WKU Football: The Tops of the Line
Better’s guide to Western Kentucky vs Hawaii
This is going to be a late night game which means there will be a lot of people putting action on this game while they have been over-served and are stumbling around in casinos and bars. But why wait until last minute to put money on this game when you can read this article and decide what you want right now? Let us dive right into the best bets (in my humble and trash opinion) for this late night showdown between WKU and Hawaii. I will be using the numbers from Draft Kings sportsbook for this article.
The Spread (WKU -16)
WKU is favored by 16 in this game. And I’ll be honest with you… I don’t think WKU will cover. Now I will say it is very possible but hear me out. WKU didn’t cover against Austin Peay at home. They will then have to travel to Hawaii and play at midnight eastern time, which is hard to do, and especially hard to get a good start because you are not used to that crazy time difference. I see WKU having a slow start against this Hawaii team who is desperately trying to prove that they aren’t absolute dog water like they looked against Vanderbilt. Because let’s be honest, Hawaii got embarrassed last week and I have a hard time seeing a repeat performance. My advice here? Take Hawaii +16. I think it is close until the fourth quarter and Austin Reed turns it on like he did last week and Hilltoppers manage to pull away and seal the deal late.
Over/Under (67.5)
Will both teams combine to score 68 points or more? I don’t think so. WKU didn’t hit the over against Austin Peay and Hawaii only hit the over because they gave up 60+ points to Vanderbilt (Vandy single handedly hit the over in that game with their points alone). I think it is pretty safe here to take the under, especially if WKU starts slow like I think they will. I also don’t think we will see Hawaii make as many mistakes in this game, considering they gave up two fumble returns for TDs in their game last week against Vandy. Hawaii will be more focused, and I see the game not getting away from them like it did last week so quickly.
Moneyline (WKU -700, Hawaii +510)
It is almost not even worth it to bet on WKU at -700. I would stay away from the moneyline in this game unless you are putting WKU to win in a parlay to boost the odds slightly. Or if you want to bet on Hawaii for the upset, but you should probably be prepared to lose that bet. It may be the homer in me, but I just don’t see Hawaii winning this one.
Stats to Consider
A great follow on Twitter is my guy Parker (@Statsowar). He breaks down the advanced stats in every football game. In this tweet below he breaks down the advanced stats for Western Kentucky vs Hawaii. Now these stats won’t reflect much due to it being based on one game each, but you can see he is very high on WKU to win, and not only that but to cover the 16 point spread and hit the over on points. I just wanted to throw this out there in case you all wanted to completely ignore my advice and bet based off the stats instead. But like I said earlier, I expect the under to hit and Hawaii to cover in this one.
Cheeky Bets
One cheeky bet I am HIGH on is for Hawaii to score first at +145. You can double your money and with a little cherry on top if you take this bet because I really do expect WKU to start slow. Plus Hawaii scored first in similar fashion vs a slow starting Vandy last week. I say hammer this bet.
For my cheeky Parlay of the week I say take Hawaii to cover at +16 (-110) with Notre Dame to cover against Ohio State at +17 (-110) and Louisville to cover vs Syracuse at -4.5 (-115). The Notre Dame game is risky because well, it is Notre Dame but I think the Louisville cover is easy money. Put all three in a parlay for what should be a solid payout.
Well everyone, Good luck and hope you all kill your bookies this weekend! Go Tops! Be sure to gamble responsibly.