WKU Football: Tops of the Line - Troy
Checking out the odds in the Western Kentucky vs Troy game this weekend
Troy travels to Western Kentucky this weekend and gives Western the closest spread that Western is favored in on the season (Indiana was -7, favored by a touchdown) at -5. No other spread besides the Indiana game was within -10 so it looks like this is being projected as a close game. Usually odds makers give the home team a -2.5 spread starting out so that means on a neutral field they would expect WKU to win by a field goal. The moneyline backs this up as well, with Western Kentucky at -195 and Troy at +165. If both teams are in the -100, +100 range that indicates a close game is expected to be on the horizon. It also seems that expectations are for it to be the lowest scoring game of Western’s season because the over/under is set at 54.5. That is the lowest over/under of the season, the second lowest being -61.5 (the Indiana game).
The Spread (WKU -5, Troy +5)
I like this spread a lot, I think that odds makers have not quite grasped how good this Western Kentucky team is. I would hit on the -5 spread for Western Kentucky this week. WKU has been pretty solid against the spread thus far this on the season, at a 3-1 record with the only loss being against Austin Peay when they failed to cover thirty plus points. That was the season opener where they were still calibrating and locking in so can you really hold the one loss against them? Hit the spread on this, and if I may say, hammer it even. Especially if you think Western wins by a touchdown or more, that way you have better odds (spread is -115, while out right moneyline is -195) and therefore, a better payout. One thing to watch out for when making this bet however, is the fact that Troy is also 3-1 against the spread this year, the only loss was in similar fashion to WKU, failing to cover on a very large spread against an FCS team. Either way, I think Western has a really good shot to win this game by two or more scores if they show up and do what has been winning them games this season.
The Moneyline (WKU -195, Troy +165)
The moneyline is a good pick for three reasons. Reason one would be that you like Troy to upset the Tops and win the game out right. Reason Two would be if you think The Tops and Troy have a really close game and that WKU can not cover the spread, but will still pull out a win, maybe by a last second field goal. The third reason would be to put them in a parlay with other teams and you don’t want to take the spread in that parlay. Personally, I like betting the spread on this game, so I wouldn’t take moneyline unless it was reason three.
The Over/Under (54.5)
This over/under is pretty low, like I said above - the lowest on the Top’s season. Western Kentucky is likely to score 30+ points this game (I’ll explain further why that is in the next section), and Troy has had their fair share of offensive struggles this year. This is set in a really tough spot. I wouldn’t do an over/under bet on this game personally, but if I had to choose I would say go with the Under. A score of 38-14 doesn’t hit the over, and I imagine the final would be around that range.
Cheeky Bet of the Night
Tops team total is set at -30.5. WKU has went 18 straight games at home scoring above 30 points, which is the longest streak of that kind in FBS football. I would say them scoring above 30 is a lock. When you are playing roulette and it has hit on red 18 times in a row, you better ride red until the wheels fall off. Hammer the Western Kentucky team total of -30.5 with confidence for the Cheeky Bet of the night.