WKU Football: Keys to Victory at Indiana

What does WKU need to do to overcome its slight underdog status at Indiana?

Western Kentucky should be sitting pretty and feeling well heading into a clash with the Indiana Hoosiers. At 2-0 for the first time in seven years, the Tops should be full of confidence and full of the “feel goods”.

After a bye week, WKU’s already banged up secondary and interior defensive line should recover from their minor injuries and the Tops should be at relative full strength heading into Indiana.

WKU (2-0, 0-0 C-USA) has handled its fairly soft schedule with relative ease, handling Austin Peay at home by multiple possessions and heading to Hawaii and drubbing the Rainbow Warriors 49-17.

WKU had some question marks heading into the season, but Western has largely answered most of them to at least argue that the Tops are not in dire straights in any area. Ironically, some of the things WKU has struggled the most with were expected to be solid. Special Teams has traditionally been pretty good at WKU, but that unit has been very average thus far.

Indiana (2-0, 1-0 B1G) has also handled its business, but they have had more of a scrape with the jaws of defeat, winning by three against Illinois after needing a game-winning touchdown drive to surpass the Illini in the final two minutes. Then they followed it up by getting down 10-0 at halftime to Idaho before reeling off 35 of the game’s final 47 points in the second half. Indiana has definitely shown an ability to step up when they have needed it, but they have also dug themselves some serious holes against competent competition.

So what are the keys to a Topper victory Saturday?

Keys to Victory

Handle the Big Moments

Indiana has looked awful and then found ways to win late in both of their games so far. Regardless of how the game starts, WKU needs to finish well. End of half, First-and-goal, long field goals, lead change opportunities, defensive goal line stand, fourth down stops in “no man’s land”, and end of game would all be moments that can obviously directly affect the outcome of the game. Idaho and Illinois both looked the victor several times, but Indiana got it done. Beware, Tops: The game isn’t over until it’s triple zeroes on that clock.

Special Teams Need to be Pretty Good, at Minimum

This is gonna be a sticking point for me until the Tops show improvement. In every facet of special teams, the Tops have shown an inability to be consistent. Kicking, punting, kickoff, and punt return have been on a range of somewhat to incredibly frustrating each. You’re not beating a Big Ten school if your fiddlefart around on Special Teams. You need to be at least pretty decent. It might seem like hyperbole, but if WKU wins special teams, I think they should be a slight favorite to win on most occasions.

Make Indiana Score

There’s no question this Indiana team struggles to score. Illinois is not a good football team, even though they are a Power Five program. To have to battle to beat them at home is frustrating for IU’s hopes of making a bowl game. Against the Idaho Vandals, they didn’t score for an entire half, relying on the defense to keep them alive.

If you’re a Western fan, you want to hit them in the mouth and force them to be something they’re not. If they somehow come alive against you and drop in 45 themselves, shake their hand and congratulate them. But if the Tops get into the 30s, Western fans should feel pretty good about their chances, as they should have last year. What’s the difference this year? WKU can actually play defense at this point in the season. I believe Indiana will struggle mightily to score more than 30 against the Tops this season.

Handle Indiana’s Big Ten Size

Western’s greatest mismatch was across the board in terms of size against Indiana last year. IU’s receivers were wide open due to Western having to be so conservative, trying to avoid big plays. Frankly, I think the strategy this season against IU should be to be aggressive and screw it if they bust one or two. Western had real trouble on third and fourth down against the Hoosiers. If you’re aggressive, maybe you don’t see as many situations where Indiana is in a 3rd-and-1 situation. They either already got it or maybe you got in the backfield and sacked the quarterback or forced a turnover. I think that’s a fair trade. Kill a few more drives with some risks in exchange for a few big plays. Western was probably the better team last year, but didn’t force any big plays and had to nickel and dime its way to victory against a more talented team. Beat the size with your speed, and you give yourself an excellent chance.

