WKU Basketball: Preview for Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State
Jordan Rawls, now with New Mexico State, faces off against his former team in a Thursday night matchup in Las Cruces, New Mexico. Here is everything you need to know for WKU vs NMSU on Jan 18, 2024.
Overview
On Thursday, January 18, The Western Kentucky University Hilltoppers head out west to face off against a familiar face in Jordan Rawls and the New Mexico State University Aggies in Las Cruces, New Mexico. Western Kentucky (13-4, 2-1 CUSA) is coming off of a bounce back game of 80-69 after defeating Jacksonville State in Bowling Green last Saturday night to move the Hilltoppers up to second in the conference. New Mexico State (7-10, 1-1 CUSA) is coming off of a tough road loss in Miami against the Florida International University Panthers, dropping the Aggies to sixth in the conference. As of publication, ESPN’s BPI slightly favors New Mexico State with a 51.1% chance of winning.
Notable Statistics
WKU Stat Leaders
PPG: Don McHenry- 15.3 points per game
RPG: Brandon Newman- 6.2 rebounds per game
APG: Khristian Lander- 2.5 assists per game
NMSU Stat Leaders
PPG: Robert Carpenter- 10.2 points per game
RPG: Kaosi Ezeagu- 5.6 rebounds per game
APG: Jordan Rawls- 4.4 assists per game
WKU Team Stats
79.4 PPG
45% FG
32.7% 3PT (45% in C-USA play)
41.2 RPG
12.9 APG
7.8 SPG
NMSU Team Stats
70.2 PPG
43.3% FG
33.4% 3PT
34.2 RPG
12.8 APG
7.1 SPG
Keys To Victory
WKU
To win this game, Western is going to have to take care of the ball. Throughout Conference play, WKU has averaged 17.7 turnovers per game. That’s just way too much. You can say that every team so far has just had really good defense, which may be true, but it looks like Western is just having trouble settling in and getting into their rhythm offensively. Against New Mexico State, WKU is going to need to settle in early and make sure they are taking care of the ball, or else it will be a very long game for the Tops.
Another important thing that WKU needs to do is stay out of foul trouble. We’ve seen different key players get into foul trouble early in the first half, on multiple occasions, which forces Coach Lutz to put them on the bench for the remainder of the half. This really put WKU into a hole against Sam Houston when three Khristian Lander, Dontaie Allen, and Enoch Kalambay got into foul trouble early which means they had to sit for the remainder of the half. Players that don’t usually play have to come into the game and try to take their place, which really isn’t a good situation to be in when you’re on the road. It should be a point of emphasis for the Tops to stay out of foul trouble, particularly in the early portions of this game. Complain about the officials all you want, but awareness goes a long way in staying out of foul trouble.
The last thing that WKU is going to need to do to win this game is to play as a team. When Western plays for Western, they’re very hard to beat on both ends of the floor. You could especially see this in the second half of WKU’s last game against Jacksonville State. Once WKU started playing team defense and unselfish offense, they turned the game around and completely took over. It’s going to be hard for the Tops to be able to break through if they are playing selfish basketball, like we have seen before this year, but when they play together and play team basketball, they look like the best team in Conference USA.
New Mexico State
The first thing that New Mexico State needs to do to be able to win this game is to crash the boards. WKU is currently ranked 19th in the country at 41.2 rebounds per game, compared to New Mexico State, who is currently tied for 250th in the country at 34.2 rebounds per game. The Aggies are really going to have to box out and crash the boards to be able to have a chance in this game.
New Mexico State is also going to need to shoot well from distance. Western Kentucky is currently ranked 17th in the country holding their opponents to just 28.3% from three-point range. It will be very important for the Aggies to get their shooters going early and keep them going because WKU is not going to let them have anything easy from beyond the arc. With NMSU normally hitting more than one third of its threes, something has to give.
New Mexico State, much like WKU, is also going to need to take care of the ball. With Western’s defensive pressure, the New Mexico State guards, Jordan Rawls in particular, are really going to have to take care of the ball to prevent WKU from getting out in transition, which is something that the Tops will be looking to do all game. The Aggies are another team that has struggled with turnovers throughout conference play, averaging 15 turnovers per game in their first two conference games. It will be critical for New Mexico State to limit their turnovers and keep the Hilltoppers from getting out in transition. With yet another category where WKU is similar to NMSU, it’s really going to come down to which team minimizes its issues, or which team plays above their normal level.
Richards’ Expectations and Predictions
I’m honestly not really sure what to expect with this game. Both teams are very new teams, meaning they are made up of a lot of transfers that have never played with each other before this season, both teams have first year head coaches, and both teams have rarely played each other historically, so this game is honestly a complete mystery. With that being said, I know that both teams want to win badly and I fully expect this game to be an intense and exciting game.
So I personally had a HUGE bounce-back with the WKU vs Jacksonville State score only being two points off of my prediction and hopefully I’ll be able to keep the train going. My score prediction for this game is going to be 77-62 WKU. I know it’s a toss-up, but I don’t think that New Mexico State will be able to handle the pressure that Western brings on the defensive side of the ball. I think that the Tops are going to be able to have their way on defense and on the glass leading to a lot of transition opportunities. If Western just keeps playing how they played in the second half of the Jacksonville State game, I don’t see any way that they lose this game.
Conclusion
Overall, I’m very excited to see how these teams match up with each other and it will be very interesting to see Jordan Rawls playing against the Tops in a conference game. I know that the Aggies have had an up and down season so far and have struggled coming together while being a completely new roster and head coach after their disaster last year, but they have a real chance to prove themselves as a contender in this league.
For anyone that is not able to make it to Las Cruces, the game will be on ESPN+ Thursday night at 8:00 CT. You can also tune into @thetowelrackwku on Twitter/X for build-up, live tweets, and reactions. While you’re at it, go ahead and check out the RedOut Podcast on Twitter/X and on YouTube. As always, we are your #1 source for unfiltered and honest WKU content!
One of the worst losses in recent memory. Whole new team. New coach. Blew a 23 point lead. NMSU didn’t have their best perimeter player. All the good will built up by Lutz with the secondary and tertiary fans goes out the window when you lose to teams like this. This is a poor loss for even a bad wku team. This is supposed to be a good one. Got to have better coaching and playing down the stretch. We have 5 assistants and I don’t know a one of them who played real meaningful Division 1 basketball. I get you want grinders but you need coaches who will sit there and tell a kid what to do on D and demand more out of them than these guys. Really bad effort in the 2nd half and this is about the 7th time this season. Tops have been lucky. Need to be better than this. This program has been to a final 4 and has been to multiple sweet 16s. So has VCU. They don’t have football we do. They’re viewed as a better program than we are. That’s shameful. Need guys who won’t lose to these piss poor programs on the road. I don’t see VCU dropping games yearly to Duquesne and Fordham. Be better.