WKU Football: Keys to Victory in the New Orleans Bowl

What WKU needs to do to get it done in the Big Easy

Gumbo’s especially warm this time of year, and I desperately hope to get a bowl or ten before I leave New Orleans Thursday morning.

WKU’s season looked a lot like a vat of mystery, with the Tops surprising us all by being really good both offensively and defensively to begin the year. With WKU’s struggles last year defensively on top of losing several really good defensive players, it stood to reason maybe WKU would struggle again. However, WKU did some good things to keep a good core and to add some much needed pieces up front and in the back end defensively to end up being pretty darn good.

Offensively, WKU was fairly up and down, starting out well, hitting some doldrums in October, and finding its stride again in November as the schedule eased up (besides 41-17 at Auburn).

Uncharacteristically of the Tyson Helton era, there was plenty of controversy related to some decision making by the head coach, as well as some offensive playcalling that many called in to question. Last season, the offense was great with no real issues. Tyson Helton’s decision making, for the most part, was unblemished. Defensively, the Tops struggled in many ways, except forcing turnovers.

Tyson Helton and Offensive Coordinator Ben Arbuckle took some heat this fall for some game planning issues, as well as some odd decisions by the head man. Western went for it on fourth down too much early in the year. I think that was much improved later in the year. I think Western got a case of the playcalling “yips” during the middle of the season, when they faced some good defenses that made it really hard for WKU to pass through the air. Western kept calling screen pass after screen pass, never really doing anything with much variety and absolutely stifling the chances of Austin Reed to show off his big right arm.

All told, in an up down year with a really brutal schedule chocked full of difficult matchups, WKU nearly backed into the conference championship game despite having subpar performances in close games in October. The Tops found a way against some quality teams and finished 8-5 on the regular season. Now WKU has a chance to finish with nine wins once again, something Western could accomplish for the third time under Tyson Helton in four full seasons.

WKU’s next opponent, South Alabama (10-2, 7-1 SBC) is a legitimate threat to come in and spank the Tops. If WKU doesn’t play well, it could be ugly. Then again, South Al sometimes can struggle to score, so this could be a spanking by WKU simply because the offense outperforms the other’s.

South Al plays great defense, barely allows 300 yards per game, and doesn’t allow its opponents to score 20 on most nights. The Jaguars score in the 30s on most occasions, scoring as many as 48 on the year and as few as six against Troy. WKU had uncharacteristic struggles, breaking its streak of 30+ points against Troy by scoring “only” 27. Western would go on to have only two games the Tops scored 20 or less, scoring 13 against North Texas.

WKU’s defense did allow 40 twice, but also pitched a shutout against FIU and had two other games where the defense allowed ten or fewer points. South Al also had three games surrendering ten or less points.

It’s clear South Al is probably the better “team”, but WKU may have more individual talent. Perhaps WKU has the more potential, but South Al is the most likely winner.

What does WKU need to do to come together and be the best team on the field Wednesday night?

Keys to Victory

Be Your Best Defensively

You are going against a really good defense. South Al is freaking legit. I know this is very generic, but by the Savior in the swaddling clothes, if the defense doesn’t show up as a group and be really really good in some way, this could be ugly. That’s no slight on the Tops, but assuming the WKU offense doesn’t completely explode, there’s going to have to be some defense played. JaQues “Donut” Evans has announced he’s back for another year, and we assume most players, even the ones like Kaleb Oliver who have declared for the NFL Draft, are still going to play in the bowl game. No WKU player is so high of a prospect that they should sit out of the bowl game. That puts WKU in a position to ask the best of this defense. Get it done, Tops.

No Farting Around

Everyone who follows this team knows exactly what I’m talking about, especially once I explain. This WKU team has a propensity to do weird things, or not execute in big moments, or bungle something simple on special teams, miss field goals, you name it. Several close games have gone the wrong way, and several blowout games became blowouts partly because of mistakes in make-or-break moments.

Also, in addition to good decision making, if you get a lead, extend it, or at least maintain it and keep the pressure on by scoring offensively. If you’re behind, it’s go time. Don’t wait until you’re down significantly to come alive. Also, please dear lord no goofy onside kicks (that don’t work). I believe since you’ve tried it multiple times, the other team is going to be watching. You better execute if you try some kind of foolishness like an onside kick or a fake punt on special teams, or I think people will go ballistic if it ends up costing the game. You are good enough to win straight up. So go win.

Air It Out

WKU had a midseason lull offensively. It seemed Western became skittish to continue doing what works in the air raid style of offense, which is, you know, putting air under the ball letting it fly. Teams starting figuring out the Tops’ outside screen game, and that became dangerous. After playing Troy, WKU tried some tunnel screens, which worked brilliantly because they were such a changeup from the normal outside screen and really gashed the interior of the opposing defense. However, WKU wasn’t and hasn’t really been consistent with figuring out what works. If a team figures out how to clog up the middle, the Tops have really struggled throwing the ball outside the hashes, so to speak.

