WKU Football: Keys to Victory vs. UTSA
Laying out the roadmap for how WKU wins the Ryan Conference USA Championship in the rematch against UTSA.
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have fought against all the odds, the early season defensive issues, avoided major injuries, and in the lottery of Group of Five Conference Championship opportunities, the Tops are ready to cash out their winning ticket.
Starting out 1-4 and 0-1 in Conference USA with a loss to UTSA, the Tops reeled off a ridiculous string of blowouts, looking like a Group of Five version of Georgia without the ridiculous defense but a better offense. WKU’s loss to 52-46 loss to UTSA at home in early October feels like ages ago, and it feels like WKU is a completely different team.
UTSA was flying high up until a buzzsaw in Denton, Texas this week derailed the bid for a perfect season, losing to North Texas in a game that was a bloodbath for the 22nd ranked Roadrunners. UTSA unanimously falls out of the top 25 with that shocking defeat, landing at 27th in the AP and Coaches Polls. And now that UTSA has lost a game and seemingly sputtered to end the season, the conversation now switches to WKU being the slight favorite and prognosticators wondering whether UTSA can get themselves back together. And also, even if they did play their best football, is WKU just too good for anyone in C-USA right now? Or did WKU just not play anyone the past seven games? That’s a completely valid train of thought.
These are all questions that will be answered Friday at 6 p.m. in the Alamodome in San Antonio. Until then, we engage in excited banter. Trash must be talked. Keyboard warriors will attempt to intimidate the opponents’ fans. As an insurance agent, I hesitate to mention USAA is located in San Antonio, so a Western fan will probably cancel their policies out of defiance. As a person who’s been to many Valeros, boycott the crap out of them. You’ll save yourself the transient stank associated with literally every Valero station ever.
I’m sure people from San Antonio will Google businesses in Bowling Green and set their Corvettes on fire, along with not wearing any underwear. To the .9% of San Antonio-ans that are my Scottish brethren, it’s not as big of a statement for you to get rid of your Fruit of the Loom for the week, but if you’re feeling it, let freedom ring, William Wallace.
So we can talk and talk. We can break down the stats. But the fact remains that a game must be played, and both of these teams, if healthy and clicking, are capable of beating the other.
Keys to Victory
Score 46 Again and Let’s See What Happens
WKU lost to UTSA 52-46 the first time. WKU was about as good as it could have been offensively in terms of yards, but definitely left some things out there on the field that cost them the game. But if WKU scores 46 with how the defense is playing now, UTSA would have to come up with something truly special (granted, like they did the first time). UTSA has only scored 46 or more twice this year, and it has not happened since playing WKU. So if WKU can get into the 40s, UTSA should have trouble keeping up, even if they play one of their best offensive games. Scoring 40+ is something WKU has done in eight of 12 games. UTSA has accomplished that number in five of 12 games. This conversation feels a lot like last week’s thoughts on Marshall. UTSA can defend, but can they slow down WKU enough, or can UTSA keep up offensively with WKU if WKU’s offense is borderline unstoppable? It’s hard to see a UTSA win if WKU gets much beyond the mid-30s in points. UTSA needs to try to keep WKU in the 30s or less for sure. Marshall did that for a half. WKU still won 53-21, outscoring Marshall’s total point output in the third quarter alone (WKU scored 23 in the third quarter Saturday). So, Tops, just do what you did last time offensively and let’s see where it lands you. Probably with a trophy in your clutches at the end of the night.
Avoid Crucial Turnovers
Both teams force turnovers and protect the football. Without question, both of these teams are good at this, so for one team to suddenly outperform the other in this area would be a huge change in tendency. I’ve said it the past few weeks: What if WKU didn’t force all of these turnovers? How much closer would these past four games have been? Now, could either team overcome a turnover issue? Yes, but how much more difficult is football to win when the opponent gets an extra two or three possessions? More importantly, how important was it in the last version of this game in Bowling Green? WKU forced a turnover on a drive where UTSA was moving the ball down the field. WKU had four-on-one down the field for a pick-six, and somehow UTSA forces a miraculous fumble and recovers. Then, to make it worse, they go down and score immediately after. Then WKU turned it over on downs in the middle of the field in the third quarter. That ended up not being consequential, scoring a touchdown before UTSA did anything else. But all of these opportunities add up to mean something. Obviously, Zappe throwing an interception with seconds to go sealed the deal for UTSA.
