Family Dinner Table BREAKING NEWS: BC QB Ruled Out! Can WKU Shock Boston College?
FB: WKU draws Boston College on the road for Week Five of the 2024 season. As we were getting ready to post this article, news broke that BC starting QB Thomas Castellanos will not play vs WKU.
Western Kentucky Football finally decided to get right early. Now the question is, “Have they peaked too soon?” Also, what is their potential for 2024?
We think WKU still has plenty of potential to get much better than they already are. WKU is yet to play a perfect game on both sides of the ball.
Alabama? Heckkk no! That was embarrassing.
Eastern Kentucky? Well, the shutout was impressive, but the defense gave up a chunk of run yardage and EKU had plenty more opportunity in the passing game than they took. WKU’s offense was below average until the middle of the fourth quarter.
Middle Tennessee? Offense was amazing and probably near its top end, but the defense gave up over 500 yards.
Toledo? Heck of a gritty win! And the defense was magnificent, forcing four turnovers and holding a team averaging nearly 40 to barely 20. The offense, however, committed three turnovers (one in crunch time) and barely came up with 300 yards of offense and couldn’t really run the ball.
The potential is significant.
Boston College fans and prognosticators probably also are left in excited mystery. BC has found ways to win three games against presumably high quality opponents. They nearly beat top ten Missouri, so are they for real? Are they going to win eight or nine games and compete for an ACC championship? Or will they fade into preseason expectations of hoping to make a bowl game?
This game is interesting, because it gives both teams a measuring stick. BC fans are hoping for a blowout against a good Group of Five team in Western Kentucky. WKU fans are hoping to hang and have a chance to steal one. A win would get national attention and send Bowling Green into a frenzy.
“I brought you into this world, and I’ll take you out!” -David McCay
Both WKU and Boston College being 3-1 on the season is a surprise to most experts across the country. Especially BC because they had #10 Florida State, #6 Missouri, and Michigan State on their early schedule, but their only loss is to Missouri. Most people thought if WKU could split the four games and be 2-2 that would be enough to start this season, but WKU just upset MAC favorite, almost ranked (now they’re not), and very talented Toledo on Saturday. WKU comes into Saturday’s (12pm Eastern/11pm Central) matchup as sizable underdogs (lines varying from 12-15 points) with total scoring expected in the mid 50s (Over/Under 54.5). I see several problems for the Toppers in this game.
BC’s competition has been of a higher caliber (ACC, SEC, Big10) and they have performed well.
BC has a Dual threat quarterback and WKU struggles against good ones.
BC is a rushing team first and WKU has not defended the rush well at times.
BC has balanced yardage on far fewer pass attempts. So when they pass, it is effective.
Game Being played in Boston.
Boston College Players to Watch
BC has a very capable, mobile quarterback, Thomas Castellanos #1. Thomas comes in with a quarterback rating of 257 at home and 193 overall. He has completed 45 of 70 passes for 10 TDs and 2 interceptions and rushed 43 times for 112 yards and another TD. Castellanos has been sacked 9 times so far this season, so when he passes he may hold onto the ball too long. But Boston College is a very balanced team and this may be a pick your poison, “Do we stop run or pass?”, game for WKU.
Boston College as a very effective running back group of three and one name Hilltoppers may recognize. Treshaun Ward #0 leads all running backs with 40 carries for 255 yards and two TDs, plus seven receptions for 116 yards and two more TDs. Turbo Richard #27 has 30 carries for 151 Yards and a TD. Kye Robichaux #5 a former WKU leading rusher rounds out the three with 31 carries for 121 yards and a TD.
Lewis Bond #11 is their main receiver with 16 catches for 251 yards and two TDs. BC has other receivers, but Bond has 34% of the completions.
On the Defense, defensive back Carter Davis #28 leads the team with 22 tackles, a forced fumble, and an interception. The middle of the defense is controlled by Daveon Crouch #1 and Kam Arnold #5 with 20 tackles each. Donovan Ezeiruaku #6 leads the team with six sacks and a total of 19 tackles. This defense only gives up 17.7 points and 308.5 yards per game (97 rush yards). So, Boston College has a very solid defense and will be one of the best WKU will face this year.
