WKU Football: Matt’s Stats - Why WKU’s 2022 Season Could be Better than 2021
Is it possible? How could WKU be better after losing multiple historically great players from last season?
In lieu of doing a “Game Grades,” after a week where the Tops won by 73 points and the starters only played two and a half quarters, let’s pivot to something else constructive: Hypothesizing about hypotheses.
WKU wins 73-0 against the FIU Panthers. Good lord. What was so astounding about the dominance was this was just a steady, game long swell of incredible pressure from WKU on both sides of the ball.
FIU could not breathe.
You see a 73-0 score line, from afar, you probably think, “Well, they must have gotten close to scoring a few times!” Or “Well, there were probably a couple of pick 6’s in there.”
No. There was a fumble-six, but other than that, this was complete and utter domination by WKU. FIU had 180 total yards. They had 10 first downs. They didn’t make it to WKU’s 40-yard line all game.
What’s terrifying about the whole thing? Western subbed the starters out early in the second half. They just kept coming. What was WKU supposed to do? Take knees? Not tackle?
So the dominance begs several questions:
How good is this team?
What the heck happened to the defense? Where did this level of intensity come from?
How can you lose Zappe, Sterns, Tinsley (Penn State), Malone, Kincade, and Haggerty (all pros or P5 transfer starters) and somehow look better than last year?
Is WKU now the C-USA favorite?
I say this in my articles a lot: Football is way more about being solid everywhere than having elite talent somewhere.
In basketball, one superstar can make a team decent. In football, one really good player might not be enough to win a single game (without help).
I’d like anyone reading this to find me a blaring weakness for this WKU team.
I’ll keep waiting.
Keep looking…
Surely there’s something…
The worst things I can come up with for WKU is third down offense, field goal kicking, penalty yardage, and position wise maybe wide receiver depth? Even that last one has calmed down significantly in the past few weeks.
Position by position, the Tops are pretty good to really good. Not only are they good, but for the most part, they’re deep.
That’s how you win 73-0 against an FBS opponent that could win a few games when all is said and done. Are FIU world beaters? No. And they may not win another game. But the way in which it was done was so dominant that you have to take pause and wonder if that was the maximum for this team or if it’s a sign of more amazing things to come.
The 2021 Hilltoppers
In 2021, Western Kentucky was at its highest level since 2016, when the Tops won their second of back-to-back Conference USA titles and took down Memphis in the Boca Raton Bowl.
Last season, WKU went 9-5, with only one loss in its last nine games. It was a tale of two seasons in some ways. For the first five games, WKU was 1-4, giving up nearly 40 points per game. In its final nine games, WKU gave up under 25 per game. Clearly, the defense picked it up in the latter part of the season.
Offensively, anyone who was paying attention knows Bailey Zappe, Jerreth Sterns and Mitchell Tinsley, along with a historically great offensive line, led the Tops to one of the best passing (and overall) offenses in the history of college football. WKU was so dominant offensively last year that any team that couldn’t muster 30 or more points was going to lose to WKU. That’s a difficult output for most teams, even in modern college football. That was the minimum required to beat WKU, and it proved impossible for most late in the season.
That being said, let’s let the stats tell the story of the 2021 Toppers. I’ll point out any weaknesses and strengths as they come up, and let’s let you decide whether the 2021 or 2022 version is likely to be more successful by the end of the year.
See for yourself, but obviously, 44 points per game will get it done. Western finished behind only Ohio State in terms of overall offensive yards per game. Defensively, Western was outside of the top 100 in yardage allowed. The Tops could not get off of the field defensively, allowing teams to convert third downs 44% of the time. Thankfully, WKU forced a ton of turnovers, especially later in the season. Otherwise, down-to-down, the Tops struggled to find stops.
Another blaring weakness for WKU last season was rushing yardage. Western started out with several games of struggle just finding anyone who could gain a few yards. In an air raid offense, just having some kind of threat is usually good enough. Western had no threat until Noah Whittington emerged as the main feature back later in the year.