WKU must not make big mistakes in game-hinging moments. Do that, and you have to like their chances. UTSA manned up when they had to last time and kept WKU at bay just enough to win. Can they do it again? And can WKU force them to have to win that way? That’s the question.
Learn From Last Time
In a rematch, be careful about comparing last time to this time. However, what can WKU definitely improve, regardless of the state of each of these teams? We already covered turnovers. How about penalties? WKU outgained UTSA by 106 yards last time. Where was that yardage advantage lost? About half of it was 52 more yards in penalties, including a backbreaker on the last drive. But it wasn’t just that one penalty that cost WKU the game. It was the false start that made the difference between continuing deep in the red zone and kicking a field goal. It was the three first downs UTSA earned by way of WKU penalty, two of which were on the same drive early in the fourth quarter that allowed UTSA to go up eight on a field goal which forced WKU to go for two to tie the game, which the Tops missed. Also, more time was burnt by extending those drives in a tight game.
Also, speaking of two point conversions, this is something this staff has not mastered yet: When should you go for a two point conversion? In this case, WKU tries to tie the game at 45. Instead, they miss it and now, throughout the rest of the game, UTSA has an extra point in the bag that WKU has to make up. In a game with ninety points scored at the time, surely both defenses weren’t just all of a sudden going to start stopping the opponent. You want to know how big that one point was? UTSA then took that two point lead and went down and scored, making it a nine point game with 6:39 remaining. UTSA was up two possessions with less than half a quarter remaining. It changed how WKU ran that last drive that stalled at the nine yard line of UTSA and resulted in a field goal to put the score at 52-46. It allowed UTSA to back off on the back end and come after WKU up front. WKU got a little tighter, making sure they scored something in order to cut down the lead, relying on the defense to stop UTSA. The defense actually did it, but what if the defense had the breathing room to allow a field goal and still only be down eight? That one point completely changed the complexion of the rest of the game. It allowed UTSA to relax and just know that all it had to do was run clock, and WKU would be constricted to making an amazing comeback, which the Tops almost did despite it all. Hopefully WKU learns from some of these mistakes and just doesn’t make fatal ones in crucial moments Friday.
Most importantly, and I hope this is resolved with some basic experience, WKU’s DBs were put on an island by UTSA, and the UTSA receivers feasted. It goes without saying, WKU cannot get completely torched at will by UTSA’s passing attack if they want to bring home some hardware to Bowling Green.
Adjust to the Addition of Brendan Brady
Who’s that? That’s the backup running back. Sincere McCormick is a certified beast of a running back, but if he alone is forced to carry his team in the rushing department and is needed in the passing game, that is a lot on one man. Without help, McCormick need over 200 yards to be a one man position group. He’s also got a lot of mileage. The man needs a break every once in a while. Also, there are rumors and whispers of rumors that Frank Harris is nursing some kind of injury, most likely affecting his throwing motion. Against North Texas, UTSA went from passing 250-300 yards per game to not even passing for 200. Harris only threw 14 passes, completing seven. He only had 59 yards passing, and was not even the leading passer on the team Saturday, getting pulled early down 18. But Harris also had 97 net rushing yards, so he certainly contributed, albeit nothing like his normal true dual threat level of production.