Western Kentucky Players to Watch
Caden Veltcamp #10 will receive the start again this weekend as TJ Finley #2 continues to recover from a lower leg injury suffered at MTSU two weeks ago. Caden is the key payer and will need to continue to improve as he goes against a stingy Boston College defense. The coaches need to open up the playbook and let the WKU offense fly this game. BC has some defensive speed, but they will give up some passing yards, so deception and crossing/rub routes will be key to get receivers open. The offensive line must give Caden the time to find the open receiver. If Veltcamp can find open receivers quickly, will be able to move the ball and score. WKU needs to put up good offensive numbers and score 30+ points to win this one. If the game is low scoring, it favors the better rushing team, Boston College.
The WKU defense has improved weekly and must slow down the rushing attack of Boston College this weekend. BC rushes about 2/3 of the time and uses the pass for big plays. The WKU defensive coaches must come up with a scheme to contain wide receiver Lewis Bond, who has by far the most receptions, and limit BC’s yards per carry. I think staying in base defense with limited blitz’s will help WKU this week. Western has had success in figuring some things out in the last three games defensively during the games, and will need to do that again this weekend. Make good adjustments and hold on.
David’s Final Thoughts
This game statistically is very even once again. WKU passes very well and BC runs very well. The difference is the teams BC has played are from higher conferences, so they have the slight edge. After last weekend against Toledo, I will not count WKU out, but as I have mentioned BC’s rushing attack is one of the best WKU will face this year.
I think this game could be low scoring and points a premium as both scoring defenses are very stingy. I will put caveats on this one because its so close. As I said previously, WKU must move the ball, limit three and outs, and score points. BC must contain WKU’s passing attack, run the ball well and score too. My brain says WKU cannot do it two weeks in a row. My heart says Western will be able to pass, score and contain the run.
I’m going with my heart and against the odds. WKU 31 - BC 24.
David on Injury Update:
I for sure think we have a better chance to win. Their backup (Grayson James) is the FIU guy we beat to heck in 2022.
He can still run, but slower. Now we don’t need to spy QB every play. Just on third-and-short. We still must score any points we can.
“You forced me into this world; I’ll force you out!” -Matt McCay
WKU comes into this one feeling good after a win, and frankly, if they feel great about it, they’re looking at it the wrong way. The defense had a really nice game, but the game before, they were porous. Offensively, WKU has one good game, and it wasn’t this last one. It was against an FBS opponent (MTSU) and it was against a rival and heck, it got the Tops off to a 1-0 start in CUSA. So I’m not complaining.
But…
Western’s offense has had two and a half games of very average to below average production, be it on the scoreboard or in terms of yardage. The offense is not on the ropes, but it’s also not firing on all cylinders just yet. If WKU wants to beat Boston College, it’s going to take a mammoth effort on both ends, or BC is just going to have to absolutely just wet the bed.
A Herculean Effort
WKU’s effort in the second half against Toledo was a truly incredible display of focus. Toledo is a good football team with pride and was playing to keep an undefeated season going with its biggest remaining obstacle besides a few threats in the MAC. They weren’t just going to lay down, and the job the defense did in both halves was incredible. Sure, they were on pace to give up nearly 400 yards, but against a good team and a good offense, they were being stingy and making them work. Sometimes you just hold your own and the offense has to do its job.
Against Boston College, WKU is going to have to play really well and hope BC is not really focused. For those thinking BC is a weak team from a weaker Power Four conference, think again. They’ve proven their quality already with two Power Five wins and nearly a third. Even if they got lucky, could WKU go to three Power Fives in one season and come out with two wins, regardless of who they were? Probably not.