Three Sacks or Less Given Up by the Offensive Line

That seems like a crazy low expectation, but Indiana’s defensive line is supposed to be really good, Western has gotten lucky to get out of some sack situations, and is frankly due to have a tougher game than a couple of TFLs given up and zero sacks. I don’t believe Western needs to be as good as they have been, but if Indiana just blows up the line of scrimmage and gets 4-6 sacks like they’re certainly capable, I view that as a disaster for a variety of reasons. I believe three sacks is a fairly normal number and not a disaster, although two or less would be ideal. Two or less really gives WKU a great chance to stand tall and deliver to open receivers. Regardless, the better the offensive line does handling Indiana’s quality looking front, obviously the better WKU stays in front of the chains.

Prediction

On the RedOUT podcast, I put in a bit of a bummer at the end saying I thought WKU would lose. That was right after Hawaii, and frankly, I didn’t have an extra game’s worth of info on Indiana. Did it change my opinion? We’ll see.

When I made that prediction, it was just feel. But what was that feeling? Oddly enough, it’s the most overlooked part of the game: Special teams. Western’s special teams has been hideous to watch in both games, and if they come out against IU and lay an egg in that area, if this game is remotely close, you can forget it. With WKU’s less potent offense, it’s unlikely WKU wins in any kind of blowout scenario. For me, field position in a more defensive battle is a huge key.

Let’s assume WKU is decent to good on special teams against Indiana. Now we start opening doors to some possibilities. Indiana does have some serious height at receiver, which WKU struggled against last season. However, I like the corners and safeties more than last season, although Western did lose some pieces. A.J. Brathwaite, Khalef Hailassee, and Kaleb Oliver and others provide a longer, athletic presentation to a defense. The pieces Western does have in the secondary are a little longer and quicker, and the “Power Five” talent is a little more developed, present, and prominent.

WKU’s offensive line is yet to give up a sack, so how do they fare against IU’s defensive front? Can IU get pressure without having to be bring extra guys? Or can WKU’s O-Line prove it is once again one of the elite units in all of college football?

In the trenches on the other side, WKU’s defensive line has had no issue getting pressure and creating problems in its first two games. Jaques Evans has been everywhere. Will Ignont is another disrupter in the front six of the 4-2-5/3-3-5 look for the Tops.

It’s interesting, because I think WKU matches up a little bit better with IU than they did last year. Defensively, there is a prayer that Western can get a stop. That didn’t exist at this time last year. That brings in the possibility of winning in the 20s. Offensively, WKU can run the ball, and the quarterback is a run threat and the WKU offensive coordinator is willing to call a few run plays for him. That didn’t exist against Indiana last season.

It’s an interesting matchup changeup from year to year, because WKU is a little more traditional in terms of running and passing with a presumably pretty good but unproven defense. Last season, WKU had a historically good passing offense, no running game, and a defense that struggled to force punts. On the flip side, IU is more of the same: A good defense with some playmakers up front and an offense that can be inconsistent but has ability in spurts.

So does this favor WKU or not? I think it does, but keep perspective, though. WKU forced four field goals against Indiana last season. Imagine if Indiana hadn’t choked on each of those drives. Also, to be fair, imagine if WKU had its defense this season and whether those long field goals would have been on the table.

Last year’s game was hard to analyze, because Indiana did some things to win, like making long field goals and being able to pass at will at times. But Western also did some things to screw it up and allow Indiana to ultimately win by two.

Ultimately, it comes down Indiana’s size against Western’s speed. It’s going to be IU’s defense against Western’s offense. It’s also definitely going to matter if WKU forces several turnovers, or if IU turns WKU over, of course.

So what happens?

I’m still torn. I see a path to victory for WKU by scoring points, protecting the ball, and forcing IU to score. I see a path to defeat, as well, though. IU could easily play up to its talent, play bully ball, and find a way to get enough offense put up to beat WKU. WKU is also due to come back to Earth in several areas, like sacks on both sides of the ball and turnovers forced. Stats don’t mean everything, but they sure suggest trends.

If only WKU’s offense from 2021 joined up with this defense, I think WKU would win. But I think this game will be played in the 20s. Can WKU’s defense really hold a Big Ten team under 25? It starts getting dicey asking the Western offense to score much more than that against a good defense.

But I see just enough of a concern to say I think Indiana wins. I believe Western plays well defensively but can’t muster touchdowns when they need to.

I’ve got Indiana 28-Western Kentucky 20.