WKU Football: Keys to Victory vs. UT-Martin

Football is finally here. Sports. Actual things to do. And we’re allowed to freely come in without (much) worry.

Football is finally here. Sports. Actual things to do. And we’re allowed to freely come in without (much) worry.

Western Kentucky takes on FCS program and OVC member UT-Martin in what national talking heads are calling “The opener of the century” Thursday night. Kirk Herbstreit himself said, “This has got to be one of the better non-Power 5 vs. FCS match-ups of the first week.”

Yeah, not really, but you know what? It’s time for football, and it’s time to find out what this Western Kentucky Football team is going to look like.

WKU takes on the Skyhawks of Martin, Tennessee (2:15 Northeast of Memphis) in what Hilltopper fans hope will not be remotely interesting. I know it seems like we shouldn’t have to talk about how to win against a team picked fourth in the OVC. However, WKU has had some issues in recent memory with FCS opponents.

For whatever reason, WKU is only 5–4 against the FCS since being a full-fledged FBS member in 2009. During that time frame, WKU is 73–67 overall. Go figure.

So without further ado, let’s check out what the Tops need to do to not only win against UT-Martin, but from a WKU perspective, hopefully make a statement to whoever takes notice (We’re coming for you, IU!).

Keys to Victory

Who Deals with the Weirdness Better?

The elephant in the room that needs to be addressed is that COVID sucks and has ruined many things. One of them is normal routine for athletes at any level. I’m pretty sure players on both sides will be fired up to play in front of a crowd. No one has really played in front of significant support in nearly two years. Also, an interesting wrinkle is UT-Martin just played real football in April. How has the roster recovered mentally and physically? They certainly will have some more injuries to spell more than the Hilltoppers.

Also, in addition to the obvious COVID weirdness, what about the transfer portal and its effect on college football? NOBODY knows how good anybody is going to be this year, because everyone scrambled up their rosters. WKU has bet the farm on a ton of transfers. Martin has a chunk of them, too, including a quarterback that Skyhawk Head Coach Jason Simpson seems to be pretty high on, saying he hoped the quarterback position was improved under his new horse, grad transfer (Tulane) Keon Howard.

WKU Needs to Win Decisively in the Trenches

There’s no excuse if WKU gets dominated on the line of scrimmage, and if they do, or if they’re fairly even with the Skyhawks, that spells big trouble, not only in terms of a nice comfortable victory, but frankly, WKU could easily lose if they don’t control the line. Here’s the issue, though: WKU has to replace some pieces on both sides of the ball and UT-Martin is very good and deep on the offensive line. Their defensive line leaves something to be desired, but they also return nearly everyone.

From the WKU perspective, standout young stud defensive tackle Ricky Barber transferred to UCF to pursue other opportunities. That really brings the production question up for the middle of the defensive line. Who will step up? From an offensive line perspective, WKU tries to replace Jordan Meredith, who is only one of the top grading NFL rookie linemen in the preseason. He was an underestimated beast, and he will be missed. Also, four year starting center Seth Joest has moved on, as well. This will be a challenge, but WKU needs to figure out how to be obviously bigger and stronger than Tennessee-Martin.

Just Be Better

WKU’s offense was awful last season. Let’s just be real. They didn’t even come close to 300 yards per game. “Piggy T” was a failed experiment, and WKU was left with no legitimate field general. Hopefully Bailey Zappe is the answer and we can move on from the possibility of a horrible offense. However, what about the running game, as well? Gaej Walker was a nice revelation, but first of all, he’s gone. Second of all, he still only mustered 750+ yards of offense. Jakairi Moses is the only significant contributor returning, but hopefully Bowling Green native and Navy transfer Jamale Carothers can play a role for the Tops. With a 700 yard season at Navy under his belt, one would assume Carothers should be the starter. Again, though, how does he mesh with very little time spent on The Hill? Again, the key is just to be pretty good offensively and WKU will have a winning formula for 2021.

Zappe Better Be Great

Don’t get me wrong here, folks. I 1,000% respect Bailey Zappe’s guts with an “n” for calling out that the Tops will run the table. El tiene unas cajones. Honestly, you look for your QB1 to have something about him that’s just different. Well, calling out 12–0 against a really tough schedule is one way to stand out. And hey, the guy is the second most prolific active offensive producer in all of college football. It’s not like he’s a crumb bum. He’s been labeled as a possible game changer from day one.

However, Topper fans, imagine if the guy talks all this talk and just flat out sucks it up! Wouldn’t that be deflating? I’m certain the team thinks the world of him. All they do is gush about him, and that’s great. Trust me, he should be fine. Go watch his Houston Baptist tape. But man if he sucks…

Handle the Standouts

UT-Martin has some really good players. They had eight guys make All-OVC that return for 2021. They return 18 starters. 73 letter winners. This is an experienced team that played significant football not that long ago. In theory, they should be pretty sharp. When you’re a huge favorite and should have the depth to overpower an opponent with less resources, you need to handle the other team’s best players. This key is just a general blanket statement. UTM has some really good receivers, a good tight end, an experienced offensive line. They have some good players on the back end of the defense. They have a good, young do-it-all punter/kicker. So contain them. If you can keep the stars from aligning, so to speak, who is going to step up and beat you? You put yourself in a great spot if you just do your job and don’t let someone go for a school record.

Stop the Pass

I know this is not really fundamentally sound advice. Conventional wisdom says “Stop the run”. When I asked Topper defensive coaches from several different staffs about philosophy, one idea was always similar: “We’re going to stop the run and go from there.” I understand that’s the best way to do it strategically. However, statistically, though, the biggest threats from a Skyhawk perspective are in the passing game.

Two wide receivers and a tight end were good enough to be recognized by the conference last season. Others have transferred in to make a really, really good receiving corps for an FCS team. They’re strong. And the offensive line is good enough to protect. And the quarterback, according to his coach, is pretty accurate and “not really a runner”. That’s dangerous in the passing game. Now, Keon Howard is mobile and, according to Head Coach Jason Simpson, “good with his RPOs (Run-Pass Option)”. So sure, the running game is important. But the Skyhawks averaged 75 yards per game on the ground last year. They didn’t average three yards a carry. Make them beat you on the ground.

Prediction

Honestly, I think Tennessee-Martin poses a bigger threat than many fans will realize. If WKU loses, it shouldn’t be a complete shock, especially considering that the Skyhawks have legitimate FBS talent at several positions. However, I am all on board with what the Tops are doing. I believe this team should be as good as the Brandon Doughty and Mike White-led offenses from a few years ago. And the defense has pieces on it that should be as good as some of the Willie Taggart era. There are some holes there, but Clayton White left the Tops in great position, and Mo Crum should fit seamlessly with this defense and have virtually zero issue stepping right in. He’s a bright young coach for sure.

For now, I see no reason to see WKU as anything but a stone cold favorite. I believe the Tops will come out and run UTM out of the stadium. I don’t think it will be that close, but hey the kicker’s good, so let’s say he hits three long field goals. I’ve got WKU: 45, UT-Martin: 9.