WKU Football: State of Conference USA

I cannot wait to get this series started back. I love doing the research and looking at how every team in the conference is doing, who is…

I cannot wait to get this series started back. I love doing the research and looking at how every team in the conference is doing, who is disappointing, who may crawl out of the pack to take the title, and which team that may have been picked to win might plummet to a losing record.

It’s all interesting for me. Now that C-USA play is under way for every team in the conference (WKU is yet to play but plays a massive tilt against UTSA), let’s start looking at early season positioning. Who are the favorites, who is still in it, who has already played themselves out, and who is definitely on their way to the cellar but not mathematically eliminated?

Here we go! Let’s get it.

East Division

State of the East Division: Nobody frickin’ knows!

Marshall lost to Middle. That’s all you need to know. I mean seriously, who saw Middle, a seemingly awful team, capable of beating one of the favorites? Despite no one having a clue about the East, Marshall received nearly 3/4 of the preseason votes to win the East. They’re now on the back foot. Middle is already nearly out of the picture with two losses despite the biggest win in the conference. FAU and Charlotte are in good position, but they haven’t done much to show they are legit. Charlotte does have a win against Duke, but Duke looks like it may not win another game, so take it with a grain of salt. WKU seems to be far and away the best offense but gives up over 400 yards a game and 35 points. Can they stop anybody?

The Possibles

Florida Atlantic (3–2, 1–0 C-USA) seems to be a decent team with a really good fit for a head coach in Willie Taggart. The former WKU/USF/Oregon/Florida State Head Coach has bounced around, but the guy knows how to get his players to play a unique style that most modern college football teams don’t tend to play. His teams play defense and they run the football. This year, it seems QB N’kosi Perry can also throw the ball. FAU throttled FIU last week, but they draw a murderous next four games: At UAB, at Charlotte, home vs. UTEP, home vs. Marshall. Survive those with a .500 or better record and they’ll probably still be in the running in the East.

Charlotte (3–2, 1–0 C-USA) has a nice win against Duke, but it was early. They are clearly a fairly well balanced team, playing some defensive struggle type games, but also putting up points at times, as well. Also, don’t estimate the power of the schedule draw, because Charlotte may have one of the easier schedules in C-USA. First of all, they got MTSU to open up play. Then they get a struggling FIU. Then they do face two tough opponents in FAU and WKU. Then they get to play two fairly average West opponents in Rice and Louisiana Tech. Then they get Marshall at home and go on the road to ODU to finish the season. The timing of their schedule is wonderful. They can get off to a great start, and even if they stumble sometime, they have opportunities to make up ground at the perfect time with key games in the division. Watch out for Charlotte.

Marshall (2–3, 0–1 C-USA) dropped one to Middle. What the bloody hell happened there? Six turnovers and only lost by six. Outgained MTSU by nearly 200 yards. So they pretty much were better but coughed the ball up so many times that MTSU was bound to win no matter what. But if you look at the Herd’s bigger picture, they are not out of it. Middle is not going to win the East, already being virtually out of the race with two losses. I believe Marshall has probably screwed itself with that loss to Middle. That is really bad, and it’s a game they never should have lost. But Marshall has a chance to build itself some equity by beating some fairly easy opponents the next few weeks: ODU, UNT, and FIU. But after that, Marshall has four potential losses: At FAU, vs. UAB, at Charlotte, vs. WKU. That’s brutal, but if any program can find a way, Marshall can. Never count them out.

Western Kentucky (1–3, 0–0 C-USA) is the only team in C-USA not to play a conference game yet, but WKU walks straight into the fire against UTSA this Saturday at home. UTSA is undefeated and is now odds-on favorite to win C-USA. So WKU obviously faces a monumental task this weekend, but if the Tops can find a way, the schedule opens up pretty nicely the rest of the way, all things considered. WKU gets ODU, FIU, Charlotte, MTSU, Rice, FAU, and Marshall. If WKU gets past UTSA, first of all that’s a big statement to the conference, but also, it gets rid of the most serious early season obstacle and opens up a winnable schedule from there. With WKU’s offensive prowess, they could be a nightmare for most C-USA teams. WKU could easily walk into its last two games just needing to win to secure a championship appearance.

The Impossibles

Middle Tennessee (2–3, 1–2 C-USA) has that shocking win against Marshall, so technically they’re still in the race, because the East is weak enough to have a 6–2 representative go to the conference championship game. However, it ain’t happening for the Blue Raiders. They actually haven’t looked that awful this season, but I don’t think Middle can stop anybody, and I don’t think they can score explosively consistently. They don’t have a bad schedule left if they can find a way past WKU in Bowling Green. But I just don’t see it for them.

Old Dominion (1–4, 0–1 C-USA) is just off of canceling their season in 2020 because of COVID, so they are just now building back any kind of momentum. Unfortunately for them, they have had some close calls but haven’t executed. Old Dominion is not expected to be a formidable opponent, but they always provide somebody trouble. I would watch for them to upset somebody at some point this year. They may only win two or three games, but they have some ability and have hung in a few times with better opponents. With a loss already, ODU is nearly sunk, especially with a tough schedule going forward.

