WKU Football: Keys to Victory vs. Austin Peay

What are the main things the HIlltoppers should focus on to start the season with a win?

It’s finally here. Western Kentucky football kicks off the college football season Saturday, and it’s against an old OVC rival.

The Austin Peay Governors come to Bowling Green for the first time since 2012. With both schools now in different conferences, they rarely face each other on the gridiron, although Austin Peay has a strong relationship with WKU in other sports, regularly scheduling competition with other programs on The Hill.

Last season, the Hilltoppers dominated offensively, but didn’t find their stride on the other side of the ball until halfway through the season. Western had a bit of a roller coaster season but ultimately finished at 9-5 overall. Austin Peay had an interesting season, beating a ranked FCS opponent (a quality win for a mediocre FCS team) but also losing several games in the OVC, ultimately finishing at 6-5 and not making the FCS playoffs.

Western Kentucky enters Saturday needing to replace a lot of offensive pieces as well as plug holes on defense and special teams.

Austin Peay looks like it might have a rough time against WKU matchup wise: The Govs probably would need a good offense to keep things close, and they themselves are replacing significant roles from last season’s team, especially offensively. Defensively, four of their top five tacklers are gone from last season.

Of course, this is presumably a good FBS team against a decent FCS opponent, so we would be painting a false picture if we pretended this should be an exciting matchup. It’s interesting because of some local intrigue, as well as an old rival from years passed. But don’t expect a barn burner for this one.

That being said, WKU has struggled against teams from the FCS level recently, for whatever reason. WKU would be foolish to not take this opponent seriously.

What does WKU need to do beat the Governors and set the tone for 2022?

The Keys to Victory

Don’t Peay Down Your Leg

Come on. You had to know that one was coming in some form. A school with “letsgopeay.com” as its website is just asking for ridicule. Because they’re so proud of the “Let’s Go Peay” and have never let it go for years, it probably surpasses any jokes that could be derived from Morehead State.

No matter how good WKU is in whatever year, they should never really struggle with a team from a lower level. Will this be an 87-0 smashing of West Virginia Tech level? Probably not. But Austin Peay should have to battle to get to .500 overall this season in the FCS. Pound them, make a statement, put some good film out there and don’t show your weaknesses, and let’s move on to Hawaii. Don’t screw up and the Tops are in a pretty good spot ultimately.

Score 30

With what should be a pretty decent WKU offense up against an offense that lost significant firepower in Austin Peay, scoring 30 should be plenty. Obviously, you would love to see Western hang up 50 or 60, and they may do that, but 30 should be enough to beat Austin Peay. I write these assuming the game could be close, so of course, you want to see your team come out and hang 40+ on an inferior opponent. If APSU is to actually win, they’re going to need a low scoring game. That ask could prove to be difficult, considering Austin Peay’s defense lost its top three tacklers and four of its top five. It’s really tough to see how APSU could become so competitive that they all of a sudden are a serious threat. That’s too many holes to fill on both sides.

Win Special Teams

Even though John Haggerty III is no longer with WKU, special teams is where the FCS and FBS differ the most. FCS only gets 63 scholarship players, while FBS gets 85. Most often, you should see better athletes on special teams on the “bigger” schools. WKU should have the depth to just be better in this area at every position on all special teams units. There may be a few individuals who are pretty good for APSU (like their punter, kicker, and kickoff specialist, who all return and were good enough to play in plenty of places at the higher level), but Western should just “out-athlete” Austin Peay here. Any other result is just unacceptable.

Now, that being said, Tom Ellard is definitely a question mark. How good is he? We know he’s older, like Haggerty, but is he a decent college punter, above average, or incredible? I lean more towards the former and certainly not the latter at this stage in his career. He does need a little bit of time to develop his feel for American football. But for now, he seems to struggle with both length of punt and accuracy, meaning he won’t boom it like Haggerty could, and he may put it in the wrong spot on occasion in addition to his ball just being a little short. As silly as this might sound as a real key to victory, what gives an underdog a real chance? Special teams blunders. Big return. Short field to work with. So win special teams and force the Governors to win straight up with their offense and defense and you’ve got a great shot to run away with this.

Have Some Defensive Line Presence

Throughout camp, we have heard rumblings that the defensive line needs to get pressure, that the coaching staff whiffed on some guys in the transfer portal, and that someone has to step in and fill DeAngelo Malone’s shoes on some level. Western had a ton of guys that produced last year, but who on an individual level is willing and able to become the next great one? Can someone flirt with double digit sacks? Can anyone get more than five on the year, even?

Regardless of the individuals and who really produces what, Western needs a pass rush. When Western had a decent pass rush last year, it was a different team. Other factors played in, but the Tops definitely didn’t get home much early in the year. Having someone (or the whole defensive line) step up and replace that kind of mammoth production would allow linebackers to play more normal positions, safeties to not hug the line, and a lot less holes would open up simply because the defense was accounting for the main weakness: Up front. I believe that’s the one thing I heard as the biggest concern from sources, from watching media availability, and just reading into what we know comes back, and it’s deeply concerning that the defensive front may not get into the backfield very often. Again, when you look at upsets, usually it happens because something abnormal happens. An FBS line getting dominated by an FCS line would qualify as abnormal. WKU’s D-Line should dominate regardless. Win the trenches.

