WKU Football: Keys to Victory vs. Marshall
How can WKU gain the edge in Moonshine Throwdown VII?
It’s down to the nitty gritty. Bowl season, conference championships, and postseason positioning all come down to this week. 130 FBS teams are fighting for something this week. I was going to make some condescending remark about teams without wins on the season fighting to avoid embarrassment, but apparently there isn’t a completely defeated team in college football this season. I’m not sure if that’s ever been done, but it’s got to be one of the few times ever. Anyway, been there done that on the 0-12 front. Thank God no one has to endure that this season in the FBS.
But fewer programs have the opportunity to earn a spot in a championship this week. At most, only two per FBS conference can have that rare opportunity per season. So 20 of the 130 teams actually get to go after the hardware on championship weekend. In this case, WKU’s season has come down to a de facto “play-in game” to decide who represents Conference USA’s East Division.
After all of this, for the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, lookie who stands in the way: The Marshall Thundering Herd. Conference USA could not have drawn up a more perfect script: Last week, UTSA and UAB met for (virtually) all of the marbles on the West side (UTSA won in an absolutely incredible game). And in a separate week, the marquee matchup features a direct battle for the East. This is what makes sports so beautiful. It always seems like the script writes itself sometimes, because that’s exactly how it works: You never know what’s going to happen ever in sport.
In this case, WKU and Marshall, two programs who have seen significant success in years passed have struggled of late, running mediocre coaches out of town in exchange for the new shiny “young up and comer”. Western Kentucky’s Tyson Helton is is in his third season, but he inherited a program on a quick decline under Mike Sanford. It has taken him until this season to really compete for a championship.
Meanwhile, Marshall has not had nearly that drop-off, but Marshall natives were continually restless with former Coach Doc Holliday, that danged WVU alum whose contract was not renewed last January after a near constant conversation about his worthiness virtually since coming in. Doc had actually taken Marshall to eight straight bowl games and missed a bowl game in only two of his years when his contract was not renewed. Marshall only won one Conference USA Championship in more than a decade under Doc, and many observers felt like Marshall massively underachieved under his tutelage. In comes Charles Huff, a nice new shiny apple off of the Saban coaching tree and former running backs and associate head coach of the Tide.
So to set the table for the here and now, these two teams are statistically very similar. Both started slowly early in the year but now boast much more attractive overall records (7-4). In conference, WKU is 6-1 in conference while Marshall is 5-2. Both teams have played quality opponents in the non-conference, starting out with losing records after five games, but neither has a win against a team with a winning record. Both have a loss against one of the top two teams in the West Division, and both games came down to a final opportunity to score a touchdown. Both teams outscore their opponents on average by 15 points per game. Both offensive lines give up a shade over one sack per game, and both defensive lines are very good. Both teams hover around 500 yards of offense per game, even.
I could keep going, but you get the idea. These teams are not carbon copies of each other. They are also very different. But the similarities are fascinating.
Now on the other hand, there are some interesting differences in these two squads situated a few hours apart from each other. For one, WKU’s passing offense is far and away number one in the nation by measure of yards and touchdowns. Marshall’s passing offense is 11th in the nation in yards, so they’re no slouch, either. But Marshall’s touchdown to interception ratio is much more pedestrian at 16-13 compared to WKU’s 49-10. Marshall’s advantage offensively is with its running game. Led by superstar running back Rasheen Ali (103.8 rush ypg; 23 total TD), the Herd rushes for 66 more yards per game than WKU, who can’t boast 103 rushing yards per game combined.
So here is where the two styles distinguish themselves: Marshall is much more of a possession type of offense, while WKU is much more explosive, spraying the football all over the yard. WKU runs the football every once in a while to keep opponents guessing. Marshall is close to 50-50 between running and passing.