There were a few other things to note in this opening set of statistics to note: Special teams in general last year was incredible. That was a huge factor in why WKU was so tough to beat. John Haggerty III was booming punts, Cory Munson was unstoppable kicking the ball off, and Brayden Narveson was good enough to not be a liability, although he did miss three of his final six kicks of the year. Return-wise, several guys took their turns, and for the most part, Western was more solid than anything in the return game, and in terms of coverage, Western’s punt team actually struggled to keep up with Haggerty’s deepest punts, allowing a few longer returns simply because of outkicking the coverage.
Individually, notice the explosion from the receiving corps. The depth was incredible, as well, with four guys basically averaging 50+ yards per game. Sterns and Tinsley both averaged 100+. That was an extraordinary achievement. Notice the running game, though. Whittington had one extremely long rush of 86 yards, but no one else had longer than a 28-yard run. Now, that may seem minuscule, but having truly explosive plays in the run game is so much more devastating than throwing a bomb down the field for 50 yards. That was lacking in the Hilltopper offense.
In addition, we compare Zappe to Austin Reed, naturally. When making the comparison apples to apples, look at a few things besides just passing yards. First of all, look at average rushing yards per game. Compare completion percentage. Rushing touchdowns. Turnovers. When you add it all up, statistically how does Reed stack up? Comparable for sure. It would be ridiculous to argue Zappe was statistically worse than Reed, but Reed is holding his own.
A random stat that’s interesting to me is the Tops were only 2-of-6 on two-point conversions last season. A small sample size, but an interesting tidbit. A remarkable stat for Munson, here: 111 kickoffs, three kicks out of bounds. Less than 3% of the time, he cost his team significantly. Over half of the time, he was putting the ball into the end zone for a touchback.
Obviously, DeAngelo Malone stands out immediately with his ridiculous numbers well above the rest of the team in almost everything. Mr. Consistent, Antwon Kincade, was an amazing player, but if you notice, he was not an explosive player. He was where he was supposed to be and he cleaned up a lot of mess, but he was never going to light up the turnover column or the TFL tally.
Western had a ton of sacks last season, but no one was really a sack master, so to speak. Even Malone was not in double digits. It was more by committee and by scheme. Forecasting into 2022, although the Tops lost some flashy numbers and the top two tacklers, despite that fact, nine of the top 14 tacklers returned for the 2022 season, Will Ignont was injured for three games to end the year, and A.J. Brathwaite is yet to really see the field besides the first game against Austin Peay this season.
Perhaps in hindsight, WKU had a very strong core returning.
Also, how about the kickoff guy, Munson, recording seven tackles himself. Incredible work ethic, and honestly that seems silly, but that is a huge number of tackles for a kicker. Very often, he was making the play inside the 30 yard line himself.
Analyzing the 2021 Hilltoppers
We highlighted the strengths, right? We all know those. DeAngelo Malone. Bailey Zappe. Wide receivers galore. Offensive line. Defensive pressure. Turnovers forced. Special Teams. Antwon Kincade.
Now, why did WKU struggle to win at times? There were several areas of concern for WKU, both positionally and statistically as a whole. Going down the list, quarterback was as good as possible. Wide receiver, check. Tight end…with Joshua Simon out, WKU used Dalvin Smith and Joey Beljan as reasonable producers in the red zone. However, everywhere else, the position was non-existent statistically. Running back was the other offensive weakness. Although Whittington ended up being fairly consistent late in the season, he still wasn’t a threat to rush for 100 yards.
Defensively, although Malone was incredible, the defensive line lacked another consistent producer. Juwuan Jones, at times, was really good but was not the consistent disruptor that he showed potential for early in his time on The Hill. Michael Pitts, Brodric Martin, and Jeremy Darvin also provided a decent amount of depth. But no one really stood out down to down next to Malone. Early in the year, he really was all alone out there making ridiculous play after play, some of which people probably didn’t notice.
Linebacker was a struggle last season. Due to injury and a lack of experience at WKU, it took a while for that unit to jell, and even after they came together, they still weren’t top-shelf productive in terms of an expectation you would hope would be standard for linebackers.
In the back end, obviously defensive backs contributed to turnovers, but the relatively inexperienced Brathwaite, a newly transferred Khalef Hailassee, along with the diminutive Beanie Bishop (who started and transferred) really struggled in battles against big receivers. As a secondary, Western just really struggled against the pass. Perhaps it was a development thing, a matchup thing because of Bishop or some other issue, but 2021 was a perfect storm for a vulnerable Topper secondary in one on one scenarios, especially outside of the numbers on fade and go routes.