Produce in the Middle

The tight end and linebacker positions last season could almost be non-existent at times. Joey Beljan did a heck of a job replacing Joshua Simon, who blew out his leg against UT-Martin, but the Tops had to get really creative to get Beljan involved in the red zone, basically hiding him and throwing a short pass and sneaking him in to the end zone. But Beljan was probably not ready to be the starting tight end and be expected to catch the ball five times per game. The tight end position made a difference blocking, but because Beljan was not a threat to stretch the seam or to apply or relieve pressure through the air, the offense lacked a steady medium level threat. When Beljan started picking it up, finding a way to score and produce a few yards, the offense went to a new level.

In the middle of the defense, the linebackers last season were remarkable absent at times. Part of that was injury, and part of it was just who was available. On paper, this linebacker unit seems like it should be pretty good, easily running five deep in a 4-2-5 system. Having a solid presence in the middle of the field on both sides of the ball is incredibly crucial. Offensively, tight ends force the defense to find a way to matchup to a big man that can run. An effective tight end that can read zone or man is just tough to account for. Defensively, linebackers are the players who are supposed to clean up the mess from the defensive line and hopefully don’t let big plays squirt out behind them. A really good offense finds ways to create and get easy first downs with tight ends on occasion. A really good defense needs productive linebackers.

If the Tops can start controlling the middle of the field with these two positions, the potential for both units swings upward for sure. Remember Jack Doyle and Andrew Jackson on the same team? Both made their units significantly better by being stars at their positions.

Honorable Mentions: Run the ball effectively, Protect the Back End, Reed the Defense

Without question, a major question mark is WKU’s ability to run the ball. Good news came out that Jakairi Moses was staying on the Hill after his entering the transfer portal, that Kye Robichaux is healthy and that Davion Ervin-Poindexter (Indiana) had transferred in. WKU has a few other options that look like potential depth pieces, as well. But without question, if WKU could run the ball consistently, it would be a relief for Topper fans in many ways.

WKU’s secondary is questionable, given the fact that they were susceptible last year at times, as well as losing some quality pieces on the third level. If Western could just not be awful in this area, that’s a great building block early in the year.

Austin Reed would do a lot of good for WKU fans’ anxiety by throwing for 600 yards and eight scores. Honestly, I think he’s the biggest key to the season, of course. Can he shoulder the load, and is he the next great WKU QB? And if he’s not, is he good enough to win big? That’s all that matters. Set our minds at ease, Austin. That’s all we need.

Prediction

If this game is anything but routine, I think anyone from a WKU perspective should be worried. Sometimes things can happen and a game can be close or even lost, but getting out there and doing that when you’re highly favored says something about your team. Blowing a team out with complete focus says something, too. If your team lays an egg, they’re possibly not as good as you thought they were. Or maybe your team is unfocused. If your team blows the other team out, it at least gives confidence to everyone and you go on to the next game feeling good about yourselves. An extreme blowout just shows that you’re laser focused on the task at hand.

Austin Peay does not seem like one of those pesky FCS teams that you have to think about whether there should be an upset pick. They do have some Power 5 talent and FBS transfers, let’s not discount that, but none of them have any kind of statistical reason to make an opponent deeply concerned. For example, Indiana State in 2011 had big receivers that had transferred in from high end schools and were able to have a field day against the Topper secondary and beat them. Central Arkansas has beaten WKU twice since Western joined the FBS. Sometimes it’s just a matchup thing with certain games. Losing to Maine was horrific, but that was partly full on coaching malpractice and certainly early season execution issues in big moments.

Sometimes these things happen. Games can be closer than they should be. Say the opponent is going to be down three scores heading in to halftime, and then the kicker misses or the ball is turned over in the red zone and the other team goes down and cuts it to one possession. Those moments are huge for football, and they can decide the game despite massive statistical disparity.

Austin Peay needs an upset. They need something to go wrong for WKU. They need WKU to just not be that good on Saturday. They need some blunders. Or Austin Peay just needs to be really good. Or all of those, I’m sure the Governors would say.

I’m not sure any of that is happening. If Austin Peay is competitive from a talent perspective, good for them. But I just don’t see it. Do you? Will WKU be so bad themselves or unfocused enough that they lose to what shouldn’t be that great of a team?

Hopefully the Tops don’t overlook the Governors. If they don’t, I don’t see trouble. I also just really like basically everything I’ve heard since the Spring, and I think this team could be a sneaky better overall team than last year. Last season, WKU’s offense was incredible but one dimensional. The Tops couldn’t run the ball and the defense was suspect, especially early in the year. This year, I think WKU’s offense will be a little more balanced, be able to run a little better, and I think we’ll end up surprised at the quarterback position. Defensively, I see really good linebackers, a good enough secondary, and defensive line pieces that could come together and make waves.

I felt shaky heading into life post-Zappe and Sterns and others. Right now, though, I am feeling good. Bring it on, Austin Peay. I’ve got WKU 43-APSU 17.