Defensively, Marshall’s defensive line is, frankly, insane (37 sacks). But here’s the strange part: There’s no standout stud that has a billion sacks. They just keep coming in droves. WKU holds similarly to this idea of a deep rotation, but has ten fewer sacks than the Herd front. WKU’s defense overall has been on a tear in the turnover department of late. WKU has forced an average of five turnovers per game the last three games. In addition, on their six game win streak, the Tops have allowed no more than 21 points in any single game. Marshall has been much more consistent defensively all season, and it actually shows in yardage, points, and turnovers throughout the year. Strangely enough, Marshall has forced exactly two turnovers in eight of their 11 games, but never forced more than two in any one game.
It’s a fascinating matchup, and I’m sure both fan bases probably feel they have the upper hand and look down their nose upon the other, bless their hearts. But regardless of opinion and bias, it’s an absolutely fascinating matchup and Saturday can’t get here soon enough.
But let’s get to my Keys to Victory before I run out of facts to gush out about the most exciting matchup in the history of this short but intense rivalry.
Keys to Victory
Just Hold Your Own in the Trenches
Before WKU fans get all huffy, I know that WKU’s offensive line is number one in the nation in pass blocking, but my God have you seen the numbers for Marshall’s defense in the sack and quarterback hit department? TFLs? No? Go look before you try to hunt me down and send hate mail. Sweet Lord in a barn, it’s impressive! I already mentioned the sack total (sixth in the nation in sacks per game). How about quarterback hits? NINETY. That’s more than 11 times per game (almost 12) the opposing quarterback has to pull himself up off the dirt. That’s every seven plays (including running plays), your quarterback is getting landed on. Know how many WKU has? 26 QB hits all season. 27 sacks, though. By comparison, WKU’s defensive line touches the quarterback a little less than every 16 or so plays. Marshall likes to send linebackers and everyone else. Only half or so of the sacks by Marshall come from the D-Line (more to come in another key on this). So again, hold your own and I think WKU should be in good shape. Dominate and obviously it’s a huge upper hand for the Tops. If it’s a clean pocket for both teams, advantage WKU. Just stay even.
Light Em Up, Up, Up
If you want to talk about percentage chances of winning, if this is a low to average scoring game, advantage Marshall, of course. Marshall scores 35 per game, so they can hang with WKU, which scores more than 42 per game. But Marshall is 0-3 when their opponent scores 31 or more. How often has WKU scored at least 31? Every game. No big deal. So if you want to make it to San Antonio, I think it’s going to take 40 or more. Scoring 50 would force Marshall to do something it hasn’t done with this particular group of players in the biggest game all season. For WKU, though, doing anything close to scoring 50 is a tall task that should not be taken lightly against this Marshall defense. It’s simple, but the Tops need to score. Force Marshall to play your style of game. Force Marshall to be able to pass like you can. Force Marshall’s receivers to step up and produce 100 yards apiece. Or force Marshall’s running game to carry the Herd for touchdowns and not field goals. The problem for WKU? Marshall only allows 187 yards per game through the air. They’re not going to let WKU breathe if at all possible.
Defense Needs to Get Five Stops Net of Turnovers
That doesn’t seem like that much, but this game is almost certainly going to be a shootout if it’s close. I would bet my house that the winner of this game gets into the 30s. So the style of the game will probably be to the tune of 67-66 in overtime or so. I think if WKU gets five stops, whether that is holding the Herd to field goals or completely shutting them out of points, it’s going to be very difficult for Marshall to keep up. If WKU is negative in the turnover department, let’s say they need that many more stops. If Zappe does like he did last week and throws a pick-six, that’s obviously a complete 14 point swing. If WKU gets a turnover back, that’s a net zero. The more turnovers, the more that team has to overcome. This is why WKU has had such an easy time the past few weeks. They’re been way positive in the turnover battle, despite having some obvious issues (including turnovers of their own) that didn’t matter because they were busy blowing teams out.
Be About Your Dang Business!