In terms of team statistics, WKU’s main defensive weakness was getting off of the field, and the main offensive strength was being nearly unstoppable in a majority of their drives. On special teams, WKU was very good to excellent in most areas besides punt coverage as we talked about above.
The combination was a really interesting one. WKU had winnable games against Army, Indiana, and UTSA. Western even made a good showing against highly ranked Michigan State, coming back in the second half to pull within a couple of scores before losing by 17. All four of those games were losses to begin the year. A 59-21 performance against UT-Martin was the lone positive for WKU in the win column early.
Then WKU went on a heck of a run, winning eight of its final nine games. Western played much better defense for the most part, but when WKU ran into both UTSA and Appalachian State in the last two games, both offenses were able to produce enough points to win. Appalachian State just ran into a perfect offensive performance from WKU. UTSA got a huge lead and held on against the Tops in the Conference USA Championship Game.
The Hilltoppers had a strange dichotomy between an offense in combination with special teams that guaranteed at least 30 points and a defense that if facing an offense that could keep pace with WKU’s ridiculous production, the Tops could be in trouble. If the team the Tops were facing had a good defense, they also had some hope that they could keep WKU in the 30s and squeak out a win.
WKU’s defense was so bad overall that WKU scored no less than 31 points last season and still lost five games. Still, the offense and special teams kept WKU near championship level.
The 2022 Hilltoppers
Heading into this season, there were several deep, legitimate concerns about this roster. Quarterback was your number one concern, although WKU seemingly had decent options there and it’s turned out swimmingly. Defensive end was your next biggest concern. Linebacker was bad last year, mainly due to injury. Safety. Starting corner. Offensive line. Wide receiver. Running back. Tight end. All of those were concerns on some level.
After four games of increasingly good football, it really is difficult to pick apart this team and complain about much. This may be the most magnificent balance of ability at WKU in a long time. All of a sudden, Western can play defense and is actually able to stop somebody without luck. Three and outs are a thing. Offensively, Austin Reed is yet another really good WKU QB, this time with an ability and desire to run. Zappe could run, but usually didn’t. Reed likes to run the ball some. And he may have more pure arm strength than Zappe.
Against FIU, Reed threw the ball 45 yards down the field on a rope right through Daewood Davis’ hands. Not only is Reed the story, but Western has what legend calls “a running game”. Western’s receivers are starting to produce like they should. The tight ends are really good and productive. The offensive line is not only pretty good, but it’s actually on pace to be better than last season.
Ironically, special teams seems to be the most major concern for the Tops moving forward. Of course, this unit may not play a factor in every single game, but it’s absolutely been the shakiest of the three units without question. A kicker barely kicking above 50%, a kickoff guy kicking it out of bounds nearly as much as he did all last season in one game, a punter with a propensity to kick it short, and a returner without the best of hands keep this WKU team human in this one area.
When looking at these stats, remember WKU is still only four games into the season. For example, Western just dropped in a 73-0 effort to skew every one of these numbers more deeply in their favor. But still, let’s look at the overall trends.
One immediate thing that stands out from this is balance. WKU is getting some first downs picked up by running the ball. Another amazing statistical flip from 2021-22 that perhaps no one predicted is WKU is outperforming its opponents on the ground by 60+ yards per game. Who had that on their bingo card? I didn’t. I thought WKU could be better, but I didn’t have this team pegged as a top 35 (32nd) rushing defense.
Running straight down the sheet above, notice that WKU is not as prolific through the air. That’s an obvious one. However, WKU is still the 11th-most prolific passing offense in the country this season.
Here’s a huge one: WKU’s defense is averaging giving up 337 yards per game. Last season, WKU only had four defensive outings at less than that number, and the lowest number all season was 290 yards. Western bested that effort (also against FIU) by 110 yards Saturday. What am I saying? WKU’s defense will have to completely implode to not be lightyear’s better than last year’s defense.
Finally, the most amazing, shocking statistic for me is the sacks: WKU is on pace to match its sacks defensively from last season (36) while also being on pace to outperform the historic 2021 line by only giving up 11 or 12 sacks. Can these numbers hold up? No idea, but the fact that this O-Line is even close to last year’s unit is absolutely incredible.
