WKU Football: Gameday Information, Keys to Victory and Predictions for Week 6 at Louisiana Tech
For the first time since 2018, the Hilltoppers and Bulldogs will do battle, with the programs having gone on opposite trajectories since their last meeting.
The Conference USA, and mid-season, portion of Western Kentucky’s schedule rolls along Thursday night, as the Tops make their first conference road trip of the year to take on Louisiana Tech.
Game Day Information
Game Date: Thursday, October 5, 2023
Time: 7 PM CT
Location: L.T. Smith Stadium | Bowling Green, Ky.
TV Channel: ESPN
Betting line: WKU -6.5, O/U 59.5
It’s hard to believe, but Thursday night will mark the first time since 2018 the two programs have met.
The last meeting - the season finale in the 2018 season - was the last game WKU played without Tyson Helton patrolling the sideline. Since then, the Tops have nine games in every non-pandemic year, bowl victories in each of those years as well, and a CUSA Championship Game appearance.
Tech, on the other hand, fell on hard times: They went 10-3 the following year, but didn’t play in the title game (that distinction belonged to UAB, though they shared co-division champion status) and won the Independence Bowl.
After a five-win 2020, the Bulldogs won three games in each of their next two seasons, and have already reached that threshold through six games this year. It’s also year two under Sonny Cumbie, just the program’s third head coach since 2010.
And, surprise! Last night’s MLB playoff results means ESPN all of a sudden has time to fill, so WKU gets bumped from ESPNU to the big four-letter.
Before we get to our staff predictions, lets run down what the Tops need to focus on above all else in order to head into the bye week with an unblemished CUSA mark?
Keys to Victory - by Matt McCay
This week, the Tops hit the road at a place that is always tough to play. WKU is 3-1 all-time at home against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, but is 1-4 away from Houchens Industries Stadium.
La Tech has been considered somewhat of a dark horse type of candidate in Conference USA this season, while WKU has been considered essentially a co-favorite with Liberty. Both teams have proven their quality in different ways. WKU has somewhat underachieved, been littered with injuries on both sides of the ball, yet still sits with a 3-2 overall record and a quality win against MTSU in the conference opener Thursday. La Tech beat an FIU team that seems competent and also beat UTEP on the road. The only “whoops” kind of misstep for La Tech was a three point loss at home to North Texas.
However, both teams should walk in feeling confident that they can hold their own, while they also should be humbled enough to know that they’re going to need to play well. There are some injuries and suspensions on both sides, so somebody is going to have to gut out a tough win, regardless of who is available.
So what are the Keys to Get it Done in Ruston?
Get Up and Go
Regardless of the injuries, regardless of the opponent (who WKU has not played in five years) regardless of whatever else, it’s time to show up and be great. WKU showed an ability to score and an ability to play defense against MTSU. They showed an ability to to get out to a good start, as well. WKU’s number one issue seems to have been focus. Is that issue over, or will it rear its ugly head?
Don’t Get Smoked
Smoke Harris is an absolute animal of a wide receiver. Easily one of the most explosive returning players in college football, and is only 5’7” but he has the ability to singlehandedly win the game for his team. With possible injuries on the defense, it will be key to withhold Harris and his capable teammates below their capabilities.
Let the Red Zone be Topper Red
WKU is one of the few teams in the country that is yet to fail to convert a single red zone opportunity. The Tops have scored touchdowns on 13-of-17 opportunities. Meanwhile, La Tech’s offense has only converted 10-of-17 opportunities into TDs. It’s early, but in general, La Tech has not converted on its opportunities. However, the defense has also held its own, forcing the opponent into a field goal fairly often. Both defenses do a good job keeping offenses off of the scoreboard. Both defenses emphasize third down and the red zone as their main areas of focus. In what could be a close battle, forcing La Tech to earn everything they get will be incredibly crucial.
Run the Football
La Tech’s defense allows more running yards than passing yards thus far on the season. Now could some of that be dealing with the style of play of opponents?
Absolutely.
FIU had four yards passing to open the season and nearly won. However, the fact that La Tech only gives up 150 yards per game through the air is remarkable. They are sixth in the nation stopping the pass. HELLO!
However, La Tech is 129th in rushing defense. Catch my drift here? If La Tech just locks down the air attack, they’re probably leaving opportunity on the ground. WKU too often abandons the run, and this is not the game to do that. If the Tops are having trouble passing, run the ball. There are plenty of capable, trustworthy backs.
Handle the Middle 30 Minutes
This might strike you as odd, but one thing I noticed when combing through some stats was the huge disparity between WKU and its opponents in the second quarter. Obviously giving up 35 to Ohio State didn’t help those numbers, but think about it! WKU’s struggles have been in the second quarter and coming out from break in the third quarter. Ohio State, Houston Christian, Troy and MTSU are all good examples (some better than others) where WKU lulled in the middle of the game. WKU must be more consistent throughout, or it will burn them in this game or another one or two in CUSA play.
