WKU Football: Quarterback Week — What Can Recent History Tell Us About Drew Eckels?
Welcome to the second week of football preview coverage here on The Towel Rack. Last week, we had Bold Prediction Week and this week, we…
Welcome to the second week of football preview coverage here on The Towel Rack. Last week, we had Bold Prediction Week and this week, we are going under center for Quarterback Week.
Western Kentucky fans have had a lot to be thankful for over the last near decade when it comes the the gridiron. One of those many factors of thankfulness is the stability at the quarterback position.
Since 2011, the Toppers have gone through three starting quarterbacks; Kawaun Jakes (who, once the Tops figured things out, Jakes figured things out), Brandon Doughty (who needs no introduction) and Mike White, who picked up right where Doughty left off.
2018 will see the fourth starting QB in that time frame, as Drew Eckels will head under center for the Tops’ season opener against Wisconsin. And, while we’ll have to wait until December to officially know the tale of the tape with Eckels, is there something past history can tell us about what we might be able to expect from Eckels in his first year as the man for the Tops?
(Jakes is being excluded from this list, as we are only going to count “first years,” since 2011. So, we’ll only be looking at numbers from Doughty and White.)
Right off the bat, I’ll concede the following point; the offenses run by Doughty and White, compared to the offense we expect Eckels will be running, were far more pass heavy. Here’s the pass attempts breakdown for Doughty and White as their first year as starters:
Doughty — 374 (under Bobby Petrino; increased to 552, a career high, the next year under Brohm)
White — 416
Having set all that up, there is a caveat: White attempted more passes last year under Mike Sanford than he did in his one year running Jeff Brohm’s system (560). But, it’s very possible Sanford changed his style of offense to fit White’s strengths, along with the Tops relying on the pass once it was established that the running game was not going to get things done.
White did, though, throw for fewer yards and touchdowns under Sanford. Do with that information as you will.
What does this mean for Eckels? Well, lets say the Chrome Domes still run a primarily pass-first offense. In Doughty’s first year, WKU averaged around 31 passing plays per game. For White, it was just under 30 passing plays per game. Lets say the Tops dip from around 30 to 25 passing plays per game — that’s 300 pass attempts at the end of the year for Eckels.
But, passing attempts only tell so much of the story. You can have 800 passing attempts, but if no one is making those plays, what is it all worth?
Doughty’s top targets for the 2013 campaign were Willie McNeal (46 receptions), Antonio Andrews (41) and Nicholas Norris (33).
For White in 2016, it was Taywan Taylor (98), Norris (76) and Anthony Wales (30).
While you’ve heard a lot about the youth the Tops pose in 2018, that doesn’t mean there aren’t playmakers in the receiving corps; Lucky Jackson, Quin Jernighan (both redshirt juniors) and Jacquez Sloan (who I am really excited to see this year) all can make plays, and Jakairi Moses showed a lot of pass-catching abilities (but he might miss a handful of games due to injury).
With the talent surrounding Doughty, he turned in a 65.8 completion percentage. White had a career-best 67.3% clip. And you know what, I trust the receivers and think Eckels turns in nothing lower than 63%. Hell, I’ll go a step further and say he turns in nothing below a 64.5%.
The final stat we’ll think out loud to predict; total yards!
The breakdown:
Doughty in 2013–2,857
White in 2016 — 4,363
That…is maybe the largest disparity we will find (other than touchdown numbers, which we wont think out loud on). Again, that speaks to the differences in offenses that each were run.
To break it down even further, by game it equaled out to 238.1 for Doughty and 311.6 for White. As for what Eckels will do, I’m going to split the difference and say somewhere in the 250–280 range (which sounds slow and un-explosive, but still will be one of the more exciting passing attacks in, at least, the G5).
When it’s all said and done, I don’t think it’s out of the question, based on his predecessors, to predict the following statline for Eckels;
Completions: 207
Pass attempts: 317
Completion percentage: 65.3%
Total yards: 2,952
Touchdowns: 22
Interceptions: 11
Rating: 159.5
Under these projections, Eckels would have the second-best rating of the trio; White finished with a 181.4 rating while Doughty had a 134.8 rating.
The last three quarterbacks to get the keys to the offense all did so under different head coaches. It worked out alright for the first two, and only time will tell if Eckels becomes the next in the growing WKU quarterbacking legacy.