One immediate observation in the running game is both production (Kye Robichaux is up to nearly half of Whittington’s 2021 production) and explosion (multiple players with 20+ yard runs). In the passing game, Reed has found his stride, so far throwing for over 73% completions, four percent better than Zappe (hold your horses on crowning him the accuracy king just yet!) last season.
In the passing game, I see balance, and I also see tight ends contributing significantly. When tight ends are producing, you have to like your ability to control the middle of the field offensively. Josh Simon, Dalvin Smith and Joey Beljan are each contributing big plays each game. Beljan is now back at his more comfortable role of being a blocker and occasionally making a play in the passing game.
In the receiver room, I see the combination of Malachi Corley and Davis as being just as dangerous as Sterns and Tinsley. The stats aren’t on the same level, but they’re absolutely two forces to be reckoned with. In addition, the Michael Mathison, Jaylen Hall and Craig Burt Jr. production is starting to show up as some real receiver depth.
Again, statistics are an indication, but ultimately, when the time comes, can WKU rely on its top four or five receivers to make plays? Early in the season, I would have probably said that I wasn’t sure. Now I think you’ve got enough production from not only receivers but tight ends and running backs that it’s going to be really difficult for defenses to figure out who they want to stop in the passing game.
On the right side, notice the number of kickoff returns: 16 to 2. Part of that is the opponent either kicking it out of bounds or kicking it for a touchback. The other part is WKU’s dominance in the kicking game, and also Munson has enhanced a really nice sky ball that fools opponents into fielding a kick (and not calling for a fair catch) and then only returning those 16 kicks for an average of less than 15 yards per return.
The major negative here is field goal kicking at 5-of-8. That’s very pedestrian, and the concerning part is really missing a 26-yarder. You can’t miss too many of those and not bring heat upon yourself. Scoring-wise, notice the balance. The only standout there is Corley, who is on pace to score more than 15 touchdowns. Everyone else is contributing, including interestingly enough, Reed himself: His three rushing touchdowns are equivalent to Zappe’s total for all of 2021.
There are a couple of other things I notice: Tom Ellard has been pretty good! Averaging a shade over 43 yards per punt is above average in college football. With zero touchbacks, it’s also nice to see that for the most part, he’s allowing his team to keep most of those yards when he sends the ball away. Also, a testament to how good WKU has been, Western’s opponents have been way above average on special teams, outkicking the Tops in every area, including 7-of-7 on field goals, all of which are no shorter than 32-yard attempts. That should even out and WKU should get the bounce on special teams for once.
A lot of this has been covered elsewhere, but notice the balance and notice a running back sitting at second most productive on the team. Running backs last year were well down the list, and I also believe each of the three main running backs are capable of catching out of the backfield, something they have not shown much of yet. That could certainly be an area of improvement for Offensive Coordinator Ben Arbuckle.
My goodness, isn’t this pretty? Hailassie is proving his couple of sacks last year were no fluke. He is clearly gifted in timing his cat blitz opportunities and cashing in on some backfield destruction. JaQues Evans flew under the radar last year, but he’s doing anything but that this year as the leading tackler, replacing Malone in a dynamic way. Derrick Smith and Ignont have done a really good job being involved in the second level for the Tops, as well. Jones had a huge game against Austin Peay and had a huge pick-six against Hawaii. He hasn’t done as much in the last two games. Hopefully he will pick his activity back up and be the superstar we’ve always hoped for.
As a team, the statistics that stand out are TFLs, sacks, and QB hits. All of that has to do with the pressure WKU puts on its opponent up front, and Western has clearly owned its opponent up front, making it easier to do with the back end, which WKU still struggles with at times.
Analyzing the 2022 Hilltoppers
A lot of the analysis has been put out there, so I will keep this section shorter. But breaking down this particular season’s squad, where is the weakness? I’m having trouble finding too many things to be worried about. I think the single biggest thing Western needs to worry about is third down on offense. If WKU could operate on third down like it did last season, watch out. That would mean higher numbers and more explosive offense.