The Towel Rack Staff Predictions
Fletcher Keel (4-1)
Aside from beating Middle Tennessee, which is always a positive, there’s a lot to have liked out of the Tops’ win last week. Austin Reed flirted with 300 yards passing, the run game almost got going (even if it was when the game was essentially decided) and the defense - especially the rushing defense - feels like it’s on the verge of truly having arrived.
However, there are still things I’d like to see out of the Tops on offense: Primarily, taking more deep shots. The emergence of guys like Easton Messer and K.D. Hutchinson have been nice early season surprises, but we need to see another eight-plus catch day from Malachi Corley and, maybe most importantly, open up the playbook a bit.
Throw the ball downfield, run a flea flicker or triple reverse, something more than a first or second down rush and some five-yard or less dinks and dunks.
While I think WKU will win regardless of who is under center, who will serve as La Tech’s quarterback is still up in the air: Hank Bachmeier is still battling a shoulder injury and his status is unknown. If he’s a no-go, Jack Turner will get the call, who actually averages more passing yards per attempt than Bachmeier does in 26 fewer pass attempts.
I can only imagine Upton Stout will line up opposite Smoke Harris, which will be the matchup of the day. Far and away Tech’s top receiving target, can the Tops bottle him up and continue to build on last week’s stellar rush defense.
Will we get full answers to all of those questions? That I can’t say. But until I see the Tops rattled enough to truly worry in conference play to a non-Liberty (who look scarier and scarier each week), I’m gonna roll on the Topper train.
Tops will move to 2-0 in CUSA play with a 29-13 win.
Jared Rosdeutscher (5-0)
Tops finally got back in the win column last week with a CUSA win against the Blue Raiders.
These games against La Tech always have a little chippy-ness to them, too, and I expect nothing less in this matchup as well. I know one of Tech’s best defensive lineman is still suspended which should help WKU but I see this being a pretty close game throughout but the Tops being able to squeeze out a win on the road, 35-33.
Matt McCay (5-0)
A dangerous team with weapons, La Tech could easily beat WKU. Given that WKU probably has multiple starters injured on defense, the Bulldogs could easily run roughshod over WKU. With a running game that produces 150 yards on the ground, in theory, the Tops could be susceptible in all areas Thursday.
With all of that said, I think WKU’s defense turned a corner as a group. Bryson Washington could be the find of the year. If he could be as solid as he was (let alone the turnovers), he’s immediately one of the most important improvements on the defense. Notice WKU’s linebackers had a great game, and so did the defense. That’s what a defense needs more than great DBs or a great D-Line. They need a solid core in the middle, and everything else is assisted by those several players doing a good job.
I like WKU no matter how you slice it here. If it’s a shootout, does the team that is inconsistent in the passing game win, or is the guy who led the country in passing last season? If it’s a battle in the trenches, how does La Tech’s defensive line get to Austin Reed when he’s only been sacked three times all season? If it comes down to turnovers, don’t you have to like WKU in a game like that, too? I think WKU is coming together as a team, and I’m still thinking more and more people are coming back from early season injuries. Give me WKU 38-La Tech 23.
Devin Stewart (4-1)
This is a hard game to try and predict as neither has had an amazing outing, and they’ve beaten teams they should’ve beat. They’ve also lost games that would’ve helped their resumé so I’m gonna side with Vegas partially (Vegas is giving Tops 6 points) and take the under.
WKU over La Tech 31-28
Josh Owens (4-1)
The Tops feel like they haven't had a complete game where everything just feels right. I'm not sure if this will be the week for that. WKU enters Thursday as 6.5 point favorites, which I feel is appropriate. Smoke Harris is a name to keep a look out for he is La Tech best player and could give WKU fits. WKU should however pull through and win behind a solid Austin Reed performance.
WKU 31, La Tech 21
Alex Sherfield (4-1)
After taking care of business against MTSU, a road trip to Ruston now looms for the Hilltoppers. If anything truly goes in CUSA play, this can become a trap game as the Tops are still waiting for a road win.
The Bulldogs are averaging at least 27 points per game, so WKU’s defense will be depended on to anchor them. However, Tech does get off to fast starts, with the Bulldogs having held first-quarter leads in eight of their last 10 CUSA games.
Western will not only have to move the needle but not allow any early chances for La Tech or it will be very costly.
Also, the running game for the Bulldogs is pretty solid. Tyre Shelton & Keith Willis Jr. have combined for over 550 yards & six touchdowns. Tops will have their hands full as they create ways to slow down a top-five rushing unit in CUSA play.
It won’t be easy but I believe the Tops can escape Ruston in a wild one.
Give me WKU 31, Louisiana Tech 20
Jacob Gary (2-0; only predictions for HCU, MT)
I know I predicted WKU to win by 21 points, but I think La Tech jumps out to a lead early this game before the Hilltoppers come roaring back.
In the comeback effort, Western’s defense will look just as good as last week and the offense will move the ball. Reed will look good as he throws three touchdowns and zero interceptions.
But who knows. It could be a much closer game. WKU always seems to have a dog fight with the Bulldogs.
WKU 35, La Tech 17