WKU Football: Keys to Victory at Ohio State

What does WKU need to do to shatter OSU's entire season and shock the college football world and actually get the win at the Horseshoe?

Oh baby.

This is an absolute dream opponent for WKU fans. One of the truly legendary stadiums in all of the world to play, let alone college football, Ohio Stadium (“The Horseshoe”) has been home to some of college football’s greatest moments.

Without the googly eyed love emoji or thinking of this as slathering my favorite barbecue sauce on 48 hour ribs or drooling all over the Buckeyes any further, suffice it to say this is a dream trip for many Topper fans.

Unfortunately, I can’t make it due to my grandmother’s birthday party, something I would have to be a mega douchebag to skip. So I will be watching from the lake (and doing an OSU/WKU postgame show repping Towel Rack and the RedOut Podcast after the game).

Western Kentucky (2-0) has been solid to start the season. Challenged by USF early, the Tops rattled off a 34-7 run to end the game and win by 17. WKU decided to start well from the start against Houston Christian 31-0 a quarter and a half in, but two quarters of time followed with HCU outscoring WKU 22-7. Western would rattle off two straight decisive drives in the fourth quarter to provide a final margin of 52-22.

Suffice it to say, the Tops have shown their potential is pretty high, that the CUSA championship hype is valid, and that with a few tweaks, they could be exceptional. However, they have massively struggled to stop the run, entering Saturday ranked 130th nationally in that category.

They have an entire rotation of receivers riddled with injury, only some of which come back for Saturday. Their long snapper has been hurt as well, an underrated issue. Other nicks and cuts on the defense (potentially as many as three starters) have prevented WKU from being as good as possible.

On the one hand, Western Kentucky is scary in that their potential is incredibly high. If WKU could develop a rush defense overnight, they could shock the world Saturday. If they can’t stop Jim Tressel himself from coming out of the stands and getting a first down, it could be hideous. Big picture, if WKU can’t tilt towards averaging over 500 yards per game offensively, the Tops could struggle against certain opponents with more offensive firepower regardless of the defense.

No. 6 Ohio State (2-0, 1-0 B1G) is a preseason national title contender, but they have slipped three spots already in the polls despite having five preseason All-Americans and two easy victories. The greatest reason for that concern is because OSU has not had consistent quarterback play. In addition to quarterback issues, the Buckeyes really don’t have an elite ground game, although they do have four backs that have produced some on the ground and sprinkled in things through the air. On top of that, the preseason All-Americans have not been to the level they were last year. For example, Marvin Harrison, Jr., had 160 yards against Youngtown State, a performance worthy of an All-American. Against Indiana, the Hoosiers completely shut him down (18 receiving yards).

However, Ohio State is still considered the top favorite in all of America to ultimately make the College Football Playoff according to several statistically based power indexes. For a Group of Five school like WKU, looking at Ohio State as anything but a massive test is foolhardy at best. You’re borderline insane to think WKU has a real chance, as many will say.

While that may prove true, if WKU lives up to its potential offensively, Ohio State has struggled to score, they’ve struggled on third down on both sides of the ball, and they have not shown quarterback play definitively as good (and certainly not better) as Austin Reed. Indiana is not in a good spot in their program’s history, and Youngstown State is not the Youngstown State many Topper fans will remember from the days in the Gateway Conference in Division 1-AA when they were perennial national title contenders. YSU has been a .500 FCS program for years.

Insert your Dumb & Dumber memes here, but WKU has a real chance if midnight doesn’t strike the Topper pumpkin. Good thing midnight won’t strike during the game, eh?

We are shooting for victory here, so these keys for the Tops are going to be pretty intense. This isn’t a “stay in the game” type of article. This is painting the picture for WKU to actually win the game, folks. I’m sure they’re not going up there to play pattycake. They’re going up to Columbus to get a bag and bring home a W.

Keys to Victory

Score 30

With the defense struggling to stop the run, I don’t see a scenario that WKU wins a low scoring game. That seems unrealistic, and WKU has almost never held a Power 5, and really any good opponent, under 30 points. This must be WKU’s best offensive performance in recent memory, or you can forget it.

Now, WKU may have a “nice outing” or they might “impress some people” by scoring two or three touchdowns. But if you’re asking me what WKU needs to win, the Tops need at least 30, and I almost feel like that number is probably more like 35 or 40. With an OSU defense giving up 5 points per game, that’s tough to do. However, we’ve seen WKU dice up some good defenses in the past.

At Least Get in Their Way

Seriously, WKU’s defense has been suspect. The pass defense has been adequate, and the Tops have forced turnovers. However, the ground defense is about as rough as the untreated feet of an insulin dependent diabetic. So for this one, WKU just has to get in Ohio State’s way. Don’t miss tackles. Be fundamentally sound. If they beat you with their athleticism one drive, come back the next and hit them in the mouth the same way you did before. Make their job tough. If WKU gets in the way of OSU, there are plenty of reasons to think OSU might not quite get to 30 points. They have scored 23 against Indiana, a very low number for a national title contender against a program starving for Power Five wins. The Buckeyes only scored 35 and didn’t get 500 yards against Youngstown State.

That’s not elite offense thus far. They may pull that out this game, especially since Kyle McCord has been officialy named starter. He will now be focused on doing his job instead of wondering if he’s going to lose his spot the next drive. WKU just needs to get in OSU’s way, and the Buckeyes might just get in their own way offensively.

Marvin Harrison, Jr. vs. Upton Stout

Here’s a huge one. If you want to pull off what would end up being perhaps the highest profile upset since Appalachian over Michigan (no, that’s not hyperbole), the Tops are going to need their stars to be incredible. Perhaps the most important matchup in the entire game besides not giving up 400 rushing yards will be OSU’s receivers against WKU’s DBs. I specifically highlight this matchup. Now, will Upton Stout go straight at Marvin Harrison? Will he be a better matchup on Emeka Egbuka? I have no frickin’ idea what they’ll do. Obviously if they’re head-to-head all game, this is easy to measure.

Who’s better?

If they’re not straight at each other all game, who has the better game? If Marvin Harrison gets 200 yards, you can probably forget any kind of close battle. If he only gets 50 and Upton Stout has a couple of picks and one to the house, you could honestly start saying WKU is in a closer game than expected if nothing else. Upton Stout (or someone) has to have that type of game, and Marvin Harrison and Emeka Egbuka cannot go for 300 or more yards themselves. Make OSU do it some other way. If you limit those two guys, you have a huge chance to be in the game, and a decent chance to actually win it.

Krispy Kreme

Quality in WKU’s front six is obviously one of the essential improvements the Hilltoppers must make to win this one. Obviously, WKU has JaQues “Donut” Evans, and he is almost certainly going to have some moments where you just turn to an OSU fan an go, “Told you he was good!” But what else does WKU have to offer up front?

I’ll tell you this: If there’s only one Donut and not a whole box full of mouth watering deliciousness from the Tops, it’s scarlet and gray all the way. But if WKU’s front six and their backups really show up and are a tangible positive for WKU, the Tops have enough elsewhere to be immediately competitive based on only this improvement.

G’Day, Mate!

Australian punter Tom Ellard (and all of the special teams unit) must be excellent Saturday afternoon. Tom Ellard is not John Haggerty (former WKU punter now in the CFL). He’s is not going to bomb one for 60 yards every time he gets his number called. However, he’s generally going to be solid, he’s going to kick in the low to mid-40s, and he’s not going to allow too many returns.

Does he keep that up against better competition? Does he bobble a snap? Does he do a good job as holder on field goals? Tom Ellard could play a massive role in determining the details of this game. If Ellard was to average 50, that means every time WKU is stopped, OSU has to go another 8-10 yards per drive. If Ellard was to average 35 with a couple of shanks, WKU’s defense could start at their own 40 a couple of times and the game could get out or reach quickly.

In general, WKU’s special teams is usually well above average, but perhaps the most marginal part of the kicking game has been Tom Ellard. If WKU’s special teams are not excellent, that alone could keep WKU’s upset bid out of reach.

Prediction

Whether WKU fans are sitting at home “knowing” this is going to be a blowout, or whether they think WKU has a shot, or whether they are the ultimate homer thinking the Tops hold OSU to a field goal and win by 29 themselves, Topper fans will be tuning in to this one to see what happens.

What I hope is that WKU fans aren’t just checked out thinking this is going to get ugly. I’m realistic enough to admit that this could be hideous. OSU could easily come out, look like C.J. Stroud and Zeke Elliott are on the team together, and OSU could boatrace the Tops. That is absolutely a possibility. However, I want to caution both OSU and WKU fans: Don’t count the Tops out.

Coming in to this season, I told everybody, “Ohio State is going to be a terrible matchup for WKU.” I just didn’t like that OSU is a team similar to WKU in many ways. If they were a different style, sometimes the underdog can win just because they create logistical problems for the better team.

Well, guess what? Ohio State is not who I thought they would be, or at least not thus far. To be clear, that does not mean I don’t think they’re a national title contender. They are! But what I see is a team that is more of a possession type of team and a team that’s going to rely on its defense to carry them through.

Well, now you’re talking matchup issues in WKU’s favor for sure. WKU can play fastpaced, can speed up a defense with big bodies, and can definitely score on the ground and through the air. The Tops also have an excellent offensive line that can hold its own with anyone in America. WKU has athleticism in terms of speed in all phases, as well as Power Five bodies that can hang with other Power Five bodies.

The Tops have depth at most offensive positions and are also very strong at defensive back. They’re more thin elsewhere, but they have some positions with real depth and size.

Those factors could give any opponent fits. In addition, Ohio State has an offense that can struggle. They have a defense that gave up a few more third downs than expected. They don’t have a kickoff specialist that automatically puts it in the end zone every time. There are some exploitable issues here. This is not a foregone conclusion.

I’ll say this, too. If you’re not POUNDING WKU at +29 right now, you’re insane. OSU is yet to win by 29, and WKU is yet to score less than 17 points in a game since only scoring ten at BYU on October 31, 2020. It’s a pretty safe bet that WKU will score double digits, simply because WKU has a good offense. If they don’t, OSU is a nationally great defense and we’ll know that from now on. However, if we assume at least ten from WKU, that means OSU needs to get 40 or more. As the WKU score goes up, that means OSU must score 29 or more than that. At some point, if WKU scores a certain number, OSU will not be able to cover, no matter what happens within the game. OSU is unlikely to score 60, so if the Tops can score 20 or more, is OSU really going to come out of nowhere with a questionable offense and drop 49 or more on the Tops?

I digress.

As far as actually winning, I truly think there’s a chance here. However, am I really going to pick that as my legitimate guess? Absolutely not.

I think WKU is going to acquit itself well. I think OSU is still getting their stuff together, so this won’t be an absolute murder scene. It could be, but my heart of hearts says this is between a 17 and 25 point victory for Ohio State. I absolutely think WKU will cover barring absolute disaster.

I just can’t pull the trigger on a WKU victory with such a bad run defense. The pass defense (and the individual matchups) is there, but the rush defense has to make such an improvement that it’s just difficult to fathom how WKU overcomes that and wins outright.

I would love to pick a real nailbiter, but I want to be realistic and go with what I think ultimately happens.

I’ll take Ohio State 37-Western Kentucky 17.