WKU Basketball: What Jairus Hamilton's Return Means to the Tops

March 17th, Hamilton announced via Twitter that he was back on The Hill for "One More Run”

Honestly, could it get anymore exciting?

Jhammy⛹🏾 @j_hamilton007

Time to run it back BG🤝

Both sides of the persistent Rick Stansbury debate could surely agree the potential is there for a massive 2022-23.

To quickly recap that reference (because it’s literally the second thing that gets talked about besides signing these great players), Rick Stansbury came to WKU in 2016-17, has recruited his buns off, seemingly assembling superhuman rosters, only to watch them perform a combination of a disappearing act at an illusionist’s show and underachieving like the most recent version of the Los Angeles Lakers.

Western still is yet to break through and make “The Big Dance”, although they have come extremely close, making three consecutive Conference USA Championship Games (2018, 2019, and 2021) and losing two of three with an opportunity to win on the final possession of regulation. They lost their first game in the 2022 conference tournament against eventual finalist Louisiana Tech after pulling a miraculous run to secure the coveted “double bye”.

So one side of the debate believes Rick Stansbury has done enough to be considered a success, some even arguing to the hilt that he’s comparable to John Oldham, that he needs time, and that he’s doing a great job. On the other side, you have everything from, “He needs to hurry and win this next season or else!” to as extreme as he should’ve been fired after 2019 and that he “couldn’t win Conference USA with The Dream Team”.

Regardless of the debate about the head man, there’s zero question he has busted his tail keeping not one but two players seeking NIL money on campus while also adding two massive transfers and two more really good JUCO players. Forgotten in the foregone conclusionness (sure it’s a word) of it all is the return of Topper boomerang transfer Jordan Rawls, who arguably would have been in the rotation every year of his career if he had just stayed put. He was basically known to be transferring back in January. In addition, Stansbury has kept youngster Elijah Hughey, Darrius Miles, and 2022 starter Luke Frampton happy thus far despite obvious reasons for them to grow sour and take off on the head man.

What Jairus Hamilton Means

First of all, it seemed absolutely certain that Hamilton, a former Power Five transfer (Maryland), was going on to “greener” pastures immediately after the season was over. Was he going pro? Was he going to transfer? What have you. Well, as time went along, it became clear he didn’t have as much of a market as one would think (me included), and rumors started to swirl that he might just return to The Hill. Lo and behold, he announces his return, and the impossible rumors prove themselves true.

It’s always nice to return players, but it’s especially nice to return arguably the most productive player on the team. I say “arguably”, because at one point, he was WKU’s most productive player. Dayvion McKnight blew that distinction away, but let’s not forget: For the first month and a half of the season, Jairus Hamilton was largely considered WKU’s best player. Jamarion Sharp also probably outstripped Jairus in terms of impact, as well. Frankly, he faded massively down the stretch, but Jairus was incredibly important to last year’s team. He was the only offensive post threat in 2021-22 that received consistent playing time.

Jairus Hamilton returns someone who can start and be a really good, productive player. Will he start? That remains to be seen, because the Tops bring in multiple high ceiling JUCO forwards and return the redshirted Darrius Miles, who could also blossom if he gets his body in better basketball shape. That’s a lot of competition, and that’s not including the possibility Rick Stansbury still brings in a bona fide post threat to bolster the offensive prowess underneath the basket.

But Jairus Hamilton now gives WKU a for real two deep across the board. Western now has even more options, even if the two JUCO transfers, Fallou Diagne and Tyrone Marshall, are complete non-factors early on at WKU.

If this roster made it to November, the presumed starters would be:

PG: Dayvion McKnight

SG: Khristian Lander

SF: Dontaie Allen

PF: Jairus Hamilton

C: Jamarion Sharp

That’s three power five transfers, a First Team All C-USA point guard, and a C-USA Defensive Player of the Year who also happens to be the tallest player in the country. All five have massive potential both at WKU and beyond. Any of them could position themselves onto elite pro teams overseas or even into the NBA by the end of their WKU career in an ideal world.

That’s impressive enough.

Behind them right now would be guards Jordan Rawls, Luke Frampton, Elijah Hughey, and Noah Stansbury and forwards Diagne, Marshall, and Darrius Miles. Each of those pieces provides some level of experience or interesting potential.

Jordan Rawls is an interesting hybrid player that can spell McKnight or Lander. McKnight or Lander could both probably function as point guards or shooting guards themselves. So that’s a ton of versatility among the three most likely men to occupy those spots on the floor given the current roster.

Then Luke Frampton is interesting, because he is now presumably unlikely to start, despite having started every game last season. He brings massive shooting potential, as well as being an explosive weapon, whether he starts or comes off the bench. It is theoretically possible that Allen is not as elite as his high school star rating was and Luke starts. That’s a fairly comfortable proposition if that was the case, as well.

