WKU Football: WKU vs. Charlotte Statistical Preview
In this week’s version of Matt’s Stats, we try to use statistics to predict WKU football’s Homecoming game against the Charlotte 49ers.
In this week’s version of Matt’s Stats, we try to use statistics to predict WKU football’s Homecoming game against the Charlotte 49ers.
In general
WKU is now officially the least efficient running offense in all of the FBS, averaging 2.3 yards per rush. WKU has also given up 16 sacks in five games. Translation: Offensive line issues.
Defensively, WKU continues to be impressive, never having allowed more than 23 in any game this year and are surrendering an average of 19 points per game. WKU’s special teams have been slightly above average this year.
The Charlotte 49ers are a team without a win, so we’re going to ignore the record and look at their flaws and merits. They only score 12.8 points per game, so they do struggle at times to score.
However, they run the ball very well and have multiple threats in the running game. In the passing game, Charlotte has struggled, throwing multiple interceptions for touchdowns on the year. Defensively, they are decent. When you account for nearly a pick-six a game, they give up well under 30 points a game defensively. They also allow 426 yards per game.
Translation: They have a chance every time they play. On special teams, they have been no better than average in any area.
Stats to Watch For
Running Games
When you look at this matchup, this particular area is obviously important. WKU is the worst in the country. Can they get it together and be remotely effective?
Frankly, if they can be close to average, it changes everything about this WKU team. It opens up the passing game, helps the defense and makes defenses play them more honestly.
Charlotte is not a very good team with very few positives, but they have an extremely dangerous running game. If Charlotte sees serious success running the ball, this game is close. On the other side of the ball, their run defense is porous. Is this WKU’s chance to get the running game on track?
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Overall Quarterback Play
This is a very interesting quarterback matchup. WKU’s Mike White is clearly the better passer, completing 66% of his passes and throwing for 250 yards per game. He’s also been shockingly mobile, scoring four touchdowns on the ground.
Charlotte’s Hasaan Klugh is a speed demon. He is very effective in the run game, and can outrun anyone in the country in the open field. Through the air, he completes nearly half of his passes. The main item of note is his ten interceptions on the season and his tendency to make some silly decisions.
White should be the better quarterback, but if Klugh can wreak havoc with his legs and not turn it over in the air, he could keep his team in the game or even win it if given the opportunity. Charlotte has been within two touchdowns in half of their games and, despite averaging 12.8 points, have scored 30 or more twice this season.
Special Teams/Turnovers
Looking at these two teams’ DNA and history, special teams and turnovers are going to play a factor. WKU is above average on special teams; they have an excellent punter in Jake Collins, and have an excellent kickoff returner in Kylen Towner, who provides WKU with an average starting field position beyond the 34 yard line on kickoffs, which is incredible. Field goal kicking and punt returning have been average so far.
Charlotte’s specials teams unit is below average; they feature terrible field goal kicking, good punting, decent returns and below average kickoff specialist.
In terms of turnovers, WKU has not turned the ball over, but they have not forced very many, either. What turnovers the Toppers have committed have been crucial mistakes.
Charlotte has thrown ten interceptions in six games and several have gone all the way back for touchdowns. They have also lost three more fumbles.
Basically, something’s gotta give.
If WKU wants to win, they better dominate these two areas. WKU doesn’t beat itself, while Charlotte finds ways to shoot itself in the foot. There is nothing more important in the game than taking care of the football, and putting yourself in position to be successful. If there is a reversal in the trends for either team, WKU could be in real trouble.
Third Down Conversions
WKU does a good job on third down, converting 43% of the time. Defensively, the Toppers are allowing opponents to convert on 44% on third downs.
Charlotte is absolutely horrible, converting less than 30% of their offensive attempts while opponents are converting nearly 50% of the time.
Defensively, both teams operate with a “bend but don’t break” mentality. Hence, they force opponents into third downs, but the opponent generally finds a way to get a first down half of the time.
Whichever team can get off the field on third down is going to win this game.
Prediction
WKU football has created doubt for its followers. The offense is just not as good as in years past and they nearly lost to a team with zero wins last week, netiher of which has settled the early-season concerns.
This is Homecoming week, and despite it all, they have a chance to really start putting themselves in the thick of the race in the East with a win this week.
Charlotte is searching for answers, but they have been close in some games against decent football teams. Looking at the numbers and talent, Charlotte is not only better than UTEP, but is also more dangerous. They have a better defense and a functional quarterback with the ability to dominate the running game. They also have some momentum, nearly beating FIU two weeks ago, and staying within 11 points of Marshall, a team that looks like the front runner for the East Division at this point.
I believe WKU should get it together and find a way to win at home. However, I’m done predicting tons of points, and I’m done predicting blowouts. I will not expect excellent offense until I see it. On a personal note, I believe WKU is a running game away from being a good football team. Let’s see it, Tops.
Ta’Corian Darden seals the victory with a pick-six in the fourth quarter.
WKU 27-Charlotte 13
For our full staff predictions, click here.