WKU Football With a Chance to Right its Recent Wrongs, Win and They're in on Senior Day

FB: From completely controlling their own destiny with margin to needing help before Friday night, the Tops are now back in the driver's seat to make a conference championship game appearance.

and

Nov 30, 2024

Houchens-Smith Stadium — Courtesy: WKU Athletics

Western Kentucky was sitting pretty at 5-0 needing one victory to lock up third place in Conference USA two weeks ago. Then La Tech came to town, shut down the Tops, allowing WKU to score one time all night, and squeaked out of town with a 12-7 victory.

Even after that loss, WKU still sat in control of its destiny, just needing to win its last two, and they still could host. If they didn’t win their last two, they would need help. Well, they didn’t. They lost at Liberty last week, back blasting diarrhea into their compression shorts the likes I haven’t since my daughters blasted half-chewed beans down their leg a few years ago on taco night.

Yeah I know it’s gross. So was the meltdown that has been WKU Football in recent weeks.

I have already taken heat on CUSA for daring suggest that WKU was the clear favorite before Jacksonville State established itself as the best team in Conference USA. Yes, how horrible to speak the truth. Everyone pretty much acknowledged that WKU was the favorite. By every metric (ESPN FPI, eyeball test, head-to-head, etc.), once WKU beat Sam Houston, the Tops were the odds on favorite to win the conference.

Since that moment, WKU has not looked as good, playing well enough to win easily but not impressively at a resurgent Kennesaw State, allowing New Mexico State to run all over the Tops and score the most points against the defense since August, allowing La Tech to run the ball (which they haven’t done all year), and allowing Liberty to do whatever the heck they wanted in the run game last Saturday.

It’s been a clear regression.

Prior to tonight’s result, Towel Rack writer and Pro Tops specialist and one of our main guys that handle live tweeting, Alex Sherfield weighed in with his thoughts on the circumstances heading into this week’s CUSA action:

These last two weeks have been a whirlwind for the Hilltoppers. Saturday has quite a few implications for the Tops to have a chance at the CUSA Title. (Friday,) Sam Houston will be called upon to beat Liberty if we can hold up our end of the deal in beating Jax State.

The Task Before Us

Jacksonville State is a formidable football team, and they won eight games in a row since starting 0-3. I mentioned that WKU was the conference favorite heading in to November. Well, the reason was that Jacksonville State dug itself such a hole in the expectation department, because their defense looked absolutely awful early in the year.

They gave up 55 to Coastal Carolina, 49 to Louisville, and 37 to Eastern Michigan. The Louisville result is one thing, but for perspective, Coastal and EMU are currently desperately seeking bowl eligibility. Giving up that much to those teams was not impressive now, and it was not impressive then.

But does that matter when the first three games are the three highest scores allowed by the defense all year? Since the 0-3 start, Jacksonville State has allowed only two teams to reach the 30s in points, and they have one game all year where their offense has scored in the teens. In every other game, they have scored at least three touchdowns.

What’s fascinating is many would immediately think this team has an elite passer. High flying offense? Must be a pro under center. No. This team has an elite running game, with a quarterback who averages nearly 100 rush yards per game with 13 touchdowns, and a running back (Tre Stewart) who will probably finish the season flirting with a total of 25 touchdowns and is a favorite to reach 1,600 yards rushing.

Quarterback Tyler Huff completes just 61 percent of his passes and is yet to reach 2,000 yards through the air. He’s still competent through the air, but he has thrown for more than 236 yards one time, when he had a 311 yard performance in a loss to Eastern Michigan early in the year.

Defensively, JSU gives up yardage, and they give up touchdowns. They really do. Their defense is pretty average statistically. Even in CUSA play, opponents have scored in the 20s all but twice, and two opponents have scored 30 or more. However, the big strength for JSU is the passing defense. The run defense is extremely average, giving up significant yardage just about every game. What makes it difficult for opponents is trying to pass the ball for elite numbers in order to keep up with JSU’s offense. At just over 200 yards per game allowed, Jacksonville State sits 57th nationally in pass yards allowed per game, which astonishingly sits at 7th in Conference USA. Nonetheless, they are good enough on the back end to prevent huge plays.

Jax State really does a good job intercepting the ball, getting one per game. They also force nearly a fumble per game. The JSU formula is a read-option version of the Bailey Zappe era for WKU, but the JSU defense is a little better down-to-down than WKU’s defense was. JSU is pretty much going to score 30, and the defense just needs to hang on and make a few plays from there.

It’s an interesting formula, but unlike the Zappe year for WKU, when JSU gets a lead of more than a score, good luck coming back. And if they’re behind, they’re so explosive on the ground that they can just keep doing what they do and come back in a hurry despite a running clock after most plays. A good enough kicker and a pretty good punter and a good kickoff game complement an incredibly unique rushing attack. This makes JSU more scary than a team that can pass for 500 yards but can’t run the ball to save their lives.