I sincerely pray that the Tops do not lose this game because of penalties. Marshall does commit a fair few penalties themselves, so like what happened last week, maybe Marshall will make as many or more mistakes as WKU and this won’t matter. But Marshall has also had some games where they had hardly any penalties at all. I’ll point out three games they had 30 or less yards in penalties. How many times has that happened for WKU? Actually about the same. But more importantly, how many times have we looked back and said, “WKU played well, but they weren’t very disciplined” or something similar? Quite often. UTSA and Indiana are perfect examples. Whether you agree with the call on WKU or not against UTSA, a penalty made it way less likely that WKU scored the go-ahead touchdown at the end of regulation. Against Indiana, literally penalties cost the Tops the difference in the game.
So my #1 message to the Tops: Don’t regret Saturday because you couldn’t keep your head. If Marshall whoops you, shake their hand and tell them congrats. But maybe, just maybe, cleaning up the foolishness will help the Tops get it done in Huntington.
Be Prepared for the Kitchen Sink
If I’m Marshall,’s defensive coordinator, I tell my guys that I don’t give a crap about how many yards they give up, how many points, or how many tackles they get or don’t get. I care about the effort and the fundamentals, and I am going to do everything I can to junk up the looks that Bailey Zappe gets and I’m going to hope that he completely aces the test. Why? Because nothing else has worked against him anyway. And because Zappe is usually due a couple of boneheaded plays a game. He’s not perfect, and if I get up in his face, he tends to panic a little bit. If I see that on film, I’m putting my safety on the line of scrimmage at the snap. I’m allowing a couple of terrible matchups in order to just make Zappe think about what the heck my strategy is. I’m dropping two linemen and sending a safety and two linebackers. Why not? (I exaggerate a little here.)
But regardless, I would anticipate antics unlike anything you’ve ever seen come Saturday. Maybe they’ll play straight up and be arrogant and just try to beat WKU straight up. I wouldn’t. I would junk it up and make Bailey Zappe think so hard (while hopefully putting him on the ground every seven plays) that his head wants to explode trying to control his environment while getting bludgeoned by my incredible defensive line. Great QBs deeply desire to control their environment, and they remain calm under pressure. If they’re confused, they don’t know where to turn. Zappe needs to see the Herd threw the kitchen sink and realize Marshall is going to have a plumbing issue if he just holds on and figures out how to raid the house that Leftwich built.
Honorable Mention Keys
Dominate Special Teams: WKU has the advantage in every department as far as the specialists, but Marshall has great returners. Dominate them anyway.
Don’t Let Ali Get Three: Rasheen Ali averages a little over two touchdowns per game (including his receiving TDs). Just don’t let him get to three in this one and you should be in pretty good shape.
Make Grant Wells Run Dry: Grant Wells throws for tons of yards, but doesn’t put it in the end zone twice per game on average. Don’t let him be someone he’s not.
Make Marshall Have One of “Those” Games: Statistically, Marshall has been up and down in several areas on all sides of the ball (turnovers, yards, sacks, etc.). Make them have one of “those” games in a few areas and see if they can make up for it elsewhere.
Prediction
I put a little extra effort into this one, because I think this matchup deserves it. On paper, this should be a really good game. Like I covered, both teams have the same record overall and win by the same margin per game. However, both go about it differently. Both lull the opponent to sleep with short passes and then BANG explode for points. WKU just does it as an all-out effort to asphyxiate the opponent. If they’re dead, they can’t get up and beat you. Marshall does it as a form of slowly constricting the opponent. Their opponents are dead before they realize it. Both ultimately kill their prey due to lack of oxygen.
I’m really debating how exactly I should frame this, and exactly what I think will happen. But I’m confident in what I ultimately believe will indeed happen. This Marshall team is very good. They can play defense, and they, unlike WKU, have proven that they can absolutely shut a team down with their defense. WKU is yet to truly just shut a team completely down. It’s had some nice performances, but WKU has never been dominant this season on that side of the ball.
However, WKU’s offense is the passing offense of 2021 in college football. Bailey Zappe could set the NCAA record for passing yards in a single season. Jerreth Sterns could get 2,000 receiving. Mitchell Tinsley is the second option on the team and will probably flirt with 1,500 yards receiving. WKU has six receivers with more touchdowns than Marshall’s top receivers have (two tied with three TDs).
