WKU Football: What Went Right and What Went Wrong in WKU’s 38-29 Loss to New Mexico St.

WKU’s title hopes are dashed at home for a second-straight year and the offense continues to not look quite right.

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Nov 12, 2023

For all intents and purposes, the football season came to an end for Western Kentucky on Saturday night, with a 38-29 loss at the hands of New Mexico State, who punched their ticket to the CUSA title game in their first season in the conference.

They’ll take on another conference newbie, Liberty, while the Hilltoppers have two remaining chances to get bowl eligible and have a lot of introspection to do to see how a year that seemed to have so much promise came crashing down in such a way.

Big Picture - by Fletcher Keel

The 2023 Western Kentucky football season has been an abject failure. There’s no other way to put it.

Picked as the consensus preseason favorites, the Hilltoppers sit at 5-5 with two games left in the year - not even bowl eligible yet - and will be the first team to not play in the CUSA title game after being picked preseason favorites since 2021, when both Marshall and UAB missed out after being picked to win the then-East and West divisions, respectfully.

(Ironically enough, that year was the last one the Tops did participate in the CUSA title game.)

No matter what happens over the next (hopefully) three games, 2023 will mark the fewest wins in a non-pandemic year for Tyson Helton as WKU head coach.

The offense hasn’t looked right in weeks, Austin Reed doesn’t look sharp or confident, Malachi Corley isn’t the focal point in a way that was expected…I could go on. But I wouldn’t be telling you anything that you don’t already know.

I don’t know if there’s more to say about the big picture for WKU other than that - a season that had so much promise at the outset has unofficially ended in flames. There’s hope that there can be three more games left, which is something to look forward to I guess? But compared to the season we thought we’d be talking about four months ago, it’s of little consolation.

What Went Right - by Alex Sherfield

It’s safe to say that Elijah Young has emerged as the premier halfback for the Tops. His 16 carries for 80 yards made for another solid game as his hot streak continues from a career night last weekend at UTEP. He also led the team in receiving yards, even though Malachi Corley totaled 78 yards for six catches and a late fourth-quarter touchdown reception.

Defensively, not a single sack was recorded (on both teams, pretty rare in some cases). The Tops’ defense did their fair share of blitzing Diego Pavia and NMSU’s offense, totaling five tackles for loss as a whole unit.

I definitely want to give some props to the Tops offensive line: They didn’t allow a single sack from the Aggies’ defense, mostly doing a productive job of protecting Austin Reed in the pocket.

What Went Wrong - by Fletcher Keel

Western Kentucky’s offensive struggles can be encapsulated in one drive from Saturday, the drive that ended the third quarter and began the fourth.

Here is the sequence:

1st & 10: Elijah Young 4-yard rush
2nd & 6: Austin Reed pass to Elijah Young for 3 yards
3rd & 3: Austin Reed pass to Elijah Young for 9 yards
1st & 10: Elijah Young -1-yard rush
2nd & 11: Austin Reed incompletion to Davion Ervin-Poindexter, but NMST flag (holding) gives the Tops a fresh set of downs
1st & 10: Dalvin Smith 25-yard rush
1st & 10: Austin Reed pass to Malachi Corley for 6 yards
2nd & 4: Elijah Young 9-yard rush, NMST flag for targeting
1st & 5: Markese Stepp no-gain rush
2nd & 5: Austin Reed incompletion to Dalvin Smith
3rd & 5: Austin Reed incompletion to Trevor Borland
4th & 5: Missed 22-yard field goal

Did you happen to notice a pattern? There’s a very distinct point in that drive in which the Tops’ went from grooving to not, and it. Cost them dearly.

Make your guesses now. Game show music plays

Those final four plays, after the targeting against Young, the Hilltoppers were goal-to-go, from the five-yard line, and failed to convert. The Tops had Markese Stepp in on first down and then DEP in on second and third down.

Who did they not have in the game in maybe the most crucial juncture to this point? The guy who did a lot of the work to put the Hilltoppers on the doorstep of the goalline, Mr. Young himself.

This wasn’t the only time this happened in the game. You need to look no further than the opening stanza: In the first two drives, both of which resulted in Hilltopper touchdowns, Young touched the ball five times, including four-straight touches to open the game.

He touched it one more time in the first quarter and once on the next drive, that ended in the first missed field goal of the game.

On WKU’s next scoring drive, to end the first half, what do you know, the ball found #3’s hands again!

Fear not, I’m not going to run through every drive like this. I say all of that to say that Tyson Helton and his offensive coaching staff seem to refuse to play their best option at running back, especially when it matters most.

It was one thing to revolve running backs at the beginning of the year, when you aren’t sure who the lead horse in the stable is. It’s another thing when you have a guy who has had back-to-back 100+ all-purpose yard games (something Young did again on Saturday, making for three-straight) and are still intent on playing all three guys, regardless of who the hot hand might be.

Red Threads - by Fletcher Keel

Some final stray thoughts as we can see the end of the 2023 football season in our sights. Sigh

This might be the hottest take I have, but I’m actually okay with not playing in the CUSA title game this year, mostly because I know how it’ll end. We just saw it a couple of weeks ago in Bowling Green, and we have not seen the progression needed to think this team would have been competitive come the first week in December. I get you play the games on the field and not on paper, but we just saw it get played on the field. I guess you can point to being one of the last two teams in the conference standing, but if it means a 21-point loss, that’s just as good as not being there, in my opinion.
Taking a look at the statistical comparison, you’d think the result was flip flopped. WKU outgained NMST in total yards, passing yards, committed fewer penalties, ran more players, picked up more first downs, averaged more yards per play and did so all while holding the ball for less time.
It’s so frustrating that Corley hasn’t been the focal point of the offense in the way we all thought he would be, because his numbers are solid week in and week out. This week, it was six catches for 78 yards and a touchdown. It felt like a four-catch, 50 yard day. I don’t know if that makes sense, but it does in my head.
Ervin-Poindexter finished as WKU’s worst rusher - 11 yards on five carries. Dalvin Smith (1) and Reed (3) each had fewer rushes and more yards. I hate to single him out, because I have no ill will towards him. He just shouldn’t have been in the game on goal-to-go in the fourth quarter over Young.
Austin Reed has thrown over 300 yards twice this year, and has thrown for 280 or fewer four times in the last seven games. Last year, Reed had four such games over the entire season, and two of those were the first two games of the year when he was still finding his footing in a new program.
I saw a lot people bemoaning the play of the defensive line, but I think the bigger factor on defense was with WKU’s defensive backs, who were consistently getting beat by Aggie receivers once they had the ball in their hand. Did Diego Pavia had time to throw, consistently? Yes, but the Aggies receivers did a lot of really good avoiding of WKU’s would-be tacklers, even if just for an extra handful of yards. NMST only threw for 141 yards so the number isn’t eye-popping, but it felt like the biggest difference when the Tops were on defense.
I know there are two games left, but I can’t help set my mind’s wheels in motion as to what 2024 will bring. What, if any, changes will come to the coaching staff, especially on the offensive side. Who will stay, who will transfer, will Helton bring in meaningful transfers, etc. The same way I get excited for MLB’s Hot Stove season, I’m starting to look forward to what the WKU football Hot Stove can behold.
Compare how folks are feeling with this loss to how folks felt about the basketball loss at Wichita. Is WKU turning into a basketball school, once more?