This Topper defense, especially during the current run-and-shoot era of college football, is stacking up like one of the best Topper defenses in a long time. WKU already recorded its first shutout in over a decade. Western held an opponent under 200 yards for the first time in years. And the defense hasn’t forgotten how to make the opponent turn the ball over, either. Western is not only a down-to-down pest, but it’s also still the terrifying defense that can jump up and bite you for a crucial turnover.
On special teams, the Tops have some legitimate concerns, getting outperformed by the other team in nearly every game so far. If WKU is going to win a championship, the Tops need solid special teams. It doesn’t have to be spectacular, but they still need to be better than the opponent on most nights. If not, the opponent may steal a close game by winning the field position battle.
Comparing 2021-22: Who’s Better?
Quarterback: 2021 by less than you would think
It would be asinine to say Zappe isn’t better than Reed. However, Reed has come in and been really, really good. The Towel Rack has compared the two several times. Reed is right there with Zappe, and when you throw in his three touchdowns and 10-15 extra yards on the ground per game, Reed stacks up surprisingly well against Zappe.
Running Back: 2022 by a pretty wide margin
Without question, Western can run the ball and go win some games this year if they have to. That was impossible last year, or at least it definitely was for the first half of the year. Western nearly ran the clock out against Indiana in the second half two weeks ago, but Indiana was given just enough opportunity to come back. Regardless, Western’s running game seems like it can go at least four deep if they want to, although the prospect of saving true freshman L.T. Sanders has to be exciting going forward. Then again, the kid has played in three games already, so he’s only got one more before he burns his redshirt. Do Helton and Arbuckle have plans to include him in the rotation down the road?
Wide Receiver: 2021 by a wide margin
Pay your respects to Sterns and Tinsley, along with the guys from this year mostly contributing in backup roles. Those two guys were really good. However, the margin has really shrunk down from the beginning of the year when comparing these two groups. Corley and Davis are both proving to be two solid alpha dog options, but with the emergence of Mathison and Hall, you have to like the depth a little more than early on. Burt still continues to hang around, contributing here and there. If he would catch fire, it could take the receiving corps to the next level.
Tight End: 2022 by a landslide
No offense to Joey Beljan last year, but he really struggled to find himself for about two-thirds of the year last year. He was thrust into a leadership position, and he did fine in his role, but he was not meant to be the feature tight end for the Tops last season. He was able to sneak in some red zone touchdowns, mainly by really nice play design from the Tops. This year, WKU has three legitimate threats, all of which are well-rounded tight ends. Simon’s athleticism, Smith’s playmaking, and Beljan’s steadiness are really a beautiful combination.
Offensive Line: Very slightly to 2022
Believe it or not, so far, this year’s offensive line has been better. Now, is this because of a weaker schedule thus far? Maybe a little bit, but Indiana’s front seven was just as dangerous this year as they were last year, and WKU held them to one sack. Austin Peay has turned out to be a decent FCS team, but WKU handled them easily, too. FIU did muster two sacks, but one was more on Darius Ocean than the line. This is obviously still out for debate until the end of the year, but so far, somehow this O-Line is slightly better than 2021.
Offense Overall: 2021, but much closer than anticipated
Points-wise, the 2022 offense is more prolific so far. However, that number is massively skewed by 73 points in one game. However, WKU’s offense last season was next level. They could do anything, they were way, way better on third down, and Zappe was an alien. The rushing attack this year is much better, but WKU’s offense from last season averaged 30+ yards more per game than this year’s team, nearly setting multiple NCAA passing records.
Defensive Line: 2022 by a little bit
This is another surprise. You lose DeAngelo Malone and you get better? No way. Well, it’s happened. WKU has way more consistent pressure up front, really causing problems for the opposing quarterback half of the times he drops back to pass. If Malone had been allowed to play his true position all year, I think his stats would have been prettier. But selflessly, he essentially played more of a linebacker role, cleaning up messes the rest of the defensive line missed several times per game. This year, WKU has good end play and good interior guys. And the depth is there to just plug and chug. This is a close one, but I’ve got to give 2022 some love on this as a unit.