FIU (1–4, 0–1 C-USA) has already run its coach out of town. Butch Davis frankly did a heck of a job at FIU, but anyway he has now retired and FIU is probably a complete and utter mess internally. That mess showed when they gave up 700 yards to FAU last time out, losing 58–21. Having lost to FAU, FIU now draws all of the best teams in the East all in a row the next few weeks. They will likely be out of a bowl game opportunity by the end of October. But again, if they can pull themselves together, their last four games of the season are all winnable.

The West Division

State of the West: Clearly Deeper but Top Heavy

The West Division is known by most in the conference as the better, more proven division. UTSA is obviously legit. UAB won it all last year and is very good and well-coached. UTEP has looked like a contender so far. La Tech is a fringe possibility, but they have strong tradition as a competitor every year. Rice, USM, and UNT are probably the clear bottom of the division, although Rice has not proven itself inferior just yet. A hierarchy may be settled by this weekend if UAB and/or UTSA lose, or if one team dominates its East contender and the other barely squeaks by.

Favorites

UTSA (5–0, 1–0 C-USA) has earned its overtaking of UAB as the conference favorite. UTSA has two quality wins on the road in Illinois and Memphis, while UAB has looked human, getting blasted by Georgia and Liberty. So give the Roadrunners credit so far this season. However, they do face a serious road test in Western Kentucky. WKU has proven itself a dominant offense, so the Roadrunners could have trouble. If they can find a way past WKU, their schedule really opens up, with about as favorable a schedule as possible in the West Division.

UAB (3–2, 1–0 C-USA), as aforementioned, has looked human in a couple of games. But if UTSA had played Georgia and Liberty, they might have looked foolish, too. So is there really any reason for Blazer fans not to feel pretty confident? Honestly, if UAB can figure out its quarterback issues, it should be fine. UAB has not been prolific through the air, but the Blazers can run the ball and play defense. They have also had a couple of dominating wins, so it suggests a pretty solid roster if a team can keep plowing forward on people without slowing down once the game is in hand.

Dark Horses

UTEP (4–1, 1–0 C-USA) has done what it was supposed to do: Win games it should have. There’s nothing particularly spectacular about UTEP in general, but the general impression I get is they’re probably going to go to a bowl game, and their schedule may work out well enough that they can be close in the standings at the end of the year. The layout of the schedule is not bad for them, and if UTEP is within a game of contention, perhaps the final regular season game against UAB will give them a chance to establish a new sheriff in town.

La Tech (2–3, 1–0 C-USA) has competed fairly well this season. All three losses were by a touchdown or less, and all three were to good competition. So don’t sleep on La Tech. The Bulldogs have a really rough schedule, drawing UTEP, UTSA, UAB, and Charlotte four of the next five weeks. Those are all pretty good football teams that could win C-USA. But after that gauntlet, two easier games sit waiting for the the plucking in USM and Rice. I think due to schedule, La Tech is going to struggle. But if the draw was a little better, maybe they could really make some noise.

Rice (2–3, 1–0 C-USA) is generously considered a dark horse here. That’s simply because they haven’t lost in conference yet. Rice has been completely blown out of the water by 21 or more three times already, barely winning against Texas Southern and USM. Rice also probably has the worst draw in the history of the world, drawing WKU and Charlotte from the East division, in addition to not really having any opportunities to rest against some inferior opponents.

Already Out

Southern Miss (1–4, 0–1 C-USA) is not technically out, but they are in rough shape. It doesn’t look good for them, having lost a winnable game to Rice. Getting throttled by South Al is pretty humiliating, but South Al is also 3–1 on its young season. Southern Miss doesn’t seem to have that bad of a draw schedule wise, but they’re already in a hole. The next couple of weeks should knock them out of contention with UTEP and UAB, but if it doesn’t, now we’ve got a nice opportunity to stack up some wins and be in contention for the home stretch.

North Texas (1–3, 0–2 C-USA) seems pretty dead in the water, as well. La Tech beat the Mean Green 24–17. UAB then throttled them 40–6. SMU blew the Mean Green out, and Northwestern State was an easy opponent and easy victory, as it should have been. UNT’s schedule is not that bad, but now they have two losses and it would be a remarkable journey to magically score some luck and find a way to a championship. But it just feels like the Mean Green will find a way to lose several games between now and the end of the season.

State of Conference USA: Wide Open

Of course it’s wide open. No one is mathematically eliminated yet, so everyone is still going to be feeling hopeful. I remember when WKU was in the midst of going 0–12 and we were just thinking, “Hey we just need to win six in a row and we might share a conference title!” Everyone thinks like that, whether they’ll admit it or not. You’re in it until you know you aren’t, and with COVID and everything still a possible threat to derail a few games or a few programs here and there, every team should scratch and claw for each win. You never know. But there is also a clear top half of the conference that the division winners will come from. MTSU is out. UNT is out. USM, Rice, ODU, and FIU are likely out. Marshall is on the outside looking in but should still play some kind of factor. But everyone else is live. WKU, FAU, and Charlotte are all in position to win the East and seem capable. UAB and UTSA seem the clear favorites in the West, but La Tech and UTEP seem like decent teams, as well.

Stay tuned for a weekly update on the state of the conference!