WKU Football: Keys to Victory vs. Troy

What WKU needs to do stifle the Trojan Horse

Western Kentucky is off to its best start since 2015. WKU will have to win four more in a row to best their start in that season.

Last week, the FIU Panthers looked like my daughter’s Plano Elementary Panthers against the Tops. WKU (3-1, 1-0 C-USA) won 73-0, and it wasn’t one of those games where the score was worse than it looked. It really was that bad. WKU dominated down-to-down more than any Topper game I’ve seen since the 87-0 mauling of West Virginia Tech in 2007. That’s the only time I remember true dominance on both sides like that.

Now, keep in mind that it’s one game, and yes, FIU is a conference mate, but they have been devastated by attrition, and much like Hawaii, is one of the youngest and most inexperienced teams in all of college football. But how many teams in the FBS have put up 73 this year, period? Utah over Southern Utah, 73-7. Ohio State over Toledo, 77-21. Ultimately, it means nothing, but it begs the question of how many teams could do that against whatever team they played? It’s certainly eye-popping.

So as you break it down for yourself, be careful to avoid being “wowed” alone by WKU’s statistics. After dropping in 73-0 and outperforming FIU in everything, all numbers are going to be a little skewed.

WKU’s incoming opponent is the remotely familiar Troy Trojans. Troy (2-2, 1-1 Sun Belt) was in the Sun Belt with WKU until 2014, when WKU was lured away to “better” waters right before Conference USA Judy McLeod dropped a load of bog monster juice in them. Troy was the dominant force in the Sun Belt as WKU was transitioning upward into the FBS, but has recently been average at best, rarely ever finishing near the top of the standings on the gridiron.

This year, Troy was picked to finish third in their division, not getting one single first place vote while six other teams were tabbed by someone to be a possible division winner. To put it more plainly, Troy was supposed to struggle to bowl eligibility. As strong as the Sun Belt is, that may hold true, but Troy really has looked like a contender for a Sun Belt title this season. The Trojans hung with App State, holding them to 32 points, held Ole Miss to 28 (!!!), and held Marshall down in a 16-7 sludge match. Those are all impressive performances, and the Trojan Wall looks quite formidable on that side of the ball.

In addition, Troy can frickin’ pass the ball, too. Speaking of which, WKU transfer Jarret Doege could see action Saturday once the Tops get up 74 or more. Just kidding. But he’s the backup and could a) provide insight into WKU’s playbook but also b) be juiced up to exact revenge on his former team.

Back to players who will actually play for their teams…

Troy’s quarterback, Gunnar Watson, is slinging the ball all over the field. If he can control exactly where he’s throwing it, he’s super dangerous, actually outperforming WKU QB Austin Reed in yards. Mysteriously, though, despite a massive passing offense, Troy only scores 23 points per game and only 11 total touchdowns (six passing, four rushing, one defensive).

Peeling back the onion a little bit, or if you’d like a Trojan reference, opening the trapdoor in the underbelly, Troy’s running backs really, really struggle to do much of anything. As a team, Troy averages 2.2 yards per rush with only four rushing touchdowns, picking up a Mike Sanford-esque 66 yards per game so far. Watson is virtually zero threat on the ground, rushing for no more than four yards on any one carry in four games. However, he is a threat to sneak, scoring twice on short yardage at the goal line. He has also sprayed the ball to the opponent more a little more than once per game, knocking down several opportunities to score for the Troy offense.

Defensively and on Special Teams, Troy is solid. Troy does allow a good chunk of yardage on the ground (145 ypg) but is really stingy through the air (209.5 ypg). In the third phase, the kicker and punter are solid and the return game is satisfactory.

In talking with the Trojan Wall, a really, really good site with lots of in depth content, they seemed to feel WKU is pretty much a mirror image of the Tops. Both teams like to pass more than they run, they run quick screens (although Troy likes tunnel screens more than WKU’s generally outside screens), they play good defense, and the coaches generally do a good job emphasizing special teams (although WKU has not played up to its potential in this area).

A few differences I see statistically and from reading comments and analysis from Troy is WKU definitely has a running game that they trust, and we know WKU can take the ball and run it. I see a better offensive line for WKU. Considering Troy is in love with the quick passing game, 12 sacks surrendered in four games is astonishing. Troy also has more wide receiver depth (five guys averaging 40+ yards), while WKU’s top two (Daewood Davis and Malachi Corley) do the lion’s share of the producing. Defensively, WKU runs a multiple look but essentially runs a 3-3-5 or 4-2-5. Troy runs a 3-4 ish type of scheme with a “Bandit” linebacker concept, meaning he will line up outside of the tight end toward the boundary most of the time. Sometimes, they’ll show a “Bear” look to make things more even up front. Ultimately, both defenses like to bring pressure and create chaos, so there is a ton of similarities.

This should be a good one. Let’s get into what WKU needs to do to get it done and continue keeping pace with WKU’s best start since 2015.

The Keys to Victory

Win the Turnover Battle

Without question, the one difference statistically that I see as a potential separator from these two teams is turnovers. WKU takes pretty good care of the ball and finishes drives, while Troy has turned it over more than twice per game and has come up completely empty on more than one third of its red zone trips (more to come on the red zone). If Troy and WKU all of a sudden change roles and WKU gets bitten by the turnover bug and Troy keeps it clean, wow. That probably means WKU loses to a very good Troy team.

