WKU Football: Gameday Information, Keys to Victory and Predictions for Week 9 vs. Liberty
LIBERTY LIBERTY LIIIIIIBERTY. LIIIIIIIBERTY.
For a second-straight year, Western Kentucky is 4-3 with an October conference loss in it’s back pocket, and things are feeling - for lack of a better term - dire. But, the season isn’t over yet, and WKU has a chance to reclaim their destiny when it comes to the CUSA title game with a win Tuesday against the Liberty Flames.
Game Day Information
Game Date: Thursday, October 24, 2023
Time: 6:30 PM CT
Location: L.T. Smith Stadium | Bowling Green, Ky.
TV Channel: ESPNU
Betting line: Liberty -, O/U 60.5
This is it. The big one. The one both WKU and Liberty fans have had circled ever since the schedule was released. Liberty has lived up, maybe even exceeded, their billing for 2023 while the Hilltoppers have fallen short of expectations through the first two months of the season.
But, a win on Tuesday, and things will start feeling a lot lighter in Bowling Green.
Keys To Victory - by Matt McCay
WKU is kind of reeling. Well, not kind of. Offensively, what in the heck is going on in the second half lately? Really all season. It’s hard to know when WKU is going to play lights out, and when they will completely turn off the circuit breakers and sit in darkness and hope the opponent trips over the end table.
Enough of this sitting around and waiting. It’s time to upturn some tables and go to war. It’s go time, and it’s time for WKU step it up five notches and act like a conference champion immediately, or they will not even find themselves in the hunt at the end of a season they were supposed to be the prohibitive favorite.
So what does WKU need to do get it done in The Houch Tuesday?
Get Fired Up and Stay Fired Up
WKU Athletics, to their immense credit, has pulled out all of the stops to try to attract a crowd to this game. Helmet stickers, promos from popular former players, $5 tickets, and a pregame concert all come together to make what is hopefully a decent crowd for WKU. My gut says Liberty brings a crowd, as well, so there will be energy in the stands one way or another. Regardless of the energy of the crowd, let’s see WKU come out ready to KILL Liberty. I mean not messing around, let’s see some bleep-talkin’, trashy behavior (within the whistles, or at least barely after). Be nasty. Show us you want it. And once you do that, maintain it!!! This is going to be a war, and whoever takes the least amount of plays off from being intensely focused wins this game. We know WKU is probably the more talented team individually. Show it.
Utilize the Ancillaries
In insurance, your ancillaries would be like your accident policy, your dental and vision, your whatever. Well, with WKU’s offense, the main portion you think about is the quarterback and the receivers. That drives the bus, right? Well, guess what? WKU has some ability in the backfield, although sometimes they do not show particular explosiveness. WKU has had River Helms and others show up and be available. I’m not saying to emphasize these guys, but against a good defense, you need to keep them honest, and you need to exploit the middle of the field. Tight ends and running backs can foil an entire defense’s plans if they are producing when called upon. You don’t need 300 yards from these two position groups, but you sure could use 150 or more.
Energy on the Sideline
This seems rudimentary, but this team has had questionable intensity throughout the season. There’s no other way to paint the picture. Sometimes they lose focus. One way, especially at home, but really anywhere, to keep guys going is to have energy on the sideline. I know this may not seem like much, but a dead sideline is a semi-dead in the water football team. There is nothing like feeding off of energy from your teammates, so when the team gets fired up, the fire can spread quickly. If the WKU sideline just kind of sits there and stares at each other while Liberty is up making noise, dancing, and talking, all that does is tell Liberty that the Tops are going to lay down and play dead and hope they can hold on. That kind of swell of momentum could be devastating to the opposition.
Assignment Football
Kaidon Salter is a certifiable stud, and he is being added to the awards lists as he continues to lead his team under center. Second on the team with 71 yards per game rushing, Salter also has a better than 5-to-1 ratio on his touchdowns to interceptions. He is a little inaccurate at times, throwing under 60%. However, he has a strong enough arm to make whatever throw is needed. We know WKU is probably going to struggle to stop Liberty at times. Here is what WKU cannot do: Allow Liberty to just get loose and run all over the field. If WKU is in position to make plays and Liberty gets a first down, so be it. WKU needs to make life hard, be fundamentally sound, and avoid huge negative plays. If they can do that, barring offensive disaster, the Tops should be right in it defensively.
Pepper Salter
WKU’s defensive line (in combination with slick coaches and coordinators) has done a great job creating pressure on opposing linemen and quarterbacks. While maintaining defensive integrity, WKU needs to be all over Salter and force him to be uncomfortable when he’s in the pocket, and when he’s out of it, the Tops must be able to contain him and keep him from turning a corner and blowing up the field for 30 or 40 yards. Salter throws for over 200 yards per game, so respect the man and understand that he is perfectly capable of putting on a show.