So expect that this is like a Virginia Tech, who has been beaten by G5’s before that played really well. Think of an Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, UK, Arkansas, BYU type of feel. These are all previous opponents of WKU that the Tops have four total wins against over nearly two decades in the FBS. Think of the level those teams were when they played. For example, Illinois and Tennessee are currently ranked. Obviously, WKU would need an absolute miracle to beat those teams. A good comparison to Boston College is when WKU played Tennessee in 2013 under Bobby Petrino. That’s about the level we’re looking at.
If you recall that game, WKU struggled with Tennessee’s athletes and committed a ton of turnovers. Now, WKU played absolutely awful football against them, so it’s difficult to compare how that could have gone if the Tops didn’t commit seven turnovers.
However, in Boston College, I see a really good quarterback that should give WKU fits because he’s really difficult to contain. He may spray the ball some, but he’s good and he’s athletic. They can run the ball really well.
Defensively, they have some ball hawks in the secondary with some speed that can surprise you with what situations they can get to in a hurry. The Eagles also have a defensive line that can cause trouble. More generally on defense, after playing two ranked teams and another 3-1 Power Four football team, they are giving up 309 total yards per game and only 96 on the ground, and have intercepted the football six times in four games.
Where WKU Could Take Advantage
Boston College’s Offensive Line
The BC offensive line has given up ten sacks in four games, with no more than four and no less than one given up in any one game. This tells me they consistently struggle with defensive fronts. It doesn’t mean they are awful, because the Eagles also run for nearly 200 yards per game. Excluding the sacks, they do rush for over 200 per game.
WKU’s defensive line has gotten plenty of pressure, but has not really gotten home. If WKU can get some tackles for loss and get some sacks, this could really foil BC’s plans offensively.
BC’s Special Teams Suspect at Best
BC’s special teams are suspect, especially in the punting department. An atrocious 36.5 yards per punt and less than 34 net, BC might lose a game or two over punting that bad. Here’s to it being close enough for this to matter, Tops.
In addition to the punting, there’s nothing magnificent in any of the other special teams areas, and BC’s kicker has only attempted one kick all season, which was a respectable 39 yards. Even if he’s a good kicker or has been in his past, with one kick in his career at BC, who knows if he’s ready to do something impactful?
Keys to Victory
Take Advantage Where You Can Get it
Overall, Boston College looks to be pretty good. Bill O’Brien is a heck of a coach with a heck of a resume for a program like Boston College that has fallen on hard times in recent memory. However, as I said above, the offensive line has given up a ton of sacks and another ten TFLs despite a running game that produces nearly 200 net yards. All four punters that have come out and punted for BC have averaged 39.6 or less per punt, and only two punts have traveled over 50 yards. These are two huge areas that WKU should try to take advantage.
Force Boston College to Pass
First of all, Thomas Castellanos is a good football player, and he can pass the football. That being said, BC’s strength is running the football with the quarterback and the running backs. They do give up some TFLs in the running game, so there’s opportunity there. However, overall, this is a nationally excellent running game. WKU transfer Kye Robichaux left the Tops for the Eagles, and he has been a significant part of their ground game. He is injured, so it should be a little easier to hang with BC’s running game with such a quality backup down.
BC still has two good running backs and a QB who still nets 28 yards per game despite being sacked for 54 negative yards on the season. The Eagles passing offense ironically does not really fly as high, passing for three yards less per game than they rush. Castellanos has a nice arm, but he can be inaccurate and get himself into trouble at times. He can also hold on to the ball and do a few things to get himself into even more trouble. WKU’s best play here is go assignment football, man up, and hope Castellanos just doesn’t torch the WKU secondary.
Pass for 300 or More Yards
BC gives up 213 yards per game, which is not elite. The Eagles’ run defense is elite, stopping opponents for less than 100 yards per game. My guess is WKU will not remotely be able to run the ball, so the Tops will need to find a way to have some kind of balance with some kind of a threat of the run, while basically just needing to air it out, suck it up, and make plays happen through the air.
I believe a reasonable goal that should fare well for WKU is just get to 300 yards. That will give you enough offense to have a chance, and hopefully the passing game will force BC to loosen up in the trenches and allow WKU to move the ball in whatever way they wish. If they can do that, they’ll have a shot offensively, and it will come down to WKU’s defense getting some stops.
