WKU Volleyball: How The Lady Tops Get Through to the Sweet 16

WKU draws South Carolina in its first round matchup to face the winner of #8 Georgia Tech and the Citadel.

They did it to Western Kentucky volleyball.

Again.

Despite being ranked 17th in the AVCA Coaches’ Poll, WKU gets placed in the draw as if they are the 25th best team in the country. This is a slight disservice compared to past years, when WKU would enter the tournament ranked and have to face a top 30 team in the first round, or head across the country, or not host when they had the resume to back it up.

WKU enters the NCAA Tournament 27-1, with the only loss being to Ole Miss, a team that went 21-8 and made the NCAA Tournament themselves. Western played Power 5 competition as well as defeated Rice in the C-USA Championship game, who was also good enough to make the tournament from C-USA with an at-large bid.

So we can moan and groan, or we can get to work. First of all, it’s not so bad. Georgia Tech is certainly one of the better teams in the country, but I doubt they are the one raising the trophy in a few weeks. And South Carolina faced a brutal schedule and will be ready, but they’re 14-14 on the year, barely even qualifying for eligibility into the NCAA Tournament with an at-large bid.

The first thing I look at with WKU is they always struggle with size, but looking at all of the rosters in this little pod, WKU is only slightly smaller than these teams. Certainly they should not be overwhelmed with a bad matchup like a huge Big Ten team or Kentucky, for example.

And also, if WKU were to get past the first two rounds, WKU would play a team ranked no higher than ninth in the country (Ohio State). Then, finally, Western would face a national title contender in Louisville, who the Tops are extremely familiar with an have recent NCAA Tournament history together (2019 five set thriller in E.A. Diddle Arena).

So how does WKU come out of this pod and get its chance with the likes of Ohio State, UNC, or Tennessee in the Sweet 16?

Keys to Advancing

Play Pretty Volleyball

WKU is always really good at stat stuffing. In other words, they always come in with ridiculous numbers. WKU opponents hit .129 against them, while WKU as a team hits far and away the highest of any of the teams in the pod at .344. In addition to that, the Lady Tops are just rarely out of system and rarely make poor decisions. However many games WKU plays this tournament, if they are not easily scoring, they’re certainly not easily winning. They can survive, but usually WKU lives and dies with their numbers.

Expect to Win

Western made it to the Sweet 16 last year, where they met the #2 Kentucky Wildcats (who went on to win the whole thing). They all came back this year because they expect to do big things this year. There is no reason for them to fear any man, so to speak. WKU has wins against really good teams in recent memory, and this particular squad has a ton of experience. Western played UK in exhibition to start the year and tied 2-2 with the Cats. They’ve played Power 5 opponents this season, although they didn’t play the upper echelon this season as much as other years. But much of that was just circumstantial scheduling. The programs they happened to face have been down this season for the most part. Regardless, Georgia Tech really is probably the best team and most talented, but Georgia Tech doesn’t have the experience of getting to the Sweet 16 like you do. South Carolina wasn’t even in it last season. So let’s walk in expecting to walk out moving on.

Be the Most Solid Team

When you’re a little undersized, you have to take advantage of your options that you have. Be the best decision making team, the best scrambling team, the team that doesn’t slap it into the net on the serve, the team that clearly places the ball well. If the Tops do that, obviously that gives them the best chance to win, but it also makes up for any size issues they may face.

One Point is One Point; One Set is One Set

So you just got blasted by a more athletic SEC outside hitter. Big deal. They all count the same. A net violation versus a monster slam into the open wood below counts equally. And one set is as good as another, so don’t get caught up in relaxing if you’re ahead or melting down if you’re losing. Every point and set has a life of its own, and every single one will be different, even if everyone tries to do the exact same thing every time. Compartmentalize and focus on the task at hand.

Stars Must Shine

WKU has plenty of options, but last year in the tournament, Paige Briggs really struggled dealing with UK’s size. Whoever WKU encounters will create some kind of matchup problem, but the stars really need to be great to make a run. Lauren Matthews can hit .350 and be ok, but if she hits .200, that’s a problem. Nadia Dieudonne is one of the best in the country at setting for her teammates, so if she’s panicking and trying to flick the ball over the net too often, or is missing her spots, that could spell trouble.

Prediction

WKU is plenty good enough to run through this pod. WKU is not used to losing sets, let alone matches, so what happens when they deal with adversity? That’s something that remains to be seen heading into this NCAA Tournament. But South Carolina is an interesting draw for the first round. They’re plenty dangerous, for example defeating Washington State and Kentucky and hanging tough with Ole Miss and others. But they also are just not a very good team in general, losing half of their games and sometimes not even being that competitive in those matches. They’re a bit of a mystery, but WKU should be up for the challenge and roll through South Carolina.

Georgia Tech should steamroll the Citadel, which had a losing conference record. They were very fortunate to win their tournament, but almost certainly will not give GT much of a battle. So it should come down to WKU and Georgia Tech. If that happens, it should be a heck of a match. But it’s a road game and it’s a really athletic Georgia Tech team that is no joke. They went through a really strong ACC this season and only lost five matches total. So for an eight seed, they are really strong, despite only being ranked in the polls a couple spots above Western.

They have some massive wins, like beating Louisville, Penn State, and Pitt, among others. The only loss that wasn’t to a top team was against Notre Dame. I hate to pick against the Tops, but despite the fact that the teams they face are not monstrous in stature, they still pose significant threats. I think certainly the Gamecocks could beat WKU in the first round. I don’t think they will, but I think it could be tough if SCAR plays well. Then GT just feels like a really good team, and when I look at their resume, I’m not sure how the coaches didn’t think the Yellow Jackets deserved a higher ranking. And on top of the numbers from this season, they come in from last season hungry to improve on their second round appearance.

I do have the Tops losing in the second round to Georgia Tech, but it’s a true toss-up and really hard to tell which team might actually have the upper hand. We’ll say GT in five intense sets. We wish the ladies good luck this weekend, and I hope I’m sincerely wrong on my prediction.