through the air. That’s awesome. WKU’s defense, as long as I have ever known anything about the defensive philosophy, is to stop the run. Both teams accomplished their mains goals, but they completely discarded the other half of the equation, to their demise. Look for both to make lineup adjustments in their areas of weakness.
Which defensive philosophy will prevail in this one?
Prediction
Ultimately, my heart is telling me WKU, and the stats from the last games kind of point that way, too. However, I struggle to see WKU getting more than 200 yards on the ground, especially if Jakairi Moses (who limped out of the game against UCA) is banged up at all. I see WKU needing a ton of rushing yardage. I will dance for joy if Walker goes off for 200+ yards. With FIU’s pass defense being really good and WKU’s being a little shaky, I see issues coming from the WKU passing game, ultimately resulting in a loss.
WKU falls at FIU, 34–28.
Tops play at FIU at 6 P.M. Central on Saturday. The game will play on ESPN+.