WKU Football: Staff Predictions Week Four - Troy

How do we see the first meeting of these two teams in almost a decade going?

Even with all of us correctly predicting a big win against FIU last week, none of us thought it would be that bad. But it most certainly was.

This week, however, is a much tougher challenge as the Tops take on a pretty strong Troy Trojan team, especially defensively. Despite being 2-2 they did beat Marshall and almost beat App State the day they hosted ESPN’s College Gameday so they have some talent.

Do we think this will be close even with ESPN FPI giving the Tops over an 80% chance of winning? Let’s find out!

Matt McCay (4-0)

This season is shaping out more like last year than I thought. It seems like WKU’s offense is going to score 30, no matter what. This is an interesting matchup, because Troy hasn’t given up much more than 30 (32). Heck they held a quality Ole Miss offense to 28. So let’s not pretend like it’s impossible for WKU to be stopped. However, Troy is 2-2 for a reason, and it’s because their offense struggles to score. Only once have they scored more than 30, and twice, they have scored 16 or less. I believe Troy is a pretty decent football team, but I struggle to put it together to say they win this game.

I see WKU as a matchup nightmare just like last year, but here’s the difference: WKU is a better overall team than they were last year, with more options to win offensively (on the ground) and more options to stop you defensively (on third down). Last year, WKU couldn’t really run the ball with confidence. They couldn’t feel confident in their ability to be able to stop an offense. They really had to wait for a mistake or an opportunity for a turnover. This year, they’re the actors, and they will win a game or two for this team when the offense sputters. Will it be this game? I don’t know, but I can’t help but pick WKU by double digits. I think Troy will keep WKU from hanging 40, but I’m not sure Troy is able to hang much more than 25 on this WKU defense. Watch for turnovers to tip this to WKU at some point in the second or third quarter.

I’m still not supremely confident in the Tops’ ability to just blow everyone out, so I’ll take WKU: 38, Troy: 23 and hope for more.

Alex Sherfield (3-1)

Saturday will be reminiscent of the old Sun Belt days so I would expect to see nothing but total intensity for the whole 60 minutes. This non-conference battle shouldn’t be overlooked in terms of a “cupcake win”. Even in the four games they’ve already played, Troy’s scoring patterns can be all over the place, just averaging 412 yards per contest. Still, it’s a team that’s slowly finding their balance coming into October.

One of the most important tidbits to note is that the Trojans have a 3rd down conversion rate of 35%. As long as the Tops keep the ball moving on their end and control the tempos, it should be an easy day. WKU’s pass defense will have to be more acknowledging in covering the receivers and it give up any deep balls.

Carlton Martial (currently leads the team with 33 tackles) and TJ Jackson (6.5 tackles for loss plus 3.5 sacks) are the defensive playmakers that Troy will mostly rely on to calm down a surging Tops offense. The running duo of Robichaux/Ervin-Poindexter will be challenged for sure but I’d still look for a productive day from both halfbacks.

It won’t be a repeat of the 70 plus points that was brought upon FIU, but I have a good feeling that we can add more to our stat lines.

Give me WKU: 55, Troy: 27.

Devin Stewart (3-1)

Short and sweet. Give me WKU: 32, Troy: 24.

Jacob Giannelli (1-1)

WKU: 35, Troy: 24.

Jake Gary (3-1)

I think Troy will come out and surprise people with how well their defense plays. I think it will be a very defensive game following an offensive explosion of a game from WKU last week. I expect more field goals than usual as the bend don’t break mentality of both defenses takes over down the stretch. WKU still has enough firepower to pull off a multiple score win, and covers the spread in the process.

WKU: 27, Troy: 12.

Jared Rosdeutscher (4-0)

It felt so nice to not only see the Tops score over 70 points (we were so close to a real life “Tops by 90” moment) but also to see the defense shutout FIU. That’s the first shutout WKU has had since 2013 which is pretty wild to think about as successful as the program has been since then.

But for this one, I see it being a lot closer than others may predict. Troy’s defense is really good but will they be able to slow WKU’s offense down? I think they will be disruptive enough to cause some problems but not enough to ultimately pull this out off on the road. I predict a close game with WKU winning, 28-21.

Fletcher Keel (4-0)

From everything I’ve read and heard from our pals over at The Trojan Wall, this Troy team seems to be an exact mirror of how the Hilltoppers like to operate. Having said that, what they may make up for in defensive prowess, they lack in offensive efficiency and that might prove to be the difference.

That, and the fact that they had to grind out a win last week while WKU’s starters were able to hit the showers midway through the third quarter against FIU. This game has all the makings of one that will often feel closer than it actually is. I see the Tops rattling off two (or more) scores in succession of one another to jump out to a two or three-score lead and not look back, despite the Trojans always being at the Tops’ heel.

I’m willing to admit I’m still riding high from the blow out last week, but you don’t just luck yourself into 73 points at an level. This team is on the cusp of being special and a win this week will go a long way in getting them to that special place. I’m sure if things go wrong, we’ll look back and see all the warning signs, but I think this is WKU’s game to lose. I’ve got the Tops winning this one, 42-28.