WKU Football: Keys to Victory vs. Appalachian State
WKU is looking to clinch a nine-win season for only the fourth time in its FBS history.
It’s bowl week, y’all! With everything else going on in Bowling Green and much of the rest of Western Kentucky, certainly we could use a little distraction. But first, please check out everything we’re doing to try to help the relief effort. Get involved. Let’s make a difference for Bowling Green and the rest of the west of this state.
WKU’s bowl game foes, the Appalachian State Mountaineers, have already donated thousands of dollars to the relief effort themselves. Something much more important than football is going on, so I take these first few moments in this to encourage you to go make a real difference in the lives of our neighbors and friends and strangers in the Commonwealth.
That being said, let’s also talk football. The players and coaches on both sides deserve the attention, as both teams made their conference championship games, falling short to ranked opponents in eight point games.
Appalachian State would seemingly be the better team, with two more wins than the Hilltoppers in a stronger football conference having proven more in their games against stiffer competition. However, WKU brings in the ability to score to the tune of 43 points per game and never scoring less than 31 all season.
Defensively, Appalachian State is clearly the better of the two teams, allowing less than 20 per game, amassing 36 sacks on the season. Three players have three or more sacks, four players have two or more interceptions, and the Mountaineers have six non-offensive touchdowns. For WKU, the Tops unquestionably struggle more to stop teams than App State. WKU gives up nearly 30 per game, and when a very deep offense like the Mountaineers with several very good options presents itself before the Tops this season, the Toppers struggle to stop said offense.
However, the biggest mismatch in terms of production certainly has to be offensively. Despite Appalachian State’s averaging a respectable 34 points per game, more than three points per game comes from a non-offensive touchdown, and field goal kicker Chandler Staton is 19-of-20 on three pointers for the season. Meaning he has been nearly perfect and they still struggle to score at times.
WKU’s quarterback passes for virtually the same amount of yards the Mountaineers from Boone, North Carolina gain as an entire offense. That doesn’t necessarily spell doom for the Mountaineers, but it certainly means something’s gotta give there.
That being said, it’s another fascinating matchup for the Tops. Let’s hop into the Keys to Victory this week.
Don’t Screw Yourself
This bullet point has to be listed. Sorry, but UTSA should not be the Conference USA Champions. Don’t get me wrong: They earned it. They were the better, more efficient team in the game, and they stepped up in the big moments in not one but two big games against WKU. But WKU threw away so many opportunities. Whether it was dropped passes, uncharacteristic turnovers, slow start, penalties, or field goals instead of touchdowns, my biggest key to this game for the Tops is just to play relatively mistake free football. When you look back at stats and big moments, football is most often won by the team that messed up the least that was most solid throughout the game. If WKU plays like it did against UTSA, you can almost be certain they will lose.
Make D’Marco Jackson Look Like Mark Jackson
Mark Jackson was a really good NBA player, and he stands out statistically as a top 100 player in several categories, but other than Rookie of the Year, he only made one All-Star appearance in all of his years in the NBA. App State inside linebacker D’Marco Jackson has been a really good, explosive player for Appalachian State his entire career, and he’s been around a while, just like Mark Jackson. Even in his freshman campaign, he was the second leading tackler of all underclassmen. His next year, he recorded 60 tackles, 6.5 TFL, and three sacks and a touchdown on special teams. Last season, he added another 31 tackles, snagged two interceptions, and recovered a fumble. This season, he leads the team in tackles by 45, totaling 114 tackles, 16.5 TFL, six sacks, an interception, five PBUs, 12 QB hurries, and a forced fumble.
What’s my point here? The guy is unbelievable. He produces DeAngelo Malone type numbers in the backfield while also creating turnovers through the air and making plays in the passing game and on special teams, even. He combines the duties of an inside linebacker, producing 8-10 tackles per game, while also being a pass rush threat like an outside linebacker or edge rusher. Therefore, what Western doesn’t want is for him to put his footprint on this game. He’s going to make plays. What you don’t want is for him to make destructive plays. Just be solid, lil Mark.
