WKU Football: What Went Right and What Went Wrong In Western Kentucky's 42-29 Loss vs. Liberty
A season that felt so promising all summer has all but crashed and burned after another un-spirited 60 minutes.
Western Kentucky started hot, couldn’t maintain momentum, held their opponent off for as long as they could but - without scoring points at meaningful times in the second half - couldn’t hold them forever as the Hilltoppers (4-4, 2-2 CUSA) fell to the Liberty Flames (8-0, 6-0 CUSA) in the first meeting between the two schools as conference foes Tuesday night.
I like to fancy myself something of a WKU optimist, but there’s even I’ll admit there’s little - if anything - to be optimistic about after this performance. In a season that was “CUSA Title Game or Bust", the Hilltoppers are on the brink of bust before the month of October ends.
Big Picture - by Fletcher Keel
There are still four games left in the 2023 campaign for Western Kentucky, almost all of which the Hilltoppers will be heavy favorites in (ESPN’s FPI has the Tops as, at worst, 72% favorites in all of them). Win out, and the Tops will get another crack at the Flames, this time in Lynchburg, for a CUSA title.
Drop one of them and the season, truly and rightfully, comes to a screeching halt in a way almost unimaginable two and a half months ago.
Forget the continued struggles on offense in the second half, or on defense to stop the run - both of which were very present in Tuesday’s defeat. The game was lost in the most baffling sequence I’ve seen with Helton patrolling the sideline for the Tops.
Having just allowed a 43-yard touchdown pass on a busted defensive play, the Tops (rather methodically) moved down the field, covering 57 yards on 11 plays, but stalling out on the edge of the red zone (thanks in no small part to an illegal formation penalty that moved the Tops from the Liberty 18 to the 23).
After having taken two previous shots at the end zone after getting inside the red zone, including a near touchdown pass on second and 13, the Tops decided to run a RB dive on third and 13.
Then, instead of taking another shot at the end zone - or, heck, even the sticks considering it wasn’t a goal-to-go situation - Helton calls off the dogs and brought out the field goal unit.
Lucas Carneiro subsequently missed his first FG attempt of the season, a 36-yarder that he couldn’t curl around the upright in time.
It was a sequence that left me befuddled for the rest of the half, and signaled to me the Hilltoppers were not prepared to have a game plan that was set to truly match the Flames step for step. It felt like Helton tucked his tail between his legs and wanted to tread water, play it almost too safe, instead of show your dominance at home and prove you deserve to be in the same conversation as the now-conference favorites.
The same guy who went for it on fourth down, repeatedly, in minus territory at Ohio State a month ago lost any and all confidence in his preseason All-Conference offense, and the Hilltoppers paid dearly.
This is not the article that’s going to call for a coaching change. I don’t know if that will ever come, at least this season. But it’s very clear something - from the play calling to the attitude to the culture - is not right at the moment, and the Tops are having a hard time responding after being punched in the mouth.
What Went Right - by Alex Sherfield
It was another strong start to the game for the Hilltoppers, who opened the game with a methodical 13-play, 75-yard touchdown drive, ending with an Austin Reed touchdown pass to Malachi Corley.
From there, the Tops sputtered a bit, settling for a Lucas Carneiro field goal two drives later to go up 10-7, a lead WKU would later relinquish and never reclaim.
For all of the bellyaching over the offense over the last few weeks, one bright spot in the loss was the production of Reed, who threw for a season-best 365 yards and four touchdowns (matched only by his Houston Baptist performance) and an interception that was awkwardly thrown into double coverage in the end zone, trying to find Craig Burt Jr. in the final minute of the first half.
Reed completed 40 of his 44 pass attempts.
Corley added two touchdowns after getting six receptions for 62 yards, though he was out caught by Dalvin Smith, who led all receivers with eight catches for 79 yards (but didn’t find paydirt).
River Helms was as much a factor has he’s been all year, hauling a 63-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter, bringing the Tops to within 35-22 deficit.
The Hilltopper running game was actually somewhat effective Tuesday night, with Elijah Young and Markese Stepp more than passing the eye test.
Young was instrumental in both the rushing and passing games, leading all WKU rushers with 61 yards on eight carries and added four receptions for 58 yards.
What Went Wrong - by Devin Stewart
Black uniforms are a team’s kryptonite. Refs hate black uniforms. Even NPR did a study showing how much Refs call against teams who wear black uniforms. SO THROW THOSE AWAY AND NEVER THINK OF WEARING THEM AGAIN!!!