Down low, Jairus really bolsters both the 4 and the 5 spots. He could be a backup to both the 4 and the 5 and see significant minutes, or if he outright earns the start at power forward, that’s fine, too. Darrius Miles and Fallou Diagne provide 6’10” bodies if nothing else. JUCO Tyrone Marshall provides a 6’7” body that can shoot the lights out to the tune of 50% from three, so unless he just completely can’t function at this higher level of basketball, he could find a rotation spot somewhere, as well.

The amount of options are seemingly endless. WKU could go small with midsized to big bodies that can shoot with Jairus Hamilton at the five, or WKU could go huge with up to four men 6’7” or taller and a point guard. With Dayvion McKnight’s thickness, imagine a Conference USA lineup of 6’1” with girth, 6’7”, 6’8”, 6’10”, and 7’5”.

It’s really fascinating to consider what this team could look like.

Now, the question in every honest fan’s head is, “Haven’t we seen this before?” WKU’s roster seemed to be of elite caliber heading into the 2017-18 season until all fell apart and a mass exodus left WKU with barely enough people to field a team due to two scholarship players ruled ineligible until later in the season.

In one of Rick Stansbury’s better coaching jobs, the Tops salvaged that season and were an aforementioned in-and-out putback by Lamonte Bearden away from an NCAA Tournament berth. They ended up running to the NIT Final Four in one of the gutsiest performances by a Topper squad ever, laying waste to several Power Five opponents along the way that season.

But the bigger point is this: In modern college basketball (and particularly at WKU under Rick Stansbury), it’s impossible to know what your team will look like next March when you don’t even have your incoming prospects completely disenrolled from their current schools yet in mid-May. Let alone, what happens once you show your cards to your roster in November and half of them don’t make the rotation?

If WKU can simply maintain what they have in place (or obviously add two more scholarship players), they may really have something this year. Western just got that much more ahead of most of the teams in Conference USA. Given no other movement, one would assume a three horse race in C-USA between UAB, UNT, and WKU. But the more WKU adds, the more the spotlight tips to Western. With Jelly Walker returning to UAB, unless the Toppers land another significant recruit or two, UAB may be the leader in the clubhouse with five three star transfers and another four star, all of which should be immediately eligible.

Regardless of the prognosis of other teams in C-USA, let’s say Dontaie Allen is a complete bust. Obviously, we think not, but say he is. WKU still has five starters and some backups on a roster that would still be considered C-USA contenders. Say Khristian Lander struggles. Jordan Rawls is there and already started at WKU for a championship level team. Dayvion McKnight is still there, never wavering from the Tops. In the post, without the two JUCOs doing anything, you have your starters in Hamilton and Sharp. If the JUCO boys are really good (which percentages say one of them should be, at least), that’s an embarrassment of riches.

So once again, Rick Stansbury is really boxing himself into some huge expectations. Whether the expectations are fair or not, when looking back at the talent amassed this year and other years, it’s almost mathematically impossible that WKU could go this entire time without breaking the seal and busting through to the NCAA Tournament.

Before the rebuttal comments explode in response, just do the math.

Assuming WKU was about an even matchup three times in a row in the championship game, the chances that they would lose all three was 12.5%. You wanna quibble with me and say 15%? Fine. The specific numbers don’t matter. Add in a 2021-22 where the Tops were picked third and a 2022-23 prediction that surely won’t be any less than third and the chances that all of that goes wrong for the Tops mathematically is way less than 10%. All of that waffle was to prove the point that it really has been an incredible stroke of horrible luck that WKU hasn’t already won a Conference USA Championship.

But what it also means is, frankly, most can do simple math, too. If Rick Stansbury does all of this to get the Toppers so close to The Promised Land (I belly laugh at anyone who downgrades the importance of the NCAA Tournament) and still doesn’t deliver, ultimately people are going to wonder how it’s possible. Why? Because it’s mathematically more than a 90% chance that all of that data would result in one breakthrough. It’s completely fair to ask how it’s possible if this goes one more year without postseason success.

So the pressure’s on. We can play pretend that this is not a crucial moment in WKU Basketball history. The luster of NCAA Tournament appearances from ten years ago has now faded, the NIL rears its ugly head on the mid-majors’ opportunities to break through, and WKU really needs a massive boost from explosive success in the spotlight to position itself as a brand and as a university as a whole.

Should the players feel all of that? I don’t think so. They shouldn’t take all of that on. That would be incredibly unfair. I imagine a completely candid Todd Stewart and Tim Caboni would articulate that this really is a massive moment for WKU in their heart of hearts. But the Basketball Tops should ignore the external pressure but darn well feel the motivation from having missed out on so many close calls.

It’s time to break through, Tops. Do it for Coach. Do it for Justin. Do it for Taveion. Do it for Josh. Do it for all of them.

Maybe this year is the year.