What is my point about Brady, though? Regardless of injury concerns (or perhaps even more importantly if there are concerns), Brendan Brady was not available against WKU the first time. But the man is capable of producing yardage. He’s a much better option than anyone else on UTSA’s roster. He has had a history of injury, but when he plays, he is a really nice compliment to McCormick. So McCormick averages over 100 yards per game. That’s nice. But Rasheen Ali from Marshall does the same thing. As an offense, 100 yards rushing is not enough to dominate a game. UTSA needs someone like Brendan Brady to make the rushing attack that much more dynamic. McCormick and Harris combine for 146 yards per game. Brady has only played six games, but in the six games he has played, he has produced yardage, and last week, he led UTSA in rushing, including a 56 yard run. Imagine an All C-USA running back getting subbed out, you think you’ve got the run bottled up while he’s out of the game, and the backup busts one for 56 yards. That would be devastating and in a close game, possibly crushing for the opponent.
Account for the Firm of Hicks, Wiley, and Wisdom, Defenders at Ball
When looking at this UTSA defense as a whole, what I look for are gamebreakers. In other words, who stands out as a destructive or productive player over time? This is a game for everything these guys have dreamed about all season. In big games, big time players have to step up. So who are the big time players for UTSA’s defense? I promise on the Bible that I did not realize Clarence Hicks had the interception against WKU to seal the deal, but I picked him as a guy that stands out. Why? Because he’s a hybrid lineman/outside linebacker with an interception, sure. That did catch my eye. The guy only has 31 tackles on the season, but 14 of them are for loss, and he has eight sacks on the year. But he also has two PBUs, four QB hurries, and a forced fumble. He’s a gamebreaker. Perfect example of what he does against WKU: Only two tackles, but he literally won the game for UTSA when he was asked to drop back in coverage.
OLB Charles Wiley had one of his more productive games against WKU, but also this guy stands out as another gamebreaker, with eight TFL and two fumble recoveries. Again, he and Hicks are only good for 2.5 tackles per game each, but the plays they make are huge. Rashad Wisdom is a grizzled old veteran that is always around the ball. He had 13 tackles against WKU in the first game. He has 79 tackles this season, which is 24 tackles above anyone else on the team. He is a tackle machine, and he knows what he’s doing. He’s not a big play guy, but his volume is staggering compared to many of his other teammates. Wisdom also ended up on Jerreth Sterns a ton in the first game, so that matchup is going to be key to both teams’ game plans. What we’re watching for here is for these three guys to not be the reason UTSA is successful.
Wisdom is probably going to get some tackles, but does he provide big hits that set the tone, does he cause or recover a fumble? Does he intercept a ball for the first time this year in the championship game? What about Hicks and Wiley? Do these two guys blow up the line of scrimmage? Maybe they get one to three tackles for loss between them. That’s within the realm of normal. What if they get more? What if they get a couple of sacks? Watch for these three guys to make the difference. If they don’t, it’s going to take someone to come out of the woodwork to blow up this game for UTSA. Or they’ll have to accomplish it by committee, which is just difficult to do in a big game. Think Ndamokung Suh for Nebraska against Texas in that Big 12 title game. Think Malik Harris for Louisville two weeks ago, throwing for 300 yards and rushing for 200. Vince Young over USC. To provide a WKU reference for a performance out of the ordinary, Branden Lesten with three interceptions in the first half against #19 Marshall in the 67-66 upset in 2014.
Prediction
I keep thinking of the moment in Gladiator, where Falco tells Commodus that, “…a certain sea snake has a very unusual method of attracting its prey. It will lie at the bottom of the ocean as if wounded. Then its enemies will approach, and yet it will lie quite still. And then its enemies will take little bites of it, and yet it remains still.” Maybe that’s what UTSA is doing, because it feels like they’re kind of falling apart to end the year. Maybe they’re playing it coy, ready to pounce on the Tops. But there are rumors that Harris has injury issues of some kind.
We also hear from other sources at UTSA that there may be starter level players in the secondary that are questionable to play against WKU. Then again, that’s everybody this time of year.
Regardless, UTSA beat WKU, then blew out three more opponents. Since then, it’s been a monumental struggle for them. They were down to Southern Miss, a team that finished 3-9 overall, then barely beat UAB with some serious fortune to the tune of several plays that could have ended the game in the last minutes. Finally, they laid an egg against North Texas on the road. After starting 9-0 and looking like the stone cold favorite to win C-USA at that point, the Roadrunners sure look like they’re hanging on by a thread.