Predictions
Fletcher Keel (5-2)
Before my prediction, a bit of an editorial note: I’d like to apologize for a lack of content last week. Between an illness and some apathy setting in with the grind of the season (as you’ll see played out in our predictions this week), we were a bit out of sorts last week, and the midweek game didn’t help things.
We’re working to get things rolling again. Your patience and gratitude is very appreciated.
Alright, to my prediction: I’m at the point in the season where I don’t trust the Hilltoppers right now. I think they’re a fine football team. A good football team, even. But they’re not meeting the expectations that were set out before the season, and we’ve seen a big enough sample size that warrants an adjustment.
As I noted in the Q&A we did with our pals over at A Sea of Red, the Tops and Flames enter Tuesday night on opposite trajectories: The Hilltoppers are struggling to close out games, having scored just eight second-half points over their last three outings, while the Flames seem to be at their strongest when the game needs closing out (take a look back at their games against Sam Houston State and MTSU for examples).
Unless something changes in the structure of playcalling, I’m expecting more of the same. I think the Tops can get off to a hot and fast start, but I have my doubts that they’ll be either to sustain it or completely fend off an eventual Liberty comeback.
That all being said, I think we’re going to see a familiar pattern: A competent team look completely lost and stuck in the mud in the second half.
I gave myself a loss for last week, even though I didn’t publish a prediction, because I thought no way in the world the Tops would lose to Jax State. This week, I’m taking the Flames, 38-17, to take firm control of the CUSA title game hosting race.
Matt McCay (6-1)
This is the biggest game at the Houch, in my opinion, since the 2016 CUSA Championship Game, when WKU repeated as conference champions. Name another more significant football game since that time at home this late in the season. I don’t think there’s been a bigger moment. Hopefully, people realize how big of a moment this is, ignore the annoyance that WKU lost this last week in a big game, and realize that a W puts WKU in position to host another title game game.
Liberty sits nearly ranked, getting votes in both major polls, and is one of the nine remaining unbeaten teams in all of the FBS.
That being said…ugh. I just think WKU has dug itself into such a hole that the Tops are going to have to play great and get lucky to win. I think Liberty is too solid, they’re well-coached, and they’re hungry. I also think WKU will find a quarter and a half or two to take a nap, and then will try to win only showing up for half of the game. That’s not a winning formula, and the fact that WKU is 4-3 playing that way is astounding.
Western is yet to put together an A+ game from start to finish. That’s what WKU will need to beat Liberty, or close to it. Liberty has not played its best lately, either, but I expect both teams to come out and step up and make this a great game. I think WKU’s offensive woes slow down, but I also don’t think WKU’s defense can slow down Kaidon Salter’s versatility as the signal caller. Unfortunately, I’ve got Liberty 41-Western Kentucky 31.
Devin Stewart (5-1)
I love WKU, I’ve lived in the area for most of my life. I graduated from WKU. Hell, I’ve got a podcast that talks bout WKU. But Tuesday night, it’s gonna be Liberty.
WKU’s inconsistence doesn’t produce the confidence needed for me to say WKU could undoubtedly beat the Flames. So regrettably, gimme Liberty.
41-28, Liberty
Alex Sherfield (5-1)
Tonight’s game at The Houch has a lot of postseason implications between the Tops & the Flames. Liberty is the lone team who has yet to lose a single game in CUSA play.
Even with WKU’s current record of the season, this game has been circled on the calendar for quite a while. Barring last week’s lost to Jacksonville State, this is the perfect opportunity for a much needed confidence boost going into the next few weeks.
They have some impact players that are a direct reflection of their current success.
Halfback Quinton Cooley is the league’s top rusher, with 726 yards, averaging 6.0 per carry. Quarterback Kaidon Salter is one of Group of Five’s most versatile players (also averaging 5.8 yards per QB runs) and will not pose any easy tasks for the Tops defense. Both players are crucial to the Flames offense, who leads the CUSA in a few categories.
Defensively, Brylan Green is the biggest threat for the Topper pass offense. He leads CUSA in interceptions, leaving Austin Reed to have to make some cautious plays spreading the ball around as Green will definitely be called upon to stifle the Tops receivers.
It’s a very dangerous matchup with a few rays of hope for WKU. The Tops have yet to lose at home so depending on how the home crowd shows up, it would be a good boost to get things going early. The defense HAS to do better with protecting any lead that WKU has in order to stay with the Flames. I feel like this can go either way but home field advantage rules all.
Give me WKU 34, Liberty 30