WKU Football: Keys to Victory at UTSA

What WKU Needs to do to Exact Revenge on Meep Meep Nation

I’m pretty sure the Tops have had this one circled for a year. After having UTSA singlehandedly mar WKU’s incredible 2021 season, I’m sure the Tops are ready to play Wile E. Coyote and beat the Roadrunners to a pulp.

However, much like the cartoon, the Roadrunners outsmarted the Tops last season. In two games that WKU (3-2, 1-0 C-USA) certainly feels like it should have won, the Roadrunners did just enough to leave Bowling Green (regular season) and the Alamodome (2021 C-USA Championship Game) with the single possession victory.

That is not to slight the Roadrunners at all. Give UTSA (3-2, 1-0 C-USA) credit. Frank Harris is the real deal. He’s versatile, he can sling it, he’s tough, he can run, and he makes good decisions. Not only is this amazing quarterback really good, but UTSA also has a three headed monster at the wide receiver position, all of which could and probably will play on Sundays. They will all definitely get invited to a camp at minimum. De’Corian Clark, Joshua Cephus, and Zakhari Franklin all average at least 98 yards per game receiving. Cephus and Clark also contribute on Special Teams, although they are not the featured returner most games.

Without question, slowing them down will be key to the Tops ultimate success. Can they be stopped, though? They straight up made WKU’s DBs look stupid last season. Let’s be honest. Can WKU bump them around a little bit, or are they going to make the Tops secondary look like middle schoolers having to step up and start varsity?

We shall see.

UTSA does not run the ball as well this season, something that has kept them from being a truly unstoppable offense. They’re still plenty potent, amassing 500+ yards per game, but they’re mainly doing it as a function of Frank Harris instead of also having an elite prospect in the backfield like Since Sincere McCormick.

UTSA’s defense is also not as lethal as last season, giving up 34 points per game so far this season, not getting much pressure on the quarterback, and not forcing very many turnovers. They do a good job keeping the opposing team from exploding in the passing game, only allowing a shade over 250 yards per game through the air. However, every other defensive indicator says that UTSA is not as good on the defensive side of the ball.

It’s almost like the roles have reversed for this season. WKU is the more solid team, but UTSA has the more explosive passive offense that has to singlehandedly win games for them. There are a few things that are different for UTSA’s formula that WKU did not have last season. Bailey Zappe was not a prolific runner, although he could run. Frank Harris is the second leading rusher on this team, and that includes him getting sacked 11 times. He still averages 40 net yards rushing per game, meaning he is generally contributing 55+ positive yards with his legs per game.

On the flip side, UTSA does not have the big playmaking defense that WKU did last season. UTSA has not shown an ability to turn the ball over consistently, nor does it get significant pressure up front. WKU’s defense was atrocious last year, but the Tops also nearly led the country in turnovers and was really good at scheming up drive killing sacks. UTSA’s defense is going to try to keep you out of the end zone. If you score, you’re going to earn it.

So let’s get into how WKU gets out of the Alamo.

Keys to Victory

Spy the Quarterback and Force the RBs to Win It

Frank Harris is going to get his. But how effective is he down to down? Do you keep him to 25 rushing yards or allow him to go for 90? Do you allow him to pass it all over the field, or do you make his life difficult? Do you get to him when you blitz? Or does he pick you apart? It’s very simple. I believe slowing the receivers and slowing Frank Harris stone cold wins this game for the Tops as long as nothing else blows up.

Win Against the Law Firm

Franklin, Cephus, and Clark, Receivers at Large, need to be reigned in. WKU couldn’t stop these yayhoos last year, and it was very frustrating. They did whatever the heck they wanted. WKU was better in the second game, but they still struggled to do much against these three. I believe WKU has way more tools to stop them in 2022, but I still think they’re also better than they were last year. Clearly, if each of them is averaging nearly 100, you need three guys that can bump and run with these dudes. Fortunately, I do think WKU can go five deep in the cornerback/safety department to be able to for real give these guys a hard time. Am I saying these guys will not go for 300? No. They could easily do it. However, I think an attainable goal that will really make UTSA’s life difficult is just holding these guys under 250 yards receiving. If the Tops can do that, who else beats the Tops Saturday?

Be Able to Run the Ball

Whoever your rotation is, let it be three of them and use them all. WKU basically ran two different running backs against Troy. Why, exactly? I don’t know. Is Moses hurt? Is Sanders hurt? If they’re not, why go away from your 3 RB rotation? It’s been working well. If WKU wants success against UTSA, they have to be able to run the ball. That will keep the ball out of UTSA’s hands a little more, give the defense a chance to rest, and it will wear down UTSA’s defense. I’m not asking for 200 yards. I’m just asking for being able to run it some. 150+ would be nice, but less than 70 (like the Tops did against Troy) would be a disaster considering how average UTSA is against the run.

Put Harris on His Back (Without a penalty, please)

Now WKU’s defensive line is in question after a week where they were not consistently in the opponent’s face for the first time all season. Maybe the rotation needs to be shaken up, they need to run some stunts, need to play more linebackers, or whatever. But WKU was noticeably different against Troy, a team that probably should have been dominated up front given how they have performed thus far in 2022 on the offensive line. If WKU can’t get pressure, that means Harris probably has running lanes, he’s relaxed, and he’s calmly finding which of his three headed monster is most open. There are going to be times his receivers are wide open, and if WKU is up in his face while only rushing a reasonable number of players (three to five), he’s going to be forced to make educated (or hopefully panicked) guesses instead of staring down the barrel of a 40 yard gain and jogging down the field for the next play. It would be even worse if you hit him late and give him an extra 15 free yards.

Try to Score 70

Here’s your chance to play in a shootout, and you’re going to need every bit of 45 points, unless the defense really shuts UTSA down. I believe WKU gets more than 30 points in this game regardless. Even Texas Southern scored 24 on the Roadrunners, the lowest point total allowed by UTSA all season thus far. It’s definitely time for the Tops to start another 30 point streak. The question for me is, “How close to 50 do you get?” First of all, you might need it. WKU needed 50+ to beat UTSA last season. UTSA scored 52 in the first matchup in BG. If WKU wants to win, they need points, and UTSA defense should give it to them. If this game plays out in the 30s, I think UTSA feels good. If WKU can score 45, I think WKU’s defense should probably be solid enough this season to slow any offense down enough to win with that kind of cushion. But shoot for 70.

Prediction

I still stand by the fact that WKU blew those games against UTSA last season. If WKU had done what it normally did, the Tops would have won. But they turned the ball over, they got untimely penalties, and they generally could not run the ball.

This season, the Tops do turn it over some. They do commit penalties. But they also usually can run the ball. They also have a massively different defense. Many of the key players are a year older, and several players that start or contribute significantly have been on The Hill multiple years now. Some matchup issues with UTSA have actually graduated or transferred. Perhaps by subtraction, WKU is bigger, longer, and more physical than last year’s version in the back end.

I think UTSA is very good, but I see the same problems for them as WKU had last year. Bad defense. Bad running game. It’s all on the quarterback and his elite receivers and a good special teams unit to put them in the best position to win. Meanwhile WKU is the team that is more steady, has a pretty good defense, and has a quarterback that can run and pass with a running game that is capable of winning a game here or there.

That being said, I just think WKU is the better team. Unless they show several games in a row of poor line play, or they stop forcing turnovers, or they all of a sudden can cover anybody on defense, I’m not terribly worried about anyone remaining on WKU’s schedule. I believe if the Tops play well, they win almost every time.

I’ve got WKU winning in a competitive game decided by better defense and a good enough running game in the end. After reviewing everything and having a chance to look at UTSA in depth, I changed my mind from picking WKU 47-44 earlier in the week (see prediction article) to liking WKU by multiple possessions. Give me Western Kentucky 48, Texas-San Antonio 31.