WKU Football: Tops Crash Back To Earth in 34-27 Loss to Trojans
We'll always have the 73-0 hype week to look back on as the Tops' offense looked pedestrian in their first home loss of the season.
Western Kentucky faced an old foe at The Houch Saturday and needed a game-winning two-minute drill to keep their scoring streak alive and force overtime (or, maybe, go for the win: I honestly don’t know which option Tyson Helton would have opted for).
The Tops marched 52 yards in 55 seconds, moving the ball seemingly at will against Troy until the Trojans brought the house on a second and eight, and a linebacker blitz swatted the ball out of Austin Reed’s hands, with the Trojans falling on it and sealing the deal on a 34-27 win.
The loss marked the first time in 18 games the Hilltoppers failed to score 30 points.
Saturday’s game came down to the following two facts: Troy had been in dog fights in each of the previous two weeks, having been on the wrong side of a miracle two weeks ago and grinded out a win against Marshall last week. They had been there, and done that, and knew what it took to compete.
The Hilltoppers, however, were flying high, coming off a breezy win in which their starters got to hit the showers midway through the third quarter and hadn’t been battled tested much prior to that point and, in their one test, the folded like a tent and fell in overtime.
While some (myself included) thought this would give an edge to the Hilltoppers, the opposite was true: The Tops had to learn how to play in a game that was close from start to finish while it was just another week for the Trojans.
As Advertised
Just about everything that happened last night was foretold, either by your friendly neighborhood Towel Rack staff or our pals over at The Trojan Wall.
What is the strength of the Troy team? Defense - check
What would have to happen for the Trojans to log the upset road victory? Force Austin Reed to make mistakes - check
These teams are mirrors of each other - check, check and check.
The tale of the tape is told in the final box score:
Of the 18 categories listed above, the Tops and Trojans were neck-and-neck in over half of them: The Trojans committed two fewer penalties while the Hilltoppers converted three more third downs.
Both teams converted twice on fourth down and averaged 5.5 yards per play.
Troy held the edge in average yards per completion and rush and while both teams were perfect in the red zone, Troy had more opportunities in what was undoubtedly the difference in the game.
Even time of possession tells you how even this game was, and if not for the game-sealing fumble from Reed in the final two minutes, the Tops would have had an edge there, too.
The two biggest differences are both in favor of the Trojans, and probably help tell the tale of how they were able to win: Tackles for loss and rushing yards.
Make no mistake about the latter, WKU wasn’t a slouch in getting pressure in the Trojan backfield, it’s just the tackles that did go for a loss felt minimal. Meanwhlie, when the Trojans logged a TFL, you felt it. It swung the momentum of the series and stalled the Hilltoppers.
As for that second point? Well…
No Chaux
The Hilltoppers 64 rushing yards was the lowest of the season to this point and the Tops attempted to establish the run late enough in the game that it felt like it threw off the whole vibe to the offense.
Kye Robichaux led the team in rushing, but had just 50 rushing yards, a number that has worked in this style of the Tops’ offense before, but didn’t get it done this week.
Despite the run game’s struggles, the Hilltoppers actually used play-action efficiently, meaning they had to force Troy to continue respecting the run game even when it wasn’t working up to par.
The one strength of the running game was Reed’s called draw plays. I’d love to see that utilized more and it’s what can make a WKU rushing game so dynamic: You have to respect the Tops’ passing attack so you’re most likely not going to blitz or load the box, which makes Reed using his legs all the more advantageous for WKU.
Would love to see Robichaux have a strong bounce-back week next week, but the rushing attack was maybe the biggest let down of the game.
The Big Picture
Make no mistake, this loss takes a bit of the wind out of the sails pushing the Tops after last week. But a close loss followed by a blowout win can do that.
But, let’s not loose sight of the bigger picture: The following is all still in play:
Undefeated in conference play
Conference USA championship
10+ win season
As we wake up Saturday morning, the Hilltoppers are one of just five CUSA teams to have 0 conference losses. Aside from that, the preseason picture of who is a contender and who isn’t has been flipped on its head early in the conference year, too: UAB lost to Rice, UTSA had to fend off a furious late MTSU comeback, and North Texas is 2-0 (!!!).
The long-term, big-picture goals are still in reach. WKU has a couple of things to tighten up, but Saturday’s result shouldn’t shift the goal posts on season expectations too much.
That said, we must also say this: The next three weeks (potentially four) will decide what kind of season the Tops will have. UTSA, MTSU and UAB have been circled since the season started as the stretch that’ll decide the top of the C-USA standings and, following that trio of games is North Texas, a game that is looking more and more important.
This next month is the heart of the schedule and if the Tops tighten up the loose ends that began to show against the Trojans, there’s no reason we aren’t talking about this team in the same light we do teams late in the Taggert era and the best of the Brohm Squad.
Red Threads
A few more quick, final thoughts on the Tops’ first home loss of the season.
Michael Mathison is quickly becoming a favorite target of Reed. He has climbed into second on the team in catches this year (28) and his average isn’t that of Daewood Davis, Malachi Corley or even Jaylen Hall, but it' is respectable (9.8) and his coast-to-coast touchdown shows just how deep this WKU receiving corps can be. He also led the Tops in receiving Saturday, logging 160 yards on nine catches. We spent the first month of the season thinking it would be a two-man show, but Mathison is making it harder and harder to ignore this is a three-headed monster, at least.
I firmly believe the Hilltoppers felt shaky on offense because they were unable to get Corley as involved as they had in previous weeks: He caught just four of his nine targets and finished with 23 yards and was kept out of the end zone. While I haven’t gone back to review the tape and see if those five no-catches are on him or just Reed overthrows, Corley definitely didn’t feel like much of a factor. They’re going to need him next week, so hopefully this week was just a blip on what will be an otherwise standout season for him.
Here’s maybe the most unfun stat of all time: Under Tyson Helton, the Hilltoppers have had four home games with an attendance of 20,000 or more (everything wrong with that statement is an entirely different article, but I’ll TL;DR it here: WKU fans, and more specifically the BG community, have to do a better job of supporting this team). In those games, WKU has lost all but one of these games: In 2019, it was Louisville. Last year it was Indiana. And now Saturday. The lone win in front of a large WKU crowd was in 2019, the week after the Louisville game, where the Tops edged out a 20-13 win vs. UAB.
After sleeping on the loss, I’m actually much more impressed with WKU than I was as soon as I turned the game off following Reed’s fumble. Think about it: WKU’s offense looked that pedestrian, the defense allowed what they did against one of the worst rushing attacks in the country and still had themselves a chance to take down a team that still could very well win the Sun Belt West. Call me a homer, and I know there’s no room for moral victories, but that to me is the sign of a good team: They’re still competitive even when everything isn’t firing on all cylinders.
At the very least, we know how WKU would stack up against Marshall, who only mustered one touchdown against Troy in their loss to them.