Seriously, WKU had 57 yards worth of penalties at the worst possible times. It usually ended up being when Liberty was close to the first down or near the end zone. The Tops also had a major call picked up against Liberty. River Helms will need a new shirt due to the amount of holding going on.
The Hilltoppers failed to stop the run in the second half. Whether due to the RPO or Liberty’s QB, Salter, tucking and running himself. Salter had over 100 yards in the game. By himself, Salter generated 286 total yards of offense on the ground and in the air.
To win CUSA, WKU can not allow that kind of hat trick to happen.
WKU didn’t take care of the ball: The Tops had a fumble and interception that caused havoc for an offense needing to gain some rhythm as well as a defense that needed a breather. Liberty never had that issue. The Flames had no interceptions or fumbles, disappointingly. The “Take Away Tops” failed to take anything except crap from Liberty.
Essentially, WKU needs to call in a Voodoo priest, exorcist, or some sorority chick (ed. note - guys can be into astrology, too. Signed, a Very Aquarius Person) who is “ really into astrology stuff”: The failure to complete a full game of offense is completely inexcusable by this point in the season.
The Hilltoppers scored three points from 12:49 to go in the first half and they didn’t score again until 11:24 to go in the fourth quarter. That’s way to much game time for some form of points to not be on the board. Western needs some ball movement and consistency throughout the entire game, especially with being on the back half of the season. By not scoring, the Tops allowed Liberty to take control and lead their own destiny. With any team that’s undefeated (Liberty is now 8-0 and will almost assuredly be ranked next week) you have to stay in the game. Punch for punch or score for score, the Hilltoppers failed to continue the momentum that was lost after the missed field goal.
WKU failed to make tackles. There were several instances of Hilltoppers making initial hits behind the line of scrimmage (TFL) and the ball carrier would simply slip, bounce or whatever verb you want to insert away and gain several yards. If the Hilltoppers make those tackles for a loss, Western makes some key stops and this is a different ball game.
A favorite phrase on The RedOUT Podcast is, “WKU peed down their legs.” Liberty held onto the ball, they bled the clock in the second half by only making three passes, the flames offense functioned, Liberty made smarter decisions and had less penalties. They wore white uniforms (opposite of black which draws more penalties) and capitalized on WKU’s mistakes. What more could you want?
Red Threads - by Fletcher Keel
Some final stray thoughts on Tuesday’s loss.
Full disclosure: I went to bed at halftime and don’t have it in me to watch the second half, at least before we publish this recap. So Red Threads is going to be very short - maybe I’ll do a continuation on our Twitter page this week when/if I get around to it.
For anyone looking at the standings and are curious as to how the Hilltoppers control their own destiny:
Jax State (4-1 CUSA) is ineligible to play for a conference title, since they’re a reclassifying program. Same issue JMU has had in the Sun Belt, though less high profile
NM State (4-1 CUSA) is still yet to play the Hilltoppers. WKU winning out would include a win over the Aggies, which the Hilltoppers have a 72% chance to do, according to FPI.
Alex mentioned it but I’d like to reiterate: The WKU running game was close to legit. Actually, I would like to amend that: They were legit, totaling 119 yards with Elijah Young leading the way. He looked good, but I’m tired of the continued revolving door in the backfield. Young was the first drive’s MVP, yet wasn’t out there to start the second drive. Keep the hot hand in!
I think a lot of that rushing success was due to Liberty only having a three-man front, in an attempt to try and quiet Reed and the Tops’ passing attack. But, I’ll take what I can get, especially in a year where successful rush attempts have been so hard to come by.
I don’t know as of publication if this changed in the second half, but WKU did not want to throw the ball deep. I can remember maybe three pass attempts that went for 15 or more yards in the opening two quarters, and it’s something that’s kind of driven me crazy all year. We know Corley has YAC King capabilities, but surely this WR corps has guys who can get down field and win contested 1-on-1s too, no?
The ESPNU broadcast had a lot of fun with the Big Red helmets, even using the position logos in their graphics package.
Speaking of the ESPNU broadcast, it was much, much better than last week. Almost solely for the fact that Derek Mason wasn’t on the call. It was actually listenable and only a handful of minor on-screen glitches. It’s off to ESPN+ next week against UTEP.
Looking ahead: Here’s who the Tops’ final four opponents have this week
UTEP - at Sam Houston State (Wednesday)
NM State - defeated Louisiana Tech, 27-24, Tuesday; vs. MTSU (11/4)
Sam Houston State vs. UTEP (Wednesday)
FIU - vs. Jax State (Wednesday)