WKU Football: Keys to Victory at FIU

We’re back, baby! Well, let’s not get too hasty, but the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers did snap a four game losing streak in convincing…

We’re back, baby! Well, let’s not get too hasty, but the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers did snap a four game losing streak in convincing fashion, discarding Old Dominion 43–20 in Norfolk.

WKU (2–4, 1–1 C-USA) now draws the Florida International Golden Panthers. FIU (1–5, 0–2 C-USA) has had drama already, with Butch Davis retiring and announcing he will be stepping down at the end of the season after school officials posted his job before he had announced his plans. FIU has a win against an FCS team and five losses to FBS opponents. Then again, last week, WKU and FIU were in the exact same boat. WKU was 1–4 with a loss in the conference and basically on the ropes if they didn’t come together and win immediately. The Tops did come together, at least for a week, and FIU the past two weeks was blown out by FAU and handled very easily by Charlotte.

So two teams that surely had higher goals than their current circumstance face each other in Miami this week. Whichever team loses is on the extreme back foot in terms of salvaging the season and going to a bowl game. With two losses to two of the best teams in the East, FIU is virtually eliminated. WKU is first of all capable, but also is still completely in control of its destiny. If WKU wins the rest of its games, they represent the C-USA East Division and could possibly host.

So these are two programs in different spots in terms of long term trajectory, but also comparatively, they are both teams with losing records that would be devastated with a loss.

That being said, let’s get into the Keys to Victory. What does WKU need to do get it done against FIU?

Keys to Victory

Easily get 600 Yards of Offense

That seems like a ridiculous number. FIU is one of the worst defenses in the nation in multiple ways. WKU’s defense is nothing to beam about, giving up 474 yards per game themselves. But FIU is even worse, giving up 480 yards per game. WKU’s offense racks up over 500 yards per game. Frankly, WKU probably should get at least 600 yards of offense and score 45 or more. If they do, can FIU come even close to that? It’s tough to see, but getting this kind of production virtually guarantees a win. If WKU is more pedestrian, FIU could hang around. If WKU easily passes this, it’s all the more likely that this is a blowout.

Sterns & Tinsley vs. Singleton & Chambers

Really switch out Tinsley with whoever the second leading receiver is for the Tops on Saturday. WKU has significant depth, with four guys who have played every game and average 47 or more per game. FIU has two guys (Singleton and Chambers) that get the vast majority of their receiving yards, and then no one else averages more than 29 yards per game. To further emphasize the lack of depth, no one else on FIU’s team through half of its season has topped 69 yards in one game, and that was on one play by the backup running back (E.J. Wilson). One other person had 68 yards on three catches (Kris Mitchell). I would focus on constricting the top two and force the rest of the recievers to produce big numbers. The main thing here is don’t let these two guys go wild. If they don’t outstrip Jerreth Sterns and receiver number two in production, again, you have to feel pretty good about your chances because of the WKU depth.

Win the Discipline Battle

Both teams have had discipline issues at some point this season. WKU is seemingly on the right track, but early in the season, the Toppers struggled mightily in this area. It seemed like every game, costly penalties were the theme. Western has done much better of late, but still, penalties directly cost the Tops a victory most recently against UTSA two weeks ago. But the Tops are trending in the right direction despite averaging 55 yards in penalties per game. FIU has had serious penalty issues, never dipping below five called penalties and 45 yards in any game this season. They average nearly 75 yards per game. While WKU is a troubling 65th in the nation in penalties, FIU is 120th. Clearly, discipline should be an area WKU should win.

Also, discipline encompasses other areas besides just penalties. This would be concentration, self-control, and soundness fundamentally. Also, within penalties and the plays that indicate discipline or lack thereof, what kind of issues arise? Are they hustle plays or just people being stupid? Also, what about the timing? Does either team get a stupid personal foul on a 3rd-and-23 play? Or defensive holding on a draw play on 3rd-and-long? These are just examples, but I’m watching to see if WKU controls itself against a team that obviously can’t control itself.

More Big Plays Than FIU

FIU doesn’t do much in terms of huge chunk plays in the running game, but they do have a horse in 6'2" 215 D’vonte Price, who averages just under 100 yards per game between his rushing and receiving totals. However, the passing game is where FIU can seriously do some damage. Including Price’s 68 yard scamper against Long Island, seven different players on the FIU roster have gains of at least 34 yards. This is truly amazing here: Despite WKU’s significant amount of yardage surrendered defensively, WKU’s defense is still yet to give up a play longer than 46 yards all season. Offensively, WKU has zero plays in the running game longer than 21 yards. In the passing game, of course, seven players have found completions of 33 or more.

