WKU Football: Keys to Victory vs. Charlotte

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are officially in the hunt for an East title. After handling two opponents easily on the road, WKU comes…

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are officially in the hunt for an East title. After handling two opponents easily on the road, WKU comes home to find Charlotte, a team with same record as the Tops in the Conference USA East Division, waiting for them.

WKU (3–4, 2–1 C-USA) is in a four way tie for first in the East with this week’s opponent Charlotte (4–3, 2–1 C-USA), FAU (who beat Charlotte this past week 38–9), and Marshall (only loss is to MTSU). This week is a chance for both to set themselves up as a true favorite or if either loses, virtually eliminate itself from contention for a championship. With two East losses to contenders, Charlotte would almost certainly be out of the race, but WKU would be devastated, as well.

WKU is generally an offensive juggernaut, but this past week, the Tops “only” mustered 34 against a game FIU defense that gave WKU difficulty, especially early. WKU found a way to get it rolling and still produced over 500 yards of offense. Western’s generally much maligned defense actually put up a heck of a performance, tallying seven sacks (all by different players), allowing a total of 290 yards, and only 28 net rushing yards. This was far and away the Tops’ best defensive performance of the year.

Charlotte is just coming off of getting punched squarely in the mouth by FAU, 38–9. This ugly game kind of skews Charlotte’s overall numbers significantly, but don’t let whatever numbers you see fool you: Charlotte can play in all three phases, and they have a quality win (vs. Duke 31–28). Head Coach Will Heely is known to be an energetic player’s coach, so in general, his teams will outperform their talent and do remarkable things in inexplicable ways. Charlotte has won low scoring games, they have scored when they had to, and they most recently had a head scratcher at home against FAU that really can largely be chalked up to turnovers.

That being said, what does WKU need to watch out for against Charlotte? What are the Keys to Victory?

Keys to Victory

Force Charlotte to Score

Charlotte has an ability to score points (over 30 three times this season; over 40 once), but they don’t do it consistently. Regardless of WKU’s defense, doesn’t it make sense the offense needs to click for them this game? Charlotte is probably going to come in motivated and desperate to turn things around, and WKU is likely feeling like it just needs to take care of business against Charlotte. That may be the case, but which teams stands to be sharper? The team that is desperate, or the team that is feeling good about its trajectory? My gut says Charlotte plays well and WKU needs to match the energy and intensity Charlotte brings. WKU’s defense may have another really good performance againt an offense that is not the best through the air (236 ypg), but don’t count on a defense that still averages giving up 448 yards per game and 33 points per game to keep a game in the low 300s in yards.

Win the Sack Battle

Charlotte’s offensive line started out its first four games giving up a total of four sacks. In its last three, it has given up three each. In WKU’s last two games, the Tops have exploded for 12 of their 17 sacks on the season. This feels like what should be a perfect storm of one unit coming back to Earth and the other unit finally coming together to be extremely prolific. WKU’s defense has come up with its two lowest point performances of the season the past two weeks. The common denominator: The front six has been dominant, creating all kinds of chaos, batting passes and getting to the quarterback.

Take Care of Third Down

This goes for both sides of the ball. WKU’s offense was other-worldly early in the season, converting way over 50 percent on third down. Now WKU has come screeching back to Earth the past two games, not even reaching 40 percent conversions. Meanwhile, Charlotte averages over 40 percent on third down offensively and only gives up 36 percent defensively. This looks like a big time advantage for Charlotte, which otherwise looks like a susceptible defense. But when a defense can get stops on third downs, they force opposing offenses to punt, kick field goals, or be tempted to go for it on fourth down. This ability to stop on third down shows in points per game and time of possession, both of which Charlotte overachieve in compared to many of their other tendencies. If WKU wants to limit opportunities for Charlotte and convert on its drives, the Tops need to be as good as Charlotte or better on third down.

Be Clearly Better in the Receiving Game

WKU has seven guys that generally produce every game. Charlotte has six. WKU’s numbers tend to be higher per guy, but it’s the same idea: Neither team launches the ball deep down the field every play. Most of the receivers for both teams average in the low to mid teens per catch. But it’s clear: WKU is more prolific and does have the tendency to bust more big plays. However, Charlotte has a capable group that can produce consistently. WKU needs to be the better unit, or the Tops could be in trouble this week.

Which Patchwork Running Game is More Effective?

Neither team has one single rusher averaging more than 55 per game. However, both rushing offenses have shown signs of competence. WKU doesn’t rush the ball as much, but of late, they’re pretty much getting 100 yards per game or more on the ground. Early in the season, it was appalling how badly the Tops needed a running game. Charlotte has been fairly consistent, rushing for an average of 160 per game and only having one performance under 100 yards total. These are two different philosophies toward running, but the statistical style and approach is the same: Put out several bodies each game and hope they can stay fresh enough to produce.

Prediction

Charlotte is more than capable. I can’t help but think the WKU defense will give up a little more than they have of late, but I welcome them to continue allowing no more than 20 per game. I just think it’s such a break in tendency that odds have to even out at some point. That being said, I think the WKU offense is due for a great game. Neither Old Dominion nor FIU was a game the Topper offense had to have felt great about. The last great performance offensively was against UTSA, when the Tops easily scored 46 and left points on the field.

I believe Charlotte is coming back to average, and WKU is absolutely on the rise. I believe this matchup would’ve been more dangerous for WKU if it was a few weeks earlier in the season. However, now that WKU has it rolling, I don’t see many teams stopping them. I think Marshall and FAU have gotten over their early season issues and seem to be doing fine. Charlotte, I think, will fade to third or fourth in the East.

I believe WKU makes a statement this game offensively, finally busting out for a 50 point performance. I believe Charlotte stalls on a few drives and gives WKU the margin it needs to win the game. I also believe the defense is due for a turnover or two. I’ve got Western Kentucky 52-Charlotte 31.