Red Zone Execution

Without question, here is your next thing. For whatever reason, Troy can move the ball between the 20s and then will just struggle to finish. In only 7-of-17 red zone appearances have the Trojans put the ball in the end zone. That’s an easy ten points or more per game that fell off of the scoreboard for Troy. WKU needs to execute in the red zone for a different reason: Troy’s defense bends a little but doesn’t break often. However, once teams find their way into the red zone against Troy, so far, they’ve pretty much scored. On 10-of-14 red zone trips, the Troy defense has given up touchdowns. In a game that could equally be a defensive showdown or a thrilling shootout, red zone trips will be crucial in deciding who wins.

Shut Down T.J. Jackson and Richard Jibunor

Defensively, Troy is very good. But a lot of their guys are just solid. They get the job done. They get the ball carrier down. They don’t have many tackles for loss. However, these two guys are the playmakers. Both essentially play at the line of scrimmage, although Jibunor plays the aforementioned “Bandit” position and sometimes drops back in coverage. Regardless of their label, they’re disruptors. Combined, they have 9.5 TFL, 4.5 sacks, 4 QBH, and 2 forced fumbles. In four games, that’s huge production. If they’re making plays, they’re making big ones. They don’t do much else. They’re not massive producers in terms of volume, but they will blow up a lineman’s spot on occasion and create some chaos. Shut those two down and I struggle seeing WKU’s line having a tough time doing what it wants.

Stifle the Run, Blitz the Pass

There are different ways to approach a team that normally can’t run the ball. You can ignore it and focus on the better strength through the air, or you can stuff the run and force the quarterback to beat you by himself. If you can virtually eliminate a team’s ability to move the ball on the ground, it is almost impossible to win without some kind of ground threat. The quarterback is not a threat on the ground himself. Troy this year is very good in most areas, but the running game is suspect, so stop the run on first and second down. When you put the Trojans in an obvious passing down, pin your ears back and send some extra guys. Think of Bailey Zappe last year. Minimal running game, and Bailey could actually run some if he wanted to. Anyway, a very similar producer and pocket passer went 9-5 setting the world on fire because he had little running game. He truly had to do it himself some games. It’s all on Gunnar Watson this year offensively, and Troy is 2-2 despite looking impressive. Exactly. Stop the run and deal with some big plays. Ideally, WKU could do that without needing six or seven players to shade to the run. If Western could have four or five attack the run and still play mostly against the pass with the rest of the defense, Troy could have a tough time moving the ball at all.

Attack the Middle of the Field

One thing I noticed when watching some highlights of Troy is the bandit position sits so oddly slanted to the boundary that the field side of the play is usually open with very little traffic in it. Like we’re talking 10-15 yards of space. Put somebody in there and force Troy to play more inside. Then that will free up your receivers to work outside. I wonder if this could be a tight end/Austin Reed’s legs type of game if Troy doesn’t decide to plug the middle. There are three reasons for that: 1.) WKU has good tight ends and a mobile QB 2.) Yardage may be hard to come by up front and outside of the numbers 3.) Attacking the middle of the field would force the bandit to be more honest, helping against the pass in more ways than just rushing the passer.

Prediction

I started having to say this last year, but I think it’s starting to become valid this year. We’re now four games into 2022. For 14 games last year, the Tops scored at least 30. It’s now at 18 games in a row that WKU has been guaranteed to post up 30+ on a football scoreboard.

So in my opinion, it stands to reason that WKU will probably score 30 points. Let’s say they don’t. Obviously advantage Troy. If WKU does get to 30, though, is Troy capable enough to keep up with the Tops? So far, Troy hasn’t scored more than 38, and that was against an FCS school. Physically, if they’re called on to score 40, can they do it? Some offenses just can’t. I believe this Troy team could. They have enough firepower in the passing game to produce long chunk plays, and they do it a regular basis. Troy used to run a lot of tunnel screens when WKU played them in the early 2010s. Trojan Wall alluded to more tunnels than bubbles in some of their write-ups. How many teams are in love with tunnel screens? Not many. Stylistically, it’s an interesting matchup, but ultimately it’s two good football teams that play good defense that can move the ball.

I still see a few more weaknesses in Troy than WKU. My belief that this WKU Football team is pretty much without serious weakness is something I stand by. I see some weakness/advantageous matchups vs. Troy, and that is turnovers, offensive line, and the running game. Everything else seems to be pretty even. The key for Troy is minimizing the concerns, while WKU’s job is to not create any new ones.

If WKU can take care of its business, I believe the Tops are the more solid team with more explosive talent. I’m definitely respecting Troy, but like I said, it comes down to whether Troy can score 30. If they can score 30, great. They’re in with a chance. Now can they score 40 while not giving up 40? Can they do that without a running game? Can WKU’s really good pressure up front be neutralized enough to keep Troy’s O-Line from buckling under consistent pressure?

I just don’t see all of those things coming together for Troy. WKU has way more avenues to victory, while Troy has to overcome bad habits and still be good enough to hang with the Tops.

I believe this is not a complete and utter smashing by WKU, but it’s a solid win as WKU creates separation in the third quarter. I’ve got Western Kentucky 38-Troy 23.