WKU Football: Keys to Victory vs. FIU

What does WKU need to do to start out 1-0 in C-USA?

Western Kentucky football’s season is already three games in. Can you believe it? In a few weeks, we’ll see the halfway mark of the college football regular season. With only 12 (or this year 13) regular season games, so much information is learned about each team each week.

Now that we’ve seen WKU (2-1, 0-0 C-USA) three times (well, two, unless you stayed up and watched at Hawaii) and against different levels of competition, we now know where WKU’s range of possibilities lie. With the loss to Indiana, that’s the first check off of the list in terms of coming back to Earth and realizing your team is not invincible. Now it settles in, and you develop a little more realistic outlook.

However, with what WKU has shown, perhaps the Tops are much better than they were supposed to be. Western has quietly developed and recruited quality players on defense, and now the defense looks like it may actually help WKU win some games on its own. Last year, the Tops relied on Bailey Zappe, Jerreth Sterns and Mitchell Tinsley to carry the lion’s share of the load for the entire team. Now, the offense is more by committee, but there’s much more balance, an underrated quality one looks for in a team looking to make a big splash.

Florida International does seem to be a program in the doldrums at the moment, but FIU has made a quality, experienced hire in Mike MacIntyre, a coaching lifer and Miami native who has made stops as a head coach at San Jose State and Colorado. Although he has a lifetime losing record, he has taken over troubled programs and nursed them back to health, winning National Coach of the Year in 2016 at Colorado.

Will it pay off to hire a veteran presence for the Golden Panthers? Only time will tell, but MacIntyre’s team already has one win on its docket this year that it had no business winning. Although Bryant should have been a shoo-in win, FIU got off to a bad start and ended up finding a way against Bryant, pulling the W out of nowhere late. Against Texas State, the Panthers struggled, really not getting a footing in the game. However, FIU has had some injuries, and they seem to be coming back to full strength after a bye week.

WKU gets the distinct disadvantage of a tough overtime game the week before versus an opponent that has had two weeks to focus on you and recover from early season tissue damage.

So what does WKU need to do win against FIU?

Keys to Victory

Ignore Vegas

FIU is expected to lose to WKU by 30 or more. The line started at 26 and has already ballooned upward with Vegas expecting WKU to win by more than four touchdowns. Want to know a good way to guarantee that won’t happen? Show up thinking this one’s in the bag. Show up disrespecting a conference opponent. This is the first game of the most important part of the season. Don’t screw it up. Come in expecting an absolute war, and if it ends up being a cupcake party, then have your cake and eat it, too. But a word to the wise: Florida schools always have surprising talent. They always can bust out and compete even if, on paper, they look like they’re an easy win. FAU and FIU are always recruiting underrecruited, super athletic Florida boys, and this team is no different with a large majority of FIU’s players hailing from Florida. If you haven’t met natives of Florida, they’re just different. These guys usually love to play, they bring a tough mentality, and they’ve played against good competition their whole life. Expect a dogfight.

Do What You’re Supposed to Do

It seems silly to make this a key to Victory, but Western has shot itself in the foot in both its two easy wins and its devastating loss at Indiana. Western is near the bottom of the country in penalty yardage, they’re in the bottom half in turnovers given, and they have not been very solid and certainly have not been consistent on Special Teams. Some versions of this idea will be on my Keys to Victory until WKU shows that they can fix little things. It’s frustrating because Western has a ton of talent. They just keep compromising their talent with their lack of poise early in the season.

Have Your First Great Game on Special Teams

I touched on this in the point above a little bit, but WKU’s special teams unit is yet to just completely click into place. Last week, it was the kicking game. Before, it was the return game coughing up the football. The punter can be inconsistent. Kickoff specialist Cory Munson kicked it out of bounds twice in one game, when last season, he only did that three times all year. WKU is yet to bust a huge return thus far this season. These are all things we’re waiting on, but if special teams continue to be an issue, WKU may lose some close games because of it.

Win Third Downs on Both Sides of the Ball

Western is really good at third-down defense this year. FIU is not good on either side of the ball on third down. However, did you know that WKU’s offense is also terrible on third down? One of the distinct statistical liabilities for WKU is its third-down offense.

Get this: WKU’s defense allows about 31% of third downs to gain a first down, good for around 40th in the country. On offense, the Tops only convert 31%, good for 113th in the country. That’s a huge area the Tops need to work on. Imagine a team averaging 39 points a game going from terrible on third down to decent! It’s baffling how WKU has done as well as it has without being able to sustain a drive without getting a first down in two downs.

Win the Big Moments

This is partly in reference to the Indiana game, but it’s also in reference to last year’s game against FIU. Despite completely dominating the Panthers, the Tops only won by 15. I say “only” because WKU nearly gained 600 yards and kept FIU’s offense under 300 yards. Basically, FIU moved the ball on its scoring drives and rarely saw another first down. WKU moved the ball but stalled out several times. Western has not given itself the best chance, underachieving in each game related to the scoreboard. WKU was better than Austin Peay but only won by 11. WKU was dominant against Hawaii, but kept them in it for over a half of play despite dominating. Against IU, the Tops absolutely won that game without winning it in the most important area, the scoreboard.

Prediction

Western should obviously win this game, right? They’re favored by 30+, they’re looking good, and the opponent seems to be rebuilding. Given Coach MacIntyre’s track record, FIU will probably be back to being a good football team, but it usually takes time with him.

I do think this is a danger spot for WKU. FIU is getting healthy, and they are coming off a bye week. WKU is probably beat up a little bit from a tough battle at Indiana. I wouldn’t balloon that up to something insurmountable, but depending on bangs and bruises sustained, some players will be slightly hampered.

Teams with new head coaches tend to get exponentially better over the season, so expect FIU to be at least a little better than they were against Texas State. Now, WKU has its own issues to work on, as well. Western will hopefully get better from its battle at Indiana, as well and negate the strides the Panthers take towards being competitive in Conference USA.

I tend to laugh at the outrageous line number and the numbers they think both teams will put up. I do think WKU will win, but I’m not thoroughly convinced WKU will be as dominant as the prognosticators and computers say. That being said, my score prediction reflects otherwise.

I do think Western is going to take a nice step in the right direction, and I believe FIU will not score more than one touchdown. I think FIU gets three field goals and is able to move the ball some, but turnovers and red zone stands will keep the Panthers out.

I believe in this defense, and I believe this offense should handle whatever pressure FIU brings.

I believe this is WKU’s statement game to C-USA that they are not to be messed with.

Western Kentucky allows three field goals but cruises: Western Kentucky 45 - Florida International 9.