Rush for More than 75 Yards
As I’m sitting here trying to figure out a formula offensively to beat BC, I believe WKU must have some type of running game or they won’t win. It doesn’t have to be spectacular, and it’s an Air Raid, so by design, you shouldn’t need to be incredible on the ground. But if you can’t run the ball worth a Chaney’s Dairy Barn cow pie, you are not going to win unless this is an absolute trudge fest on both sides of the ball. Get to 75 yards, and I feel really good about where this could go. Combine it with 300 passing and you’ve got a serious formula for a good offensive performance. And once again, it’s on the defense to make it happen.
Get Off the Field
Boston College converts a lot of their third (and fourth) downs, and WKU’s defense really seems to struggle to get off the field without a turnover. WKU’s third down defense is in the bottom ten (125th) in the country. Other than that, WKU’s defense is fairly solid. If the Tops want to pull the upset, they need to find ways to get stops consistently. Against a team that can run, forcing them into obvious passing downs puts pressure on them to do what they are not best at. Or they must choose to run the ball on 3rd-and-long and hope they gain enough. Either way is a good situation for WKU.
Finally got a Bone to Pick With Pops
Listen, Pops, finally, I’ve got something in our articles to come at you with. I love our Toppers, but I really don’t think I see a WKU victory. I admire the pick with the heart, but respectfully, I’m gonna disagree, sir.
No one loves the Tops more than I do, but with everything I’m looking at, the fact that BC has the same record with way less flaws against better competition just tells me how this will probably go.
I sincerely think WKU acquits itself and looks respectable. I don’t believe they get blasted out of the stadium. But when I think about the likelihood of outcomes for this game, I feel like it’s just as equal of a likelihood that WKU gets blown out as winning in any way. I don’t see very many ways WKU wins…
And as I write this finishing up our article…
So…
Matt’s Update on the QB Situation
Dadgumit, Dad. I swear, it always seems he comes up with the craziest crap, you call him out on it, and he proves to be absolutely right.
So you know what? Screw it. Tops by 90, right?
Given this nugget, I’m changing my pick from our prediction article (I said 31-20 BC)…I’m going WKU 20-BC 16.
Conclusion: Literally No Idea What to Think…Since This Whole Thing Was Written Assuming BC’s Very Good QB Was Playing!
This is crazy. Liberty/App State is straight up canceled because of flooding in Boone.
Now Castellanos isn’t even playing, and the guy who’s his backup? The guy WKU ABSOLUTELY DUMP TRUCKED 73-0 when he played for FIU.
I mean…how did that guy end up at BC?
After looking at his bio on Boston College’s website, he was All-CUSA Honorable Mention his sophomore year (2023) before transferring to Boston College. He improved significantly in his second year of playing, and he was a stud of a high school player. Now that I’m refreshing my memory, FIU was really high on him, but he was just extremely young when WKU trounced him.
Anyway, he’s the backup, and now it’s a complete mystery how this goes. If you’re betting on the game, expect more run plays and less scoring from Boston College.
This changes nothing from a WKU perspective offensively. Western still must find a way to score against a really good defense. However, they are probably going to get the ball a little more often with a young backup QB with little high level Power Four game experience under his belt.
Castellanos has that experience and was the named starter. Surely, BC knew this all week, and it has leaked in final prep (intentional or not) that the QB is out. BC is prepared, but WKU is likely not. But surely in general, this improves WKU’s chances, especially because they will have previous film studies on Grayson James.
Wow. We are thunderstruck with this news. This game just went from a 13 point spread when starting to write this article this week to just -8 for BC. This completely changed everything.
Good luck, everybody! Who knows what happens now?!?
It’s football time on The Hill, and the Tops have finally shown us they might be able to play some good ball this season. This is a measuring stick game. Win or lose, we’ll have plenty to talk about after. Make sure you start your new subscription with The Towel Rack and follow all of our articles on all things WKU Athletics!
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