Women’s NCAA Tournament Preview: WKU vs. Oregon State
Western Kentucky and Oregon State women’s basketball have both had excellent years. The 11th seeded Lady Toppers had a near at-large resume…
Western Kentucky and Oregon State women’s basketball have both had excellent years. The 11th seeded Lady Toppers had a near at-large resume in a conference well outside the top half in the RPI. They won Conference USA’s Tournament title to secure their second consecutive C-USA Tournament title. 6th seeded Oregon State has been a fixture in the NCAA Tournament since 2014 and has won at least one game in each of those tournaments. After receiving a bye, Oregon State was upset in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 Tournament by Arizona State but had won seven in a row beforehand.
Game Info
Time: 11 a.m. CT
Location: Thompson-Bowling Arena | Knoxville, Tenn.
TV: ESPN2
Radio: ESPN 102.7 FM and 1450 AM
With the Lady Toppers receiving their highest seed since 2008, Michelle Clark-Heard and company have to be licking their chops at finally seeing a legitimate opportunity to advance. Conversely, Oregon State has not received a seed as low as 6th since 2014, when interestingly enough, 9th seeded OSU defeated WKU’s arch rival, Middle Tennessee.
The winner of this game in Knoxville faces the winner of 3rd seed Tennessee and 14th seeded Liberty.
Who is Western Kentucky?
The Western Kentucky Lady Toppers (24–8, Conference USA Tournament Champions) are a team that wins by overwhelming its opponent in every category. WKU is not the most efficient team in the country, only shooting 43% on the year but the Lady Tops counteract that by holding opponents to 40% shooting.
The Lady Toppers are better than their opponents in every single major statistical category except assists. Like the WKU men’s team, the Lady Toppers have made more free throws than their opponents have attempted. Perhaps the greatest asset to WKU’s success is its pressure defense; undersized at most positions, WKU runs a 1–3–1 half court trap, and will sprinkle in a 2–2–1 (or variant) full or 3/4 court press throughout ball games. All told, WKU forces 18 turnovers per game, ten of which are steals.
Individually, WKU garnered most of the Conference USA regular season awards. Tashia Brown was Conference Player of the Year, Ivy Brown was Defensive Player of the Year, Raneem Elgedawy garnered Freshman of the Year and Dee Givens was Sixth Player of the Year, coming off of the bench in all but five of her games played. There may not be two better undersized forwards in the women’s game than Tashia Brown and Ivy Brown. Both at 6'1", Tashia is a mid-range one-on-one master, and Ivy shows off an all-around game that can threaten from anywhere on the court. At 6'4", freshman sensation Elgedawy is the Lady Toppers’ only significant size on the roster.
Who is Oregon State?
Oregon State (23–7, 3rd Pac-12) is an efficient basketball team, shooting nearly 50% from the field while shooting over 40% from three and out-rebounding opponents by a massive ten boards per game. Oregon State is also incredible defensively, stifling opponents to below 35% from the field and well under 30% from downtown. However, Oregon State does not shoot free throws well and turns the ball over significantly more times than its opponent.
Oregon State boasts great size across the board, with only four players under six feet tall. For perspective, WKU has six under that mark, with four as short or shorter than OSU’s most vertically challenged player. OSU’s lone elite player is German sensation and lone senior Marie Gulich. Gulich averages 17 points, nine boards, and three blocks a game. Although OSU does not have another official all-conference player, five others were honorable mention between all-conference, all-defensive, and all-freshman.
Head Coach Scott Rueck took over his alma mater in 2010. Since then, Oregon State has jumped from Pac-10 also ran to Pac-12 powerhouse and perennial NCAA Tournament success story. Rueck has reached half of Oregon State’s NCAA Tournaments and over half of the Beavers’ Round of 32 appearances. He also took the Beavers to the Sweet 16 for their second and third times. In 2016, he took his team all the way to the Elite Eight and Final Four for the first time in school history.
Who’s Going to Win, and Why?
This is a juicy match-up. WKU is a team that constricts its opponents, forcing them to make difficult decisions under intense pressure to compensate for its lack of size. OSU is a team that plays elite defense and plays efficient offense, utilizing its significant size to make life difficult on both ends for opponents.
WKU is not an incredible shooting team, while OSU holds opponents to an incredibly low percentage from everywhere. Western decidedly wins the turnover battle, while State decidedly loses it. OSU has the size, but Raneem Elgedawy (finally) changes the perspective for WKU’s size inside.
Both coaches are incredible and neither one of these teams beat themselves.
Can I say more about how interesting this is? Two different styles with juicy possibilities. From a fan’s perspective, I love it.
This thing is coming down to size vs. pressure for me. First, WKU must hold its own down low and not get in foul trouble. Ivy Brown tends to struggle mightily with larger opponents, regardless of how good they are. Can she keep herself out of foul trouble? Raneem Elgedawy must be well into double digits for WKU to feel good about its chances. WKU needs to better their season average in steals.
Oregon State is going to need to take care of the basketball. If the average turnover margins are combined, WKU could hope to force 11 more turnovers than they commit. That could make all of the difference in the world.
Frankly, I’m bouncing back and forth on this. Both teams are fairly young, but they both have expectations and hopes to do well and experience in key positions. WKU has had its best season in years, while OSU has had its worst.
Okay, I’ll quit beating around the bush. I think WKU wins this thing in a thriller. I believe WKU has more offensive firepower, and I believe (finally) Western has the size and ability to compete with huge Power 5 squads. Although smaller, WKU is comparable at all positions in the starting lineup. When you look at WKU’s offensive ability in combination with its ability to get out and force turnovers, the Lady Toppers will find themselves in the Round of 32 for the first time since Y2K, Al Gore’s recounts, and the launching of Playstation 2.