Linebackers: 2022 by a landslide
2021’s corps was wracked with injury, and because of a 4-2-5 setup, linebackers were not really able to produce on a high level, or at least the linebackers that were in needed to be at an All-Conference level. They weren’t most of the time, although Ignont and Evans made their presence felt some last year. However, they have come way more into their own, as well as adding serious depth in Smith and now grizzled veteran Jaden Hunter. The Tops are loaded at this position this season, and I believe that’s the single biggest reason for the defensive turnaround from year to year.
Secondary: 2022 by a slightish margin
One thing is for sure this year. These DBs are not getting absolutely smoked by bigger players. Hailassie is better than last year and Upton Stout has been a wonderful find. Brathwaite hasn’t even played much, but he will be great to have as another starting-caliber player when he returns. Kaleb Oliver has blossomed, producing two picks in one game and being all over the field in others. Western still has a few issues giving up big plays, but the back end is so much more solid in 2022. Looking back, Beanie Bishop was an undersized corner, and he could be picked on in a matchup with a big dude. WKU’s CBs and safeties are all much bigger, and it makes life a lot more difficult for a QB to squeeze the ball in around good length.
Defense Overall: 2022 and it’s not even close
The 2021 defense struggled mightily to ever hold anyone under 21. This team has already done it multiple times, and in their lone comparable game against a similar opponent, the way in which WKU was able to hold Indiana to 30 points in regulation was spectacular. In 2021, Indiana nearly beat themselves, missing passes left and right. Western forced Indiana to make plays, and in 2022, they just did enough to beat the Toppers. They did not perform well offensively in 2021 but still got the best of Western. If this defense keeps going as it is, Conference USA better watch out. This defense could possibly win some games without help.
Special Teams: 2021 and not that close
It’s early in the season, but I honestly thought the one sore spot would be Tom Ellard, but he’s been solid enough to not be a liability. Thus far, it’s been Narveson and some silly mistakes that have been the problem. 2021 featured historically good players on kickoff and at punter. Munson has not been as good this season thus far, but this entire unit is a piece of this team that could absolutely get better.
Offensive Coaching: 2021 but it’s very close
Give credit to Zach Kittley, who worked with very little elite talent in the running game and still put out the most effective offense in the country. This year, Ben Arbuckle is doing a good job, and for the most part, his offense has been very solid and balanced. The great surprise here is how close this comparison seems to be. I really like Ben Arbuckle thus far.
Defensive Coaching: 2022 and it’s not even close
Have you ever listened to someone and just said, “Wow!”? When Tyson Summers speaks, I hear an amazing man that you just want to believe in. Maurice Crum was in a little bit over his head, calling plays for the first time, and admitted that he had a lot of tough lessons to learn from his long days at the office early in the season. Tyson Summers has this defense flying around. Give him some serious credit.
Which team is better overall? Thus far, 2022
I listed off 14 categories. 2022’s version is better in nine of 14 of them. Perhaps the more interesting part is that even in the categories 2022 was not as good in, the margins are much closer.
I keep saying it, but in football, you are much more defined and controlled by your weakest links, versus the superstars in other sports can make such a difference that they make up for a weak player here and there. Western is solid at every position, and the Tops’ only clear, concerning issue is third down conversions, and even that has been improving over the course of the young season.
WKU is 3-1. Last year at this time, they were 1-3. Western lost one more before going on a winning streak. To not best its 2021 record, the Tops are going to have to implode. WKU would absolutely have to be devastated everywhere not to hold on defensively and be better in that part of the game. Offensively, WKU just needs to be a few third downs better and they could arguably flirt with the same offensive numbers as 2021.
What’s scarier to opponents? A team that’s still going to score 30 but will probably hold opponents under 20? Or a team that’s more likely to score 40 but will also give up some chances for another good offense to hang around and steal the game?
I believe a team that can get stops is far more terrifying than a team that can score. There are unique challenges to that issue, but if your team is in a back-and-forth shootout, all your defense has to do is do what it does and get a couple of stops when it needs to. If you’re in the same shootout and your defense is awful, you’re waiting on the opponent to finally mess something up, while you still need to be perfect.
Western has gone from the third favorite in C-USA to possibly the favorite, and it’s because WKU may be the most complete team in C-USA. It remains to be seen whether this formula translates to a championship, but WKU is looking more in control of its destiny than it was last year.
Can WKU put it together to make another run at a championship?