WKU Football: Setting the Stage for New Orleans
What's been going on in Topper Football's world since WKU's last game in late November?
It seems like it’s been an eternity since WKU played its last game, beating Willie Taggart and the FAU Owls. On a semi WKU related interest point, the former Topper Willie T was immediately relieved of his duties right afterward. He has since picked himself up and finds himself heading to Boulder to join Deion Sanders.
So much has happened since the Tops won that last game. As speculation mounted related to both players and coaches, Topper fans went from feeling high after a good win to “Wait a second…” to “What the everloving CRAP is going on?” to “Oh ok it might be ok” to “Alright everything seems to be fine,” and back again. Add in the ups and downs of WKU Basketball and Lady Topper hoops and it’s been a real roller coaster for Johnny Hilltopper. And that has happened all in a span of three weeks or so.
Western kind of struggled against FAU, but ultimately pulled out an exciting win despite playing like crap against a pretty good football team, especially one that always played well in the Florida sun this season.
Transfer Portal Drama
Shortly after the bowl game announcement, players start announcing their transfer. A backup safety here, even the starting kicker, Brayden Narveson. But the real tipping point of panic hit when standout transfer QB Austin Reed entered the NCAA Transfer Portal.
All hell immediately broke loose.
All told, the number in the portal ballooned to TWENTY WKU Football players, a ridiculous number, and a number that was more than triple most of our peers in the Group of Five conferences. Given that Western had a good year and was literally one game away from clinching a conference championship appearance, why was everyone presumably bolting? It was assumed the players knew something we didn’t. Tyson Helton’s outta here, right?
Tyson Helton Considers Purdue
Well, rumors about Tyson Helton first to places like UAB, Houston, and most notably (and seemingly possible) Purdue, started to swirl. Was coach leaving? Is this the way of the world? WKU to Purdue to Louisville is the path? Are we just a farm system for Purdue? Is that what this whole thing is?
Eventually, the two parties mutually parted, the defensive coordinator from Illinois was hired at Purdue, and, at least for now, it really seems like Tyson Helton is staying and betting that he can finally break through with the cast of characters he should return now that things have calmed down and several players have backed out of the portal, including Austin Reed and some of his offensive cohorts.
Will the offseason finish with Helton at the helm? Before Mike Leach passed, everything felt settled. That very sad opening could cause some kind of chain reaction, but for now, we don’t know if that could somehow affect WKU. Given that MSU has appointed within for the time being, we assume there may not be as big of a carousel from that as it could have been.
Austin Reed’s Big Red Corvette
Thanks to Red Towel Trust and its “anonymous” and humble founders who are posting about it all over the internet, Austin Reed has a new NIL deal that kept him from transferring to Louisville. He saw the light, and I think he also realizes Western is his best opportunity to shine a bright light on a smaller stage and still show he has an incredible amount of talent even though he is still “just” at little ole WKU. Thanks to everyone that has been donating to Red Towel Trust for making that happen.
The truth about the portal is, 4,500 players go into the portal, but how many don’t come back out? There are a portion of kids that accidentally ended their college careers by opting out at their previous school and won’t find a soft landing. Others will go to places like Ole Miss, Louisville, and Prairie View A&M. Some will succeed, but many will not.
Frankly, the percentages show that the players that hang on and wait end up doing really well where they originally started. The ones that leave, especially the ones that “move up” may be squandering opportunities to play professionally, or perhaps, really ever see the field.
I think anyone with a heart is ok with kids being able to better themselves. However, if a kid goes to a big school and makes $70,000 a year but squashes his chance to play in the NFL, was it worth it? Even if he gets paid $500,000, do the math. NFL minimum salary is $705,000. That doesn’t include endorsements or business ventures or anything else. If you get paid as much as $1 million but miss out on the league because you left your previous school, you just lost that bet, and that is heartbreaking. However, it has happened to a couple of WKU players already. They left for “better” opportunity and were very average players at their new school and will absolutely not be playing professional football.
But Austin Reed has come back in style, garnering a deal that was nice enough to lure him back from the clutches of Jeff Brohm, newly hired Louisville coach, who I’m sure was dangling NIL and NFL in his face.
Corley Never Wavered
Talk about loyalty!
If you’re looking for a kid to NIL the crap out of, how about wide receiver Malachi Corley? The NCAA’s leader in yards after catch (YAC) most certainly had opportunity to at the very least flirt with a couple of suitors. Instead, he funnily enough trolled a bunch of people, talked about how he is the YAC king, posted some Bible verses, and ultimately announced that he was staying with the Tops.