But regardless of what it looks like, UTSA is a good team. They already beat WKU. They’re a newer program trying to put themselves on the college football map. They’re carrying a huge level of motivation, and they’ve got a fan base behind them that is showing up and making a difference at their home games in a dome. That is a huge home field advantage, and something that should be accounted for.
And listen, even after losing to North Texas in a rout, statistically, UTSA compares quite similarly to WKU in many ways in terms of points per game, turnovers, and special teams. Now, the style of play is much different on both sides of the ball. UTSA has tons of linebacker production with not as much coming from the back end of the defense. WKU runs a nickel base defense, and the linebackers are not as essential to the plan. Offensively, WKU runs an Air Raid style, spraying it all over the field to the tune of well over 400 yards per game, only running when it has to. UTSA runs an RPO style, using a versatile dual threat quarterback and a couple of running backs (when healthy) who can bust loose for big plays.
The bottom line is that for UTSA, this is a very similar conundrum that Marshall had: You need to play your best game and hope WKU’s offense either stops itself or you come up with a way to steal some possessions. Or option b is try to keep up with the best pass offense in the country with your RPO style. It’s possible, and Frank Harris is a dynamic decision maker. The fact that he has the ball in his hands 75 percent of the game and rarely turns it over is remarkable. That allows UTSA to have a ton of margin to not be the best passing offense but still score points.
All of that being said, I will not make the same lengthy explanation as I did last week about why I see UTSA having trouble keeping up with WKU this time around. To sum it up, WKU can play its average offensive game and do what it did against UTSA last time and force the Roadrunners to score six or seven touchdowns. For UTSA to keep up with that, TSA has to be its very best. Now if WKU’s offense sputters, that opens a ton of doors for UTSA to win. 35 points is a much more attainable goal. But being forced to crank out 45 points in a run-centric offense is a brutal ask. So again, WKU’s defense needs to be its worst by far in eight games, WKU’s offense needs to be its worst of the season, and UTSA is in with a decent chance.
On top of pure offense and defense, WKU gives very little opportunity to opponents via special teams. The kicker doesn’t miss under 45 yards, the kickoff specialist gets touchbacks 60 percent of the time, and the punter should be named an All-American, although he punts less than 2.5 times per game. On top of that, WKU’s defense has been scorching opponents in the turnover department of late, forcing multiple turnovers in each of its past four games.
I have studied this WKU team all season. I’ve seen them in person. I have seen UTSA in person. I think the first game felt like it was under UTSA’s control, but WKU still had its chances and could directly explain why it didn’t win. And that was before the defense pulled itself together. WKU has now proven it can take good offenses of all kinds and make them look average. With the win against Marshall, they have now proven that they can score on a really good defense. UTSA has a really good defense, but I don’t see as much ability on the back end that Marshall has. Marshall matched up well defensively to WKU because they had the horses to go one-on-one with WKU’s receivers and give them trouble. Linebackers aren’t as important against WKU.
UTSA has more stars in the front seven, but Marshall was probably a little better of a unit. And I distinctly think UTSA is weak in the secondary, especially if anyone at all is banged up.
I just don’t see UTSA winning, almost no matter what. I don’t want to disrespect the Roadrunners, because it’s obvious they could win, but it’s really hard to see WKU not scoring 35, and UTSA is going to have to work around whatever hampering it does have with Frank Harris, but will also have to overcome what is now a really good defense in order to perform its very best while hoping WKU doesn’t light it up offensively.
WKU is a team of destiny, and it’s felt that way from day one. Everyone around WKU said it: If only this defense could keep people to about 30 points, WKU would never lose. Well, the defense keeps everyone under 21 now, so it’s almost impossible to beat WKU right now. I really think this one might be a big blowout. I’ve got Western Kentucky 54 - UTSA 17.