Regardless of what South Al throws out there, Western needs to remember who they are and accumulate some passing yards. South Al has a great defense, giving up way less than 100 yards on the ground (87.6 ypg). However, the passing defense is good but not invincible, finishing 51st in the country in passing yards allowed per game. Passing lanes should be somewhat available. If South Al comes out in some kind of basic defense to balance out the threat of the Tops through the air, carve them up. If they go nickel and dime to stop the pass and keep six or less in the box, run the ball some. But you cannot forget your identity against this team. I don’t think going the route of the UAB strategy and running the ball is the way to go here. You need explosion and oh well if you turn it over a little bit.

Win the Third Phase

You’re the slight dog. Want to know a quick way to make up 4-7 points? Special Teams. Make your field goals, or more importantly, score touchdowns with extra points. Don’t make cute decisions to go for two too early. Take the field goal if it’s there and nail it right down the pipes. South Al’s punting is average. So is WKU’s. Who wins that battle? With a potentially defensive ish, field position type of game, who wins field position? South Al has allowed some yardage on punt coverage this season. Could that be something to exploit? Also, South Al is penalized nearly 30 more yards per game than its opponents. Could some of those come on special teams?

Be Poised but Physical

A couple of thoughts here…

The Tops really need to be physical and win the line of scrimmage. This is a tough task for this offensive line, partly because they’ve probably been busy in the portal “branding” themselves, but also because South Al’s defensive front is really good, amassing 28 sacks on the year, a number WKU exactly matches defensively. South Al’s O-Line has given up 22 sacks, while Western’s has only given up a miniscule 14 sacks (T-17th in NCAA). Statistically, this is an advantage for WKU. Does it mean jack crap? Not necessarily, but if both teams hold to their tendencies, that’s an opportunity for WKU to win a key battle.

The second thought is that obviously both teams need to be physical. This isn’t an exhibition show, and both teams have a ton to play for. Tyson Helton is trying to establish his momentum into the offseason and really parlay an excellent start to his time with Austin Reed and a really strong core. South Al is looking to cap off its best season in program history. This isn’t going to be some pattycake baker’s man kind of game. This should be a good one. So get physical, but realize South Al has a tendency to stir things up and get a little chippy. So do you. Western had real troubles early in the season controlling the personal foul penalties, along with an atypical issue of false starts and holdings. That has been put in check of late, but WKU at one point had only one game with less than 50 yards in penalties. South Al averages 75 yards per game. That’s really not good and it’s something to watch. Think of the Alabama/Tennessee game. Alabama lost that game because of penalties as the main difference maker. Watch the scuffles. Control yourselves. And maybe you’ll make up for some mishaps in other areas and pull this one out in a tough battle.

Prediction

I’m feeling good about the Tops. I think this timeline definitely plays well to the emotional preparedness. There was great mystery revolving around Austin Reed. He’s back. Every other “transfer” that we know of should be playing, and no one has committed to go elsewhere as of yet. A few players have declared for the draft, but if they are uninjured and still have brain function without severe narcissism, they should also be playing in the game.

Not only should WKU be at full-strength, but everyone should be fully engaged. Those that may leave should be motivated to show off to their new suitors. Those that stay (the clearly more smart ones) should obviously be investing into their future with the team. And heck, WKU had a heck of a year, folks. Surely, everyone is excited to get this party started, get a good win, and finish this version of the Tops off right.

That being said, this is going to be a tough battle. South Al is no joke. They have some really good players a group and as individuals. La’Damian Webb averages more yards per game than his team’s defense gives up per game, a real difference maker. He can also catch out of the backfield. Yam Banks is a safety with 5 INT, 10 PBU, 5 QB hits, 6 TFL, and a fumble recovery. The guy’s a huge, explosive playmaker to watch out for, making multiple big plays per game.

South Al’s kickers are all excellent. The punter kicks 1/3 of his kicks inside the 20, the kickoff specialist has one kick out of bounds all season and plenty of touchbacks, and the kicker is 17-of-18 on the season, including 5-for-5 from 40+ with a long of 49.

This is a complete team, so Western better come with the “A” game.

Let’s be honest here: There are a lot of ways for Western to lose.

Western could get shut down offensively. That has happened multiple times this season. Western’s defense could struggle to stop South Al. South Al could win by just being more solid overall. WKU could lose because of mistakes. WKU could lose because of big plays by very capable playmakers. WKU could lose by making dumb mistakes or poor decisions. WKU could lose just because South Al is probably the slightly better team.

These are all valid concerns. But I just can’t shake a feeling about the Tops. I don’t know what it is. It just feels right. And I’m DANG WELL not heading down to New Orleans to watch them lose.

So yeah, this is a tough one. South Al is, I’m sure (rawr) motivated. Those scary jag-yoo-are’s are I’m sure ready to rev their engine.

Nonetheless, I stand unmoved.

I think WKU is going to win by double digits. I know that seems crazy to many, but I like Western to handle business. I think Western has better players up front, I think they have tons of speed, and I think the Tops have more top end offensive talent and a general ability to score more when they play well.

I also think South Al has not been playing as well as they were early in the year. They nearly beat UCLA, but they also barely beat Old Dominion, needing to come back from a halftime deficit to beat a team with only a few wins. South Al has won five in a row, but they played the weak part of their schedule and didn’t really do anything to suggest they were playing their best right now.

I’ve got WKU in this one.

Give me Western Kentucky 34-South Alabama 23.