He never announced any kind of desire to leave The Hill, never posted anything that really made you wonder anything serious, and made his statement that he wasn’t going anywhere and his future was here. How many kids will do that these days? Not many.
He wants to be an all-time legend here at WKU, something that will take him farther and make him a bigger name and give him more opportunity through WKU than jumping ship and being some talented transfer from some small school at some point that maybe gets his shot at the next level. No. He’s staying with the Tops, and he’s going to most likely finish on top of all the record books at WKU and he will absolutely get his shot to perform in professional football somewhere.
Most Players Will Be Playing in the Bowl Game
The good news is that whoever does transfer is not just abandoning the Tops. The Tops do have unfinished business, and the players that actually do leave in the portal can land better “jobs” and NIL deals by showing out in the bowl game. Those that are leaving for the NFL draft are unlikely to be high draft picks without a little more information for scouts. We don’t know exactly who is and isn’t playing, but we do know several key players, like all of the offensive linemen, Austin Reed, and other key offensive and defensive players will still be playing in the New Orleans Bowl.
Western should be near full strength, and they will need it. South Al was 10-2 this season.
Setting the Stage for the New Orleans Bowl
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have drawn Sun Belt Conference West Division runner-up South Alabama. South Al is a familiar foe, mainly on the basketball court, but the Tops have played South Al (2013 loss solely on Bobby “UNLV offered me escorts” Petrino). WKU played the program hundreds of times in its Sun Belt Conference days in various sports, and this does rekindle somewhat of a rivalry. South Al was the team WKU beat to go to the NCAA Tournament in 2008. South Al was the main obstacle for WKU Basketball in the mid to late 2000s at a time when the Jaguars were at their peak in round ball.
So both hardcore WKU and South Al fans will feel something towards the opponent heading into this game. This isn’t just some random opponent no one knows. There is some history there. There’s not a ton of vicious history, but this is a nice rekindling of some old flames, so to speak.
South Alabama is darn good, falling only to Troy in Conference USA and losing by one to UCLA. Eebadeebadee that’s all folks! If they had beaten Troy and/or UCLA, South Al could easily be ranked and could easily be Sun Belt Conference Champions. Heck, they probably feel they were a few points away from being the Group of Five representative in the New Years Six Bowls. Although when WKU left the Sun Belt, it was presumed that the SBC would be slightly inferior to C-USA, if we’re being honest, the Sun Belt is the stronger conference currently. Considering James Madison came in and nearly won the conference on its first go-round, the SBC is even more solid than anticipated.
At 10-2, South Al is a really good football team, and probably should and will be favored against WKU. South Al is favored by 4.5 in most books, and that feels about right. This game should be close, but given WKU’s drama and Western’s lack of ability to win most of its close games, perhaps the Jaguars hold the edge. Nonetheless, both teams score 12 more points per game than their opponents and gain 100+ yards more than their adversaries.
South Al has won five in a row, while WKU is only 3-2 in its last five and more telling, 6-5 to end the season after starting with a couple of convincing wins. In games decided by a possession or less, WKU is 2-3 but 2-0 recently. South Al is 5-2 in close games.
There are two ways to look at this: South Al is a good, well-coached team that generally gets things done in the clutch, and WKU squanders opportunity and has not shined in big moments. Another way to look at is both teams have had luck fall in different directions this season. With a couple bad bounces or turnovers, South Al could have WKU’s record or worse (or could be undefeated). With a couple of good bounces to the Tops, WKU could be sitting at 10-3 or 11-2.
WKU does most of its damage through the air, while South Al is decent through the air but is really strong on the ground with a 1,000 yard rusher. Both defenses are quite good. WKU’s defense is very explosive, forcing tons of turnovers and sacks. South Al’s defense is one of the best Group of Five defenses and really one of the best defenses overall in the country. If it weren’t for Troy’s ridiculous defense, South Al’s defense would have probably garnered the attention the Trojans’ defense has this season.
All in all, it’s going to be interesting. Both teams should want it, neither fan base has been to the New Orleans Bowl, and both programs really need big wins to solidify excellent seasons. On Wednesday at 8 Central on ESPN, somebody’s taking home some hardware.
Here’s to the Tops. Merry Christmas, everybody!
Let’s hunt some Jaguar to start the holidays.