The point: FIU can clearly make explosive plays in the passing game just as often as WKU. So how does WKU combat that? Either constrict them defensively and keep down the big play, or make tons of plays offensively. Honestly, you would love to see the defense take another step forward and keep FIU from spraying the ball all over the field.

Deal With the Morgue

I know this is a bit extreme, but honestly, FIU’s stadium and fan presence is an absolute distraction. I always said it was like trying to play football in a morgue. If you haven’t been there, watch some film of any FIU game ever. For some reason, their attendance on their stats sheet says they literally had zero fans. That’s a little harsh, but in all seriousness, maybe they got in trouble for fudging numbers all these years and they’re making up for it. I remember a WKU game where there truly could not have been 2,000 people there, and WKU fans were nearly 1,000 because of all the players’ families. FIU’s attendance could not have been more than WKU’s, but they showed an official attendance of well over 10,000.

Anyway, FIU’s Stadium is notoriously quiet, it’s all metal, and the visitor locker room is strange and feels like a high school. Very few elements of the stadium feel like anything but high school. The size of the stadium is normal, and there is a press box tens of feet above the field. That’s about it. The visitors’ coach’s box literally used to be a tent. Is it anymore? I honestly don’t know, because no one cares about FIU enough to talk about it. But I’m pretty sure it’s probably still a tent. I’ve heard trusted members of the media talk about FIU being a clusterf*** to try to deal with. I know it seems silly that the players (and staff) would get that distracted, but FIU’s stadium is an absolute joke. I kid you not that coaches were distracted by their papers and preparation blowing in the Miami wind because FIU hadn’t had the forethought to house the visiting coaches. I would hesitate to say these things, but who is going to take offense? The ghosts of FIU? Certainly no one living. Anyone who’s been there knows it’s true. I’ll risk it.

Prediction

I think this game is a little more dangerous than Old Dominion. That may seem ridiculous, but Old Dominion was almost always going to lose to WKU because they couldn’t keep up offensively. FIU can score if they put their affairs in order. They average over 18 yards per catch. For perspective, WKU, the number one passing team in the nation, average a shade over 12 per catch. The Golden Panthers pass for over 300 yards per game, and they have a running back capable of 100 by himself. Now, he doesn’t have much in the way of help, but still, FIU can move the ball multiple ways. However, the Golden Panthers get into the red zone and find ways to mess it up. Eight times of 22 attempts, FIU has come away with absolutely zero points. They also have kicked a field goal three times. So of a possible 156 points in the red zone, FIU has only scored 85. That’s a huge chunk of missing offense.

Nonetheless, that is just execution away from being much more dangerous. In addition to being inopportunistic offensively, FIU’s defense is slightly worse yardage wise and points wise than the Toppers. The Hilltopper defense has notably struggled, so a defense that’s worse than their own should equate to a feast for Bailey Zappe and co. However, there is somewhat of a ceiling to yardage in a 60 minute game. The all-time NCAA record for single game yardage is just over 1,000. So even though FIU gives up tons and WKU averages more than FIU gives up, what is the impact statistically this combination will have? I think it could be minimized, simply because there are only so many opportunities in a 60 minute game. WKU’s all-time total yards in a single game record (738 vs. Marshall in 2014) could be under threat in a game like this.

In terms of who will win and how, I see Bailey Zappe and company (including the defense) finally coming into their own. I have asked this question all year: Who in Conference USA can score 40 or 50 when they have to? Not many, so the game plan should be designed to let the offense score a ton and the defense just needs to get a few stops and/or hold the other team to several field goal attempts.

If Zappe and the offense are clicking at a high level, FIU can forget it. But if WKU isn’t humming at maximum, FIU is capable enough offensively to hang around and make a game of it. I believe FIU could get to 30. But I also believe WKU should get to 50 or 60. As blasé as that may sound, with a defense like FIU’s, WKU’s offense should really get to that threshhold.

I’ve got WKU clicking on all cylinders and the defense being good enough to create separation. I’ve got WKU 57-FIU 32.