WKU Football: Keys to Victory at Hawaii

What Western Needs to Tear the Leis Off of the Rainbow Warriors

Western Kentucky football is off and, let’s say, strolling. They’re not quite rolling, because they didn’t make an emphatic FBS statement over an FCS team in Austin Peay. However, they did take care of business and set themselves up feeling pretty good about their potential for 2022, beating a really game Austin Peay Governors team 38-27 in the college football opener for Week 0.

There are definitely concerns. Under head coach Tyson Helton, WKU’s special teams unit has usually been quite good. It was not last week, with multiple return issues, inconsistent punting, and multiple kickoffs out of bounds from an elite kickoff specialist. Offensively, what does WKU do about its tight ends? Can the receiver position develop some depth? Are the running backs going to be good enough to be a threat?

Defensively, WKU’s defensive line seems solid, and the linebackers on paper are good. Heck, the defense (and special teams) forced three turnovers. Those are all good signs. How did Austin Peay score 27, then? WKU’s defense was inconsistent last week, and the Tops are, I’m sure, looking to rectify significant inconsistencies.

WKU travels to beautiful Hawaii. Having headed out Thursday morning, the squad has about 48 hours to adjust to a six-hour time change for an 11 p.m. CT kick.

That alone is concerning for the Tops.

Fortunately, Hawaii does seem to be a bit of a mess: They return only six starters from last season, had a ridiculous amount of drama last year, ultimately firing the head coach and bringing in former legendary quarterback Tommy Chang to right the ship. Add the fact that Hawaii played Vanderbilt at home and got blasted 63-10, and WKU will be the solid favorite.

Hawaii may seem like a disaster given their current season’s bio, but the Rainbow Warriors did get 188 yards in the first half against Vandy, also going for a respectable total yards gained mark at 358. Vanderbilt was only up 11 at halftime and absolutely poured gas on the fire in the third quarter, scoring 35 just in that frame alone. Hawaii was able to move the ball some against Vandy, and two receivers stood out in Jalen Walthall and Jonah Panoke, combining for over 160 yards. Hawaii also only allowed 197 yards through the air, so it begs the question of whether that was just Vandy realizing they could run at will or if Hawaii took away the pass. Looking at stats from a 63-10 game is virtually pointless in some areas, but I feel like those numbers are respectable enough that WKU should know that this team is at minimum capable offensively if nothing else. Perhaps they are quite good defensively against the pass for all we know.

Hawaii has tradition as a pretty good football program, but its latest trajectory has been downward. Will we see progression under Tommy Chang in game two, or will Hawaii continue to struggle?

For reference, Hawaii is considered a very similar caliber team to Austin Peay according to the newly updated Massey ratings, something I never really paid attention to until recently. The Massey ratings rank college football teams no matter the division.

That being said, Austin Peay was an FCS team on the road and Hawaii will have a massive time change advantage and sit at home with FBS talent and money around the program. Sure, the Warriors might be a mess, but they’re fully capable of winning against several teams on their schedule if they pull it together.

So what are WKU’s Keys to Victory heading out to Hawaii?

The Keys to Victory

Deal With the Massive Distraction Disadvantage

How many distractions accompany this trip? From a practical perspective, WKU left Thursday morning (probably not having any real practice in the morning), travel six hours (possibly more due to fuel), and have to adjust to a six hour time change and play a game at 11 p.m. CT. Western’s support staff will probably be completely lost, having to deal with flying the equipment on the plane, there will be weight concerns on the plane, the “What if we forget something?” dilemma, and there will likely be some kind of tension with the unknown in the staff. From experience, longer trips create logistical stress for everybody.

Then you’re taking the first plane flight for some of the players and staff and you’re going straight over the ocean. You’re also going to a lifetime freaking destination in Hawaii with tons of distractions related to the simple idea of the legend of “Hawaii”. Then you’re going to play in a makeshift stadium with only 9,000 seats. One can only picture the visitor’s locker room, given that fact. Then there’s the heat. Then there’s the opponent that is a complete and utter mystery. Pardon the unfiltered jargon here, but that’s a lot of bull crap to overcome just to play a football game, and 90% of that is a new experience for almost everyone on the WKU side of things.

Now, sometimes the extra stuff can be brushed off, but some of it can’t. How much does it affect the Tops? I’ve seen long trips where the star player has forgotten his favorite lucky charm. Somebody’s helmet didn’t get packed. Whatever. Trust me, that kind of stuff happens on long trips, and the question is whether hiccups and learning experiences become a distraction or a fun adventure that the Tops figure out together. That factor is the biggest of all to me.

I think we know WKU is the favorite on paper. Western is going to be favored by a solid two touchdowns or more unless the line comes down significantly. But two touchdowns can be lost if you’re thinking about wishing you could go to bed, aching muscles from a long flight and short turnaround, and wishing you could get drunk at a luau instead of just playing some football in Hawaii in a tough place to play against a team capable of winning at home.

Take Advantage of the Early Season Woes

Hawaii was absolutely dreadful at tackling the ball carrier against Vanderbilt. Some of that just happens playing SEC caliber athletes. However, there’s no way all of that was just being outclassed because of a higher level athlete. That’s a fundamental issue that Hawaii is going to have to work on throughout the entire season. WKU is making slight changes to its offense, defense, and special teams. Sure, there are some different faces in terms of staff and players, but it’s the same system. Hawaii is completely changing everything and they are now on game two of a new era. This is a huge advantage for WKU. Even if Tommy Chang’s strategy was to change nothing in his first year and just try to get his squad better individually, there’s going to be a huge learning curve for Hawaii because they return only six starters and lost about half of their roster from last season.