The formula for beating Jacksonville State goes through slowing down Tre Stewart (and Tyler Huff) on the ground. In the first three games, Tre Stewart didn’t get over 100 yards in any game and didn’t score more than one touchdown. In the subsequent eight games, he had multiple scores in all but two games and had no less than 96 yards in any one game. He’s been incredible once he got in the groove this year.

Keys to Victory

Abandon the Pass Defense & Stop the Run

I don’t even care how much JSU passes for. If they pass for 400 yards, fine. Good for them. But that’s not how they win football games. They win football games ramming it down your throat, and they’ll occasionally bust one through the air. They have one receiver with 500 yards, and only one other with over 200 yards. I’m telling you, if I’m defensive coordinator, it’s assignment football, and it’s having my DBs watch the backfield to help with the run. Given that teams have learned to stretch you out on the perimeter and clear out your DBs with fake dummy routes, I don’t even care if JSU busts a long pass play. I don’t even care. What can’t happen is 400 yards rushing. What shouldn’t happen is 300 yards rushing. What should be the standard against a good running team is still under 200 yards rushing. Given the Tops’ absolute inability to stop the run, stay under 300 yards rushing and you’ve a chance

…if…

The Offense Plays Well and Doesn’t Screw Itself

If this happens, I like WKU’s chances to hang with Jacksonville State. Frankly, if the offense stays on the field some, maybe the defense won’t be so worn down at the end of the game. Just sayin’. Here’s the thing: WKU should have beaten Liberty. Easton Messer was loose multiple times. Bryce Childress was loose once, and Caden Veltkamp didn’t give either of them a chance.

WKU turned the ball over three times, two of which were just really ding-dong decisions by the QB. You just can’t do that. Another was a receiver catching the ball in traffic, and yes, he should have protected the ball. But that was more of a routine “bravo, defense” type of play than just something to do with poor fundamentals (other than not carrying the ball “high and tight”.

If WKU can play well offensively, the chance will be there. Against La Tech, there’s no question mistakes cost them there, too.

Also, I will add in to the “don’t screw yourself column” this fine analytical anecdote:

Kick the damn ball.

If I have to pull my hair out one more time about just kicking a stupid field goal on fourth down…

a) I’ll start showing a bald spot and b) It’s 35 degrees out and I have no business having freezing air whistling through my luscious locks.

Twice now, WKU has neglected field goals that directly cost them the game on the scoreboard. To quickly rehash, WKU lost to Boston College 21-20 and neglected to take a 3-0 lead when they had the ball just inside the red zone on 4th-and-1. Then, WKU was struggling to score and neglected to kick a field goal on 4th-and-1 once against La Tech. The Tops would have taken the lead once again, and this time, WKU was in field goal range but needed five points (because of neglecting the field goal in a game with a total of five scores) and couldn’t kick the makeable field goal to win the game, because it would have been useless without the other neglected field goal. Instead, they were forced to go for it on 4th-and-15 and didn’t make it.

Just…please, guys. I will not be pissed if we lose and JSU was just better. But if we look back and say, “I swear if we would’ve just not _____!” “If we would’ve just ______!” “It was right there but _____!” “Why didn’t we show up today?”, I assure you that Hilltopper fans will turn sour so quickly that you’ll wonder if the Big Red apple was Granny Smith the whole time. Western fans are, for the most part, highly intelligent fans that know their stuff. They’ll appreciate good football, and if the Tops truly get beat, you know what? Good for you, JSU. But if we look back and can point to why WKU lost and it’s something WKU did to itself, it will not be a pretty postgame conversation amongst fans during the first half of the basketball game Saturday night as we play a Diddle-wide therapy session via the game “Telephone”.

Personally, I think WKU has messed around and gotten itself in bad shape, and there’s too much to fix. Plus, JSU’s strengths minimize WKU’s strengths, and WKU’s weaknesses will probably allow JSU to flourish. I see this as a really bad, scary matchup for WKU, and the offense is going to have to be its sharpest since putting up 631 yards on MTSU.

I just don’t see it, unfortunately. And I’m not sure it will be that close at the end. I hope I’m wrong, Tops. Prove me wrong, and then let’s go get a ring next week. Take care of business! But for the sake of honesty for now…

I’ll go Jacksonville State 38-Western Kentucky 24.

Alex Sherfield’s Prediction

Editor’s note: I didn’t want to end the article with a bummer, so let’s give Alex the spotlight, as he (spoiler alert) picks the Tops to win in a thriller.

The bread and butter for the Gamecocks is their running game. After giving up over 100 yards from two different halfbacks last week against Liberty, there has to be a main focus on not letting that happen twice. Simply put, you’ll have to force Jax State to throw the ball if you can set the tone in stopping the run early. I also have belief that our running offense can pose a challenge to Jax State’s defense. As much as their defense has been effective in not letting halfbacks get longer runs, they’ve struggled at causing any yard losses during opponents’ carries. It’s going to be a showdown on Senior Day. Thankfully, home field advantage will be into play for the Tops. Let’s finish strong and prepare for bowling season. Give me WKU 30, Jax State 26.

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