I also think WKU has the clearly better special teams unit, although they do not always play a factor in every game, because the offense is generally so good that WKU doesn’t do much on fourth down besides go for it occasionally. So WKU has the advantage in two of three phases, and the third phase that they are not the best in, they are still competent, and they have advantages in some areas over Marshall in that one phase. I believe this WKU team is special, and I believe they are playing on a different level than everyone else right now.
I just don’t think Marshall can keep up unless WKU hands them several touchdowns. Whether it is a fluke play or two where Marshall busts loose offensively, or WKU turns it over a couple of times at inopportune times. Or WKU screws things up in the red zone and kicks several field goals. But I do not believe this game goes straight up, both teams play their best, and Marshall is just better. I think the Herd has a chance, and the computers say they are a decent favorite. Vegas says they are a very, very slight favorite.
I play the odds in my head and I just can’t get past these facts: Again, WKU has scored no less than 31, no matter who the opponent was. So first of all, what are the chances Marshall is the best defense WKU has faced and WKU somehow doesn’t score in the 30s? That percentage is not very high at all to see both in the same game. It would be WKU’s bottom eighth percentile performance (or worse). In English, WKU would have to put out its worst imaginable effort to not score 30. Marshall scores 35 a game. That’s very nice and healthy. That’s good for 24th in the nation. In their five highest scoring games, they have averaged 45.8 points per game scoring no less than 38. In the other six, though? 26.3 points per game and no more than 28. So there’s a clear separation there between really good and average.
In WKU’s worst five games offensively? Average of 36 with a high of 43. In the top five? 50 with a high of 59. I just think it’s all about WKU’s offense and about whether Marshall can muster the game of their lives offensively. If WKU’s offense is below its normal average, that spells trouble. But even if it spells trouble, there is a more than 50 percent chance that WKU would win by double digits according to pure statistical precedent between the two teams. If WKU scores 42, Marshall would need 43 or more, which would be its fifth most points scored all season. If WKU goes to 50, Marshall would have to do something it hasn’t been able to do all season.
So here’s what happens for Marshall to win, unless all precedent is broken and WKU suddenly can’t score. In all scenarios, WKU can’t play its best defense as long as WKU’s offense is average along with it. There’s almost no way Marshall can win if WKU holds Marshall below its average. Can we all agree on that? I think that’s very reasonable. Marshall needs to play its best offensive game and it’s in with a pretty good chance. Then it’s basically the coin flip to slight favor to Marshall Vegas and computers show. But Marshall simply cannot keep up with WKU’s offense if WKU’s offense fires on all cylinders. If WKU gets 50, are we really going to say Marshall can go toe-to-toe? That situation is very pro-WKU. Can anyone reading this deny that?
So that last little bit might seem like a load of horse manure. “Stats don’t tell the story, bro.” No they don’t. But stats tell tendencies, and they create a range of possibilities. For example, the University of Georgia gives up 7.5 points per game and has not given up more than 17. Now that doesn’t mean a team couldn’t score more than 17. But doesn’t it stand to reason that they probably won’t give up 30 at all this year? And if a team did that, it would have to overcome such a mountain that whatever team that was would need the performance of its life to do so.
When a team does something out of the ordinary for them, it creates new expectations. Well, WKU either needs to create a new offensive low, or Marshall needs to step up and deliver their best. And I’m sure their fans would remember it forever. And that would be a really cool story. But I just don’t see it.
Hopefully you don’t read this article and think that I think Marshall has no chance. I’d say they have a decent chance. But I think WKU is just playing too well right now. The percentage play for me is to bet on WKU. I swear if I saw Marshall as a favorite, I would pick the Herd to win. I would love to give WKU some bulletin board material.
But I just don’t see it.
Tops are a team of destiny. I’ve got Western Kentucky controlling most of the game and ultimately winning fairly easily. Western Kentucky 41-Marshall 27.