No More Than One Huge Non-Offensive Plays
App State has six non-offensive touchdowns (two kick returns, four interception returns). They also have another 90 yard interception return that somehow didn’t go for a touchdown, as well as a kick returner who has a 26 yard return or more in all but three games, meaning he’s almost always making a difference for his team at least once a game. I see the Mountaineers as a team that probably would not beat such a consistent, prolific offense like WKU without some big plays, either offensively or almost definitely defensively or on special teams. If an offense that struggles on third down that is competent, but doesn’t provide an explosive amount of offense on most occasions doesn’t get set up in easy positions to score, that’s a lot of pressure on an offense used to producing about four touchdowns worth of scoring that all of a sudden must score six or seven touchdowns to win.
It would be huge for Cory Munson to kick touchbacks and for John Haggerty to boom some punts (if he has any) inside the 20 with little to no return. Bailey Zappe is usually good for a silly play per game or two. If he does throw a pick or fumbles, what kind of field position results, or does App State take it to the house? I believe WKU could withstand one massive game changing type of play and be ok. But two I think is at minimum going to keep the Mountaineers in the game, if not hand them the victory.
Offensive Line Needs Its Best Performance of the Season
Why this particular game? First of all, ASU only allows 325 yards per game defensively. So the overall challenge is massive for any offensive line. But this game in particular needs to be their best, because sure, this is the best defense the Tops have faced all season, but also, in particular, the pass rush is not only prolific, but three guys have six or more sacks. Meaning every play, there are three very good pass rushers coming after Bailey Zappe. Every play, one of four players are likely to get in the backfield. Every game, ASU is likely to intercept the passer and return that ball or two for yardage. It’s way easier to plan for a DeAngelo Malone than having three of him on the field at the same time, in addition to having three Antwon Kincades in the secondary making down-by-down plays that are also threats to force a turnover. If the offensive line can keep it clean, Zappe can be free to read the secondary and second level, get a rhythm, and make the game a track meet. Slog bad. Shootout good.
Late Down Defense Needs to be Good Enough
This WKU defense is notorious for giving up some plays late in a down sequence, whether it’s by being too conservative or not always having the talent depth to make it through four downs without allowing the ball to move ten yards. The expectation here is not perfection, but App State is particularly not very good on third down (36%). Now, WKU fans (and App State fans), be honest. If WKU holds App State to that number, isn’t that almost certainly spelling doom for the Mountaineers? Western’s defense allows roughly 45% of third down and fourth down plays to be converted. Anything under that is completely fine for WKU. Again, stats don’t mean anything, necessarily, but if you constrict ASU to two downs to make plays, how do they keep up with WKU’s offense?
Honorable Mention Keys
Handle the Turnover Battle: WKU really turned it around on the turnover front late in the year, having several games with multiple turnovers forced. That would obviously help the Tops, but really, for me it’s about just staying even in this area or fairly close. Appalachian State will almost certainly force several WKU mistakes. How big will those mistakes prove to be?
Make the Easy Decision: This staff still struggles with in-game decision making sometimes. Should we go for two here? Should we go for it on 4th-and-5 at the 45? Should we go for it on 4th-and-1 at our own 48? 4th-and-3 from the 13 of App. State? I believe if WKU makes the percentage play, 95% of the time, they’ll win that collection of situations in the end.
Take away one of the running backs-App State has two running backs that average 75 yards or more each. Just keep them from having their normal explosive game. Camerun Peoples is the finisher, with 14 TDs on the year. Nate Noel has a few more yards but only has four scores. So don’t let Peoples bust a long one. Don’t let Noel score a touchdown. Keep them to their normal, and obviously try to keep them out of the end zone and be ok with the result.
Touchbacks and Fair Catches: Cory Munson can get a touchback on every kick in most conditions. Boom it, son. John Haggerty tends to boom his kicks so far downfield that they get returned. Locate the ball, have a good drop, and angle some punts and minimize the options of the returner. This would be huge for WKU to simply prevent long returns by booming it. Make them go the length of the field and live with the results.
Prediction
I hate to be a broken record, but any game WKU plays is really about WKU’s offense. Western’s defense can virtually guarantee a victory by holding its opponent under 30. And sure, technically the WKU defense has to show up and not be swiss cheese on every drive. But as long as they get a few stops, it’s really about WKU’s offense not handing the opponent easy points and converting reasonable opportunities for scores, whether it’s having a poor drive and still squeezing out a long field goal or finishing off a red zone appearance with a touchdown. If they maximize reasonable opportunity, they’ll almost certainly win.
In every WKU loss, WKU squandered opportunity. Against Army, it was an interception, then turnover on downs, then another turnover on downs later in the game. At home against Indiana, it was the famous Penix game, where WKU committed penalties, turned it over on downs, and failed to execute despite plenty of chances. Against Michigan State, a top 15 team from the WKU game on, the Tops had their opportunities, giving up a punt return for a touchdown, kicked three field goals, and fumbled, all in the first half. UTSA round one was dropped passes and penalties. UTSA round two was dropped passes, a muffed punt, an interception deep inside WKU territory, missed field goals.
Of course, teams make mistakes and that’s why they lose. But specifically WKU has shot itself in the foot to lose without question four of its five games in the loss column. Michigan State may have been a loss anyway, but in the first half, WKU tangibly threw away at least 19 points, if not 26, losing by 17. Ultimately, what is the point?
For WKU, it’s about WKU. WKU’s offense, if playing its best, is truly unstoppable. It hasn’t mattered what level of competition or what quality of defense, the Tops have found ways to score in every game. Appalachian State is absolutely the best team WKU has played besides Michigan State this season, though. UTSA is up there, but I believe the margin is significantly smaller against the Mountaineers than UTSA.
Appalachian State is littered with stars on the defensive side of the ball. Offensively, they have not one but two running backs with 75 yards per game. They have three receivers that produce everything for them, but they’re all really good. Their offensive line doesn’t make mistakes. The kicker is kicking 95 percent on the year. They score without the ball every other game. The punter has a lower end average but puts half of his punts inside the 20 and only has one touchback in 48 attempts, which is exceptional.
Unlike virtually every other team WKU has played, there aren’t many holes. But the one hole that could be the Achilles heel, so to speak, is at the most important position: Quarterback. Every other position is impressive, but WKU faces a quarterback that barely throws for 60 percent completions and only 232 yards per game. That’s not awful, but when Bailey Zappe throws for nearly 200 more per game, you start to wonder how Chase Brice could possibly keep up with the guy who could set the NCAA single season passing yards and touchdowns record by having a decent game. Zappe could have an above average game and crest 6,000 and blow the records out of the water.
App State’s defense is capable, but I’ve said it several times the past few weeks: They will have to do something no one has been able to do yet and hold WKU under 31, or Chase Brice is going to have to produce something he’s never done and hope Zappe doesn’t catch fire. UTSA caught lightning in a bottle in the C-USA Championship game. They were able to hand 49 on WKU without a great passing game. They relied on a ridiculous performance from Sincere McCormick, and a really good decision making performance by the quarterback. And they needed two stupid WKU turnovers in a row to put the game almost out of reach. And WKU had to sputter in the fourth quarter to not come back. And that’s against a top 30 football team.
Appalachian State is definitely a top 25 team if they didn’t lose to Louisiana-Lafayette twice. But it’s still about WKU’s offense. I think WKU is going to be motivated beyond belief for a variety of reasons: One is the band is breaking up after this game. Two is for Bowling Green. Three is they are chasing all kinds of history. It’s not off the table for Jerreth Sterns to reach 2,000 yards receiving in a season. Mitchell Tinsley could flirt with 1,500 himself. WKU’s O-Line has been rated the best pass blocking team in college football for the last three years.
So again, WKU’s defense has to be awful, and WKU’s offense has to be off its game. And Appalachian State needs to play its best on both sides of the football. If that happens, write App State down for the W. Just like UTSA played out of its mind and won by eight over a team that shot itself in the foot a thousand times, App State needs that type of outcome, and it needs to happen in two extremely important games in a row. And this time, WKU has the motivation of half a devastated state clinging to hope for positivity.
Don’t bet on the Mountaineers.
I see WKU winning this one despite how good Appalachian State is. I might be crazy, but I’ve got Western Kentucky (kicking five field goals and scoring four touchdowns), 43-Appalachian State 25