They are in a deep hole, and they are almost exponentially going to be better several games from now if Tommy Chang and staff know what they are doing. If they don’t, maybe Hawaii will be a disaster and stay a disaster all year. I would be shocked, though if WKU fans see this game and then Hawaii is three levels of football better come November. Take advantage of the issues. Let’s get the running game going. Let’s find some more receivers. Maybe the tight ends get involved this game. Maybe the defense shores up the back end. Austin Reed shows us the real Austin Reed. These are all positive things that could come from this experience. Or they could completely squander it and go in against Indiana knowing they are unlikely to pull it together by then.

Utterly Obliterate the Line of Scrimmage

Hawaii had absolutely zero tackles for loss against Vanderbilt. Part of that is Vanderbilt running the ball and being much less likely to be in the backfield. But another part of that is Hawaii’s defensive line being soft as rotten Hawaiian banana peels last game. Will they be that bad? Probably not. They will improve. The offensive line wasn’t a disaster, only giving up three sacks and seven tackles for loss, a respectable number against a better opponent. However, with WKU’s production against Austin Peay and the Topper offensive line giving up zero sacks and letting Austin Reed take only a few hits, this should be a prime opportunity to establish dominance up front on both sides of the ball.

Control the Receivers

If WKU cannot dominate the line of scrimmage, watch out, because Hawaii traditionally has pretty solid wide receivers, as well as the fact the Rainbow Warriors showed an ability against an SEC opponent with several guys last game producing nice looking numbers in the passing game already. WKU is also still relatively unknown at some of the positions in the secondary, and the Tops definitely still need some production in the passing game from linebackers, as well. This is the first chance for WKU to show its capability against a comparable receiver group as a whole. How good can the Tops be? Can they be elite and still pick off a few passes a game and minimize the big plays? Or are they still a work in progress and a liability for the rest of the defense?

Dominate Special Teams

Again, like Austin Peay, Hawaii is likely a less talented team than WKU in most areas. That should show in the kicking game. With departures last year, it has left the Warriors with a shorter stock of specialists, as well. Hawaii has a decent punter/kicker in Matthew Shipley, who averaged 36 yards per punt this last game but over 41 last season. He also nailed a 40 yard field goal last game, as well.

Regardless of some quality at each of the specialist positions for Hawaii, WKU should have the depth to dominate on special teams. With how bad it was last game, I would be shocked if they don’t go over it every day this week with some extra special teams periods. It’s difficult to see WKU fixing some of the issues from last week and not winning this week, frankly. But if the problems persist, the Tops are asking for trouble.

Get the Running Game Going and Don’t Look Back

We now know Austin Reed is capable of nearly 300 yards. We don’t know his ceiling yet. And he certainly wasn’t elite Saturday against Austin Peay. He has room for improvement. But he’s now a relatively known quantity and we know WKU can win with him as the head of the snake, even if he’s not his absolute best. Well, with the QB being solid, the most important remaining blaring question on the offensive side of the ball is the running game. Hawaii allowed over 400 yards rushing against Vanderbilt. Is that a fluke? Who knows? Are they that bad? Is Vandy that good running the football? Who knows? What we do know is how ineffective that Topper running game has been for the past few years. Since Gaej Walker’s one prolific year in 2019, WKU has not had a consistent running back presence. Really, Walker had the only good year for the WKU running backs since Anthony “Ace” Wales in the 2016 season.

It’s time for WKU to get it back together and be a dual threat offense for the first time in years. WKU has Jakairi Moses, who has been around. Davion Ervin-Poindexter is a Power Five talent with some experience. Kye Robichaux is a really hard worker with a big body and a unique skillset as a big man that can catch. There’s no time like the present to shake off the concerns and rush for 150-200 yards.

Prediction

As I break it down more and more, WKU Football is really close to being good once again. Last season, it was the defense that was a huge liability. This season, it’s a mixture. WKU needs to shore up some silly mistakes, and the defense looks solid with tons of potential and I absolutely love Tyson Summers as the Defensive Coordinator. His impact is already tangible. WKU’s offense is much less explosive and needs to develop some consistency at all positions, but is also still capable of putting 30 or 40.

It really feels like if this team could cut out the silly mistakes, they would be one of the better teams in the Group of Five and consequently Conference USA. We’ll see if they reach that top end potential.

Regardless, WKU gets another game they should win and more of a chance to tune up before a big game at Indiana next time out. Hopefully the Tops work out more kinks and come together to make a little bit of a statement.

I respect Hawaii, and I think WKU should, too. This is a team that could make massive strides week to week, and in some areas, they showed an ability to play, especially offensively, in their first week. Producing 350+ yards of offense against any SEC defense is difficult, and Hawaii did that, even if Vandy was relaxing somewhat after building up a 40+ point lead later in the game.

What am I really saying? This is not just a complete pushover game. Hawaii will come to play and WKU will need to be good in all three phases. That being said, I really do think WKU is jelling and will fix several of the issues that made Austin Peay a competitive game.

Austin Peay was good enough to expose some weaknesses in the Topper armor, but not good enough to hand the Tops a loss, a perfect first game wakeup call. Hawaii may be another one of those, although the Tops have to travel all the way to the other end of the country to find out.

That being said, I’ve got WKU pulling some more things together. I think they’ll be sharper. I still see some weaknesses that may persist, but I like Western to take a huge step forward, winning in a blowout. Hopefully we’ll see some depth in key areas and WKU can cruise to a victory.

I believe WKU gets it done in convincing fashion, Western Kentucky 48-Hawaii 13.