WKU Football: What I Think I Think Ahead of Troy
Maybe the second toughest test of the year awaits the Hilltoppers this week and, if they can successfully get past the Trojans, we might have a special team on our hands.
I don’t know about you, but I’m still in awe over what happened on Feix Field on Saturday. We all knew the Tops would beat FIU comfortably, but I don’t think anyone thought they would take their will in the way they did.
With the Panthers in the rear view, it’s time to focus on what could very well be the second biggest test of the year for the Hilltoppers in the Troy Trojans.
Troy is 2-2 to start the year, with both of their losses coming on the road (at Ole Miss, at App St. in a finish that went viral). Their two wins, both at home, come against Alabama A&M and, most recently, Marshall.
Now it’s the other half of the Moonshine Throwdown for the Trojans, as they’ll look to continue their dominance in the all-time series.
Ahead of a big week for the Tops, I think…
I think it’ll be nice to reignite an old rivalry. I’m not sure how big a “rivalry” this was, at least in football, with Troy leading the all-time series 9-2-1, and the Trojans winning five of the last seven meetings in total. It’d really be nice to get that third win.
I think rumors of the Doege Bowl were greatly exaggerated. Upon news of Jarret Doege’s transfer to Troy, he’s struggled to supplant Gunnar Watson and that could continue into Saturday, with Watson posting a QBR of 159.9 against the Herd.
I think, on paper, the Hilltoppers and Trojans are very similar in their style of play: They both have gunslingers under center, have something of a main two-headed rushing attack (though Troy’s looks a bit more balanced in the timeshare) and go deep in the wide receiver corps. Statistically, WKU gets the edge across the board, even if only slightly, in those three areas, but it’ll be fun to see just how similar these two teams are.
I think success for the Tops will live and die by how much pressure the WKU defensive front can put on Watson and the Trojans rushers - DK Billingsley and Kimani Vidal. WKU got pressure early and often (through three quarters) against IU and was almost unstoppable against FIU. Even if you say “Well, FIU is no good,” having a game like that has to be a confidence booster for the unit and that confidence can transition into this week.
I think we are underestimating Austin Reed’s rushing capabilities, just a bit. It isn’t enough to close the gap between his passing yard total through four games when compared to Bailey Zappe, but it is enough to make him a red zone threat. In terms of pure pocket passers in the style of Brandon Doughty or Zappe, Reed is unquestionably the best runner of that bunch and while we’ve seen Hilltopper quarterbacks have success on the ground (Kawaun Jakes, Mike White, Ty Storey, Tyrrell Pigrome) Reed’s able to do it in a more dynamic way, because a lot of teams aren’t taking his rushing into account. Don’t be surprised if he ends the year with a sneaky-high total of rushing scores.
Assuming a WKU win, the final score on Saturday will indicate in a big way what type of the rest of the season we should expect and where this team will fall in WKU history. If we get a, say 21-17ish game, we can safely say this team is good and will be competitive throughout the year. But if we get another shellacking, a 45-17 offensive explosion route, then we can begin to safely talk about this team in the same echelon of the 2015 or 2016 squads